What's In A Workshop?

Jim Stevens ([email protected])

Burlington, VT. (Oct. 22, 1998) -- In the tradition of the Foolish Workshop founder, tonight I offer a rundown of all that's offered here in da 'shop and a quick summary of the results of the eight Foolish Workshop model portfolios since January.

Set your bookmarks or favorite places. Right here at Foolish Workshop Central, you get nightly updates from a variety of Fools on investing using mechanical and not-quite-so-mechanical screening techniques. Along the edge of the page you'll find paths to the various Workshop features.

TMF Bogey and his elves post fresh rankings every Friday for each of the eight screens. These are the stocks that make the cut for each model as of the most recent issues of the Value Line Investment Survey and Investor's Business Daily. The Screen Explanations link takes you to the step-by-step procedures followed in selecting the stocks in each model. For someone investing on a different starting date than January 1, the Workshop Rankings is where you'd go to get the current picks.

At the Workshop Returns page you'll find the performance numbers for the eight mechanical models as (hypothetically) purchased at the December 31, 1997 closing prices. Each model port contains ten securities "bought" in equal dollar amounts and will be tracked for an entire year (returns updated weekly). Tracking is done even though some models aren't necessarily suited for a one year holding period. That's part of what we can learn from watching these paper investments.

Also each week, the Foolish Database is updated to the current stocks and screening parameters. From this list we get the current picks for all the tracked models except Keystone. The database can also be used to try out the new or combination screening theories that any Fool might think up. Download and go crazy with it. Besides all that, you'll find the UG History page, which is the window into the past for this popular monthly model.

Finally, there are the stock screens. These are some purely fundamental screens, based on company balance sheets and analyst estimates, that are updated by TMF Rockie.

This is what we have now. Please stay tuned as we look into ways to make the place even more interactive and to offer even more information and data to the Subjective Stock Selection-challenged.

Now for the performance update. How have the models been doing this year? Some good, some not so good, and others total bow-wows. Up through the most current returns period, only three out of eight are in the black. The large-cap Keystone model is the only one with returns above the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Here's how they look:

 
  23.33   Keystone 
   3.62   S&P 500 Index 
   2.73   RS - IBD 
   0.45   IFG - Relative Strength 
  -6.19   IFG - Classic 
 -11.75   Formula 90 
 -19.67   RS - 26 Week 
 -21.90   Unemotional Growth 
 -31.08   Low PSR
While a few of them don't look all that inspiring now, only a few short months ago we were in the heat of the bull market and nearly every model was above the benchmark. Historically we get two good years in the market for every bad one, so models that burn brightest in upwardly trending markets can eclipse a fair amount of underperformance during the downturns (extra strength Maalox not included). I think it's worth pointing out that the Keystone model, which is soundly thumping the benchmark, is the most recent official refinement of the Workshop lineup -- thank you, Mr. Sheard.

And, lest I forget, the most riveting feature of the whole Workshop is the Message Boards. They are where Workshop veterans and newbies alike gather to trade knowledge, ideas, research, and experiences. If you haven't been there and checked out some of the great posts, new screen ideas, and volunteer backtests, try it out. It rocks!

Check out the latest file updates for the Workshop:
New Rankings | 1998 Returns | New Database