Fool.com: Do You UG? (Workshop) October 8, 1998

Do You UG?

Burlington, VT. (Oct. 8, 1998) -- The monthly Unemotional Growth model is a Workshop mainstay. Tonight I'll take a look at the last two months' performance. Last Friday ended the official September reporting period and, as has been the case before, the recent two month market slump hasn't been kind to this model. Here's the stats.

The UG5 lost 9.63% for August and the UG10 did nearly twice as bad, suffering an 18.37% decline on the month. That pulled the year to date 1998 returns for the two models down to 2.42% and -12.89%, respectively. Below is a list of the individual stock performances. Read 'em and weep.

 
 Dell Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %>  2.10% 
 HBO & Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HBOC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HBOC)") end if %>     -9.91% 
 PeopleSoft <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PSFT)") end if %>   -22.29% 
 Papa John's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PZZA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PZZA)") end if %>   -4.44% 
 Anchor Gamng <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SLOT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SLOT)") end if %> -13.59% 
 Lexmark Int'l <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LXK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LXK)") end if %>   -16.73% 
 Dollar Tree <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DLTR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DLTR)") end if %>  -27.49% 
 Keane Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: KEA)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: KEA)") end if %>     -16.89% 
 Robert Half <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: RHI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: RHI)") end if %>     -27.76% 
 Tellabs <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TLAB)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TLAB)") end if %>      -46.66%

September saw the hemorrhaging slow with the 5 stock version down 1.57% and the UG10 stocks off an average of 2.37% for the period bookended by the September 4 and October 2 market closes. The UG5 monthly was still barely in the black for the year at 0.81% last Friday, while the 10 stock UG sunk to a year to date 1998 loss of -14.95%. That compares to a year to date 3.31% return through October 2, 1998 for the stocks that comprise the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Here was the somewhat easier-to-take September tale of the tape:

 
 Dell <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %>          14.50% 
 Staples <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SPLS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SPLS)") end if %>        2.61% 
 HBO & Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HBOC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HBOC)") end if %>      7.00% 
 Anchor Gamng <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SLOT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SLOT)") end if %> -10.13% 
 PeopleSoft <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PSFT)") end if %>   -21.82% 
 Lexmark Intl 'A' <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LXK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LXK)") end if %> 21.93% 
 Keane Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: KEA)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: KEA)") end if %>     -23.95% 
 Dollar Tree <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DLTR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DLTR)") end if %>    6.45% 
 CKE Restaurants <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CKR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CKR)") end if %> -16.48% 
 Robert Half <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: RHI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: RHI)") end if %>      -3.78%

Unfortunately, folks, October is starting out awfully bloody as well. Who knows what's to come, but this model has been known to rage out of the hole. The long-term record is fabulous, but T-bills they are not, Fools. Hang on to your caps!

Normally you'd find the current month's stocks for the Unemotional Growth monthly model listed here along with this monthly recap -- I know, I know, we missed a month -- but this month I'll take this space to mention a word of caution about the workshop rankings David Forrest (TMF Bogey) has been doing the Workshop Database updates and screening for the various models for the last two weeks. He tells me that there is a glitch in the Value Line data disk we use that he is working feverishly to solve. It's always a good idea to run the screens yourself when you commit real money, until the glitch is fixed this is especially important.

Another housekeeping item. I saw some discussion on the message boards that questioned whether the electronic Value Line data should match up with the weekly print version. I was pretty sure they were one and the same for the week they get published. I double-checked with Value Line -- the print edition that gets mailed every Thursday is the same as Friday's downloadable data. Screening with the current print version and the Friday Investor's Business Daily should yield the same results as the workshop rankings for that week. Please post any errors you might come across on the Foolish Workshop message board.

See ya!

Check out the latest file updates for the Workshop:
New Rankings | 1998 Returns | New Database