Numbers and Spark5

by David Forrest (David Forrest)

Boise, ID. (Oct. 9, 1998) -- Happy weekend, Fools. I am very happy to report that after several difficult weeks of using a bad Value Line disk, I finally have things exactly as they should be and all of our database and ranking updates (up by 7:00 p.m.) are correct. Thanks to everyone who has helped me. Of course, if I did mess up somehow, please feel free to flame me on the message boards. :)

Let me also thank Jim Stevens and Ethan Haskel (Cormend), who have done wonderfully since starting in these past weeks. Last night, Jim brought everyone up to date on the monthly UG numbers. Make sure to check out the most up-to-date returns. Jim also said something in the column last night that has been a hot topic on the message boards. Jim wrote:

I saw some discussion on the message boards that questioned whether the electronic Value Line data should match up with the weekly print version. I was pretty sure they were one and the same for the week they get published. I double-checked with Value Line -- the print edition that gets mailed every Thursday is the same as Friday's downloadable data.

Well, it seems that Jim and I have been getting conflicting information from Value Line lately. So, to extra-special double-check, I called Value Line customer service (1-800-654-0508) to get the final skinny on all this. The person I spoke with told me that the print and electronic editions are indeed different. The print data, as I had previously suspected, is over a week old, while the electronic data is just 2 days old. The fellow said to me: "It'd be impossible to update the print like we do the electronic because of the fact that we have to mail it." Hopefully, this will put the data discrepancy debate to bed, for now.

I also asked the Value Line representative what the deal was with the High Growth page used to do the IFG Classic and IFG-RS screens. He told me that the print edition lists only 100 stocks meeting Value Line's High Growth criteria while the electronic edition lists more than 200. This explains why we list more stocks for IFG than you might get if only using the print edition of Value Line. Hopefully this helps clear up that confusion, as well.

Now, with all of that dust being cleared, let's talk about some fun stuff. Starting today, I'm going to keep track of a Spark5 Dozens portfolio and report on it each week. I'll update it with the other Dozens portfolios at the end of each month. According to Sparfarkle, as of September 30, the Spark5 lists consists of:

Dell Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %>
Warner Lambert <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WLA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WLA)") end if %>
Nokia <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NOK.A)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NOK.A)") end if %>
EMC Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EMC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EMC)") end if %>
Gap <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GPS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GPS)") end if %>

So, using the September 30 closing prices, we'll add 15 shares of Dell at $65.75. Each month we'll add a new stock and use a fictional $1000 to invest. We'll figure commissions at $8 and use the closing price of the stock. With the Nasdaq getting hammered lately, it's no small wonder that the first few weeks of the Spark5 Dozens have been rough. Dell is down more than 20% in a week or so. One week doesn't a portfolio make, of course, so let's see what happens in the next few months... and years. If you'd like to learn more about the Spark5, check out a recent column on the subject.

Finally, let me close out by mentioning that the accumulation/distribution column has been added back into the database. Oddly enough, there were only 2 stocks with "A" rankings this week, Amgen and Biogen. Of course, both of these are biotechs and have been holding up pretty well.

Take care,
David

Check out the latest file updates for the Workshop:
New Rankings | 1998 Returns | New Database