The Motley Fool: The Foolish Workshop, Tuesday, January 13, 1998

Tuesday, January 13, 1998

The Daily Workshop Report
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)

LEXINGTON, KY. (Jan. 13, 1998) -- I'm still cleaning up end-of-1997 matters in my databases, so let's get to the final numbers for the 1997 Keystone Model.

We have a dozen years of historical data behind us now for Keystone and the results have been sweet to be sure. The following table compares the annualized returns from 1986 through 1997 for the two Keystone groups (five- and ten-stock versions) with the S&P 500 (including dividends) and the popular Beating the Dow five- and ten-stock variations.

28.4%  Keystone 5 
 25.5%  Keystone 10 
 18.7%  Beating the Dow 10 
 18.6%  Beating the Dow 5 
 17.0%  S&P 500 Index

To put that in monetary terms, let's look at how a hypothetical $10,000 investment on January 1, 1986 would have ended the year in 1997 (excluding commissions and taxes):

$201,445  Keystone 5 
 $152,798  Keystone 10 
   $78,062  Beating the Dow 10 
   $77,526  Beating the Dow 5 
   $65,880  S&P 500 Index

The specific 1997 results are as follows:

 7.5%  Intel <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %> 
 90.1%  Compaq Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CPQ)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CPQ)") end if %> 
 56.4%  Microsoft <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") end if %> 
 79.7%  Travelers Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TRV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TRV)") end if %> 
 49.2%  BankAmerica <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BAC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BAC)") end if %> 
 53.8%  Freddie Mac <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FRE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FRE)") end if %> 
 30.4%  Gillette <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: G)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: G)") end if %> 
 24.9%  Citicorp <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CCI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CCI)") end if %> 
 35.6%  Merck <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MRK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MRK)") end if %> 
 19.5%  Monsanto <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MTC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MTC)") end if %> 
  
 56.6%  Keystone 5 
 44.7%  Keystone 10 
 33.2%  S&P 500 Index

On an administrative note, we've received a number of e-mails from readers wondering why we haven't been updating the Workshop rankings and returns in 1998. Actually, we have been doing so, but we've changed the format of the Workshop files this year to make them much more streamlined, both for readers and for me to maintain.

There are currently five main files in the Workshop you would use in following the 1998 Workshop.

Current Screen Rankings
Current Database
1998 Returns
Screen Explanations
Unemotional Growth History

The first three files are updated every Friday afternoon (not daily or monthly as we did last year). The fourth file is permanent and is simply a reference file explaining how we generate the rankings for each of the eight screens.

The final file is the month-by-month history for Unemotional Growth, which I'm following separately. UG was originally designed as a monthly strategy, but to keep all eight of our Workshop models consistent, we're following all of them on an annual basis. To keep the original monthly UG history going, I'm following it in this separate file for those who follow it.

Fool on!