This Week in Airlines
by Holly Hegeman (TMF Wings)

Dallas, TX (June 9, 1997)--Foolish readers, ever have one of those days? Well I had one of those days yesterday -- when -- just as it was almost completed -- the entire weekly update was lost, due to a system crash and resulting file damage. Now, you know when something like this happens you can 1) calmly keep trying to tell yourself that it is okay--that you can just work another eight hours and everything will be just peachy, 2) go walk around the block -- 100 times, 3) go buy a 12-pack instead of a six- pack, or 4) take a gun and just blow the &%$# thing to bits. (My thanks to my friend Greysen West, who also just happens to be the patient person who mails these out to all of you on our mailing list. He gave me that last suggestion. I think it wins.)

Update as of Monday morning: Forget blowing up the machine--its the AOL software. Don't ever try to put a piece of copy that contains hyperlinks in an AOL memo document. No further comment necessary.

My sincere Foolish apologies for the delay!

TMF Wings' Weekly Market Update

Bottomline? The Dow Jones Industrial Average set ANOTHER record on Friday, as it bounced up 130 points to close at 7,435.78, beating the old mark of 7,383.41 set on May 27. The increase was the sixth largest in point terms and gave the Dow a gain of 104.74 points for the week.

Yes, another record. While jobs figures issued on Friday indicated that unemployment was still dropping (what would usually be seen as an indicator of possible inflation), other recent economic information indicates the economy is slowing. Result? Most Wall Street analysts are taking the approach that this means everything is still "GO" for the stock market.

Just a cautionary note here, however, for this sector. Some things on the horizon you need to remember. One, earnings will be hard pressed to beat last year' s numbers because of the federal tax implementation. Two, this is the time of year, when traditionally, airline stocks will fall off or languish a bit, and three, there is still a fight going on over the tax bill on Capitol Hill. The major airlines are lobbying hard to get Congress to change the way the money used for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is collected from the carriers. If Congress changes the way this tax is collected it would impact the bottomline of smaller carriers much more than the larger carriers. SOUTHWEST AIRLINES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LUV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LUV)") end if %> is lobbying hard against any change.

Stay tuned.

Our Motley Flyers had a particularly good week, as most of the airlines we track posted gains this last week. Thursday and Friday were especially good for most of the Winged-Ones. How come, you say? Well, let me tell you. First, the consensus -- after the GAO come out with its recommendations, and after hearings were held in Washington on Wednesday -- is that something is going to be worked out in terms of the BRITISH AIRLINES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BAB)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BAB)") end if %> and AMERICAN AIRLINES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AMR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AMR)") end if %> alliance. More on this in a bit. Both American shares and ADR's of British Airlines have a very good week as a result.

In addition, Goldman Sachs put out upgrades on CONTINENTAL AIRLINES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CAI/B)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CAI/B)") end if %> and US AIRWAYS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: U)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: U)") end if %> on Thursday. Goldman also unloaded some 3.5 million shares of US Airways stock on Thursday. (On May 22, as we discussed, British Airways entered a pact with Goldman Sachs to sell the carrier's remaining 14.46 million shares of US Airways for $499 million, or $34.50 a share.) It is speculated that this 3.5 million block was the last of the shares Goldman had to dispose of.

Contract? What contract? Have YOU seen the contract?

Just when you thought everything was over with what seemed like the Hundred Years War with American Airlines and its pilots, guess what? No, it is not safe to go into the water -- just yet. For you see, there is a little problem. Remember that contract that the members of the Air Line Pilots Association (APA) recently voted to accept? The one that the board of the APA had voted on and sent to the membership for a vote?

Well, there is STILL no "official" contract.

Did the dog eat it?

No, apparently the story goes a little like this. Apparently American is now waffling on some of the language pertaining to the issue of overtime. This was a particularly bitter issue in the proposed agreement, and I find it incredible that there is STILL negotiation on this issue. I mean, what was voted on anyway? Did the members of the APA just vote on a "suggested" contract? I think not.

In addition, there is that new Scope Clause, which I have always thought was a nightmare, and the WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) test. (This is the one that is supposedly going to be used to determine whether a route should be flown by American, American Eagle or whomever). Both of these are subject to much interpretation, and apparently now there is some "tinkering" going on with these as well.

Supposedly once it is "signed" it will be posted electronically on the APA website. It is then American's responsibility to provide a printed copy to each pilot and the airline estimates this will be about three weeks after completion.

Meanwhile, Jim Sovich was not re-elected as President of the APA, (there is a run-off to determine his successor) the Chicago APA base has two new representatives, the Chair of the Washington crew base has resigned, and three people on the APA Negotiating Committee have resigned.

You know, I just have one thing to say to the folks at APA -- I'm glad to see a change in leadership on its way. And to the folks at American -- unbelievable, guys, just unbelievable.

And to the pilots at American Airlines, my sympathies.

Okay--so now maybe it will be the United Shuttle? Or would that be Shuttle by United..Part Two?

Speaking of American-related issues (and we have to admit, a lot of news centers around the offices at Centreport this week) United Air Lines <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UAL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UAL)") end if %> said Monday it too is considering making a bid to buy the US Airways Shuttle but has not yet reached a decision.

"We've been investigating the possibility of acquiring the US Airways Shuttle for more than a year," United spokesman Tony Molinaro said. "However, we have not yet determined whether or not we will make a bid."

He said that United has spoken with its banks, as well as unions at both United and US Airways about a possible purchase. As we mentioned last week, American Airlines has already made an offer on the Shuttle.

United stock was flat this past week, ending at $77 3/4.

Proposed American/ BA alliance: Branson labels Ayling and Crandall as "jewel thieves"

For those of you who did not see it, the testimony on Capitol Hill before the Aviation Subcommittee of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee on Wednesday was great theater. Why? Well, if for nothing else than to watch Richard Branson, Chairman and CEO of Virgin Atlantic Airways (who always looks as if he just rolled out of bed, or is about to roll into bed), sitting next to that epitome of Mr. Airline Executive himself, Robert Crandall, Chairman and CEO of American Airlines. If there was ever a poster shot made for the headline "Rock and Roll Meets Godzilla" this was it.

Branson of course was there to tell everyone of his opposition to the proposed alliance of American and British Air. Stephen Wolf, CEO of US Airways was also there, but was relatively quiet, yet firm in his opposition, compared to the always vocal and usually dramatic Branson. Branson warned the members of the subcommittee that, unless checked by some form of public scrutiny, Robert Ayling, Chief Executive Officer of British Airways, and Bob Crandall, Chairman of American Airlines, would " ... swoop in like a pair of international jewel thieves ... to snatch away the precious gem of competition in trans-Atlantic air services."

He continued in his distinctly British tones, "This committee is performing a valuable public service by helping to shed some light on what Mr. Crandall and Mr. Ayling hope will be a successful heist of that precious gem called competition. Consumers everywhere will thank you if you catch them in the act and restore the gem to its rightful owner -- the public," said Branson.

Here here! Give that man an Oscar!

Richard's protestations aside, the markets, as we have already mentioned, seem to see some light at the end of this year-long tunnel. The consensus on the Street seems to be that SOMETHING will be worked out. Rightly or wrongly, the sentiment propelled both stocks last week. American ended up 3% as it finally cracked the 100 level and stayed there, closing at $102, and ADR's of British Air were up 3% as well, closing at $121.

Couch potatoes -- YOU, too, can earn frequent flier miles!

And in what has to be the most bizarre piece of news to come across the TMF Wings' desk in a long time, we cannot end our little interrelated discussion about American Airlines without commenting on this last little snippet.

And I quote....."American Airlines and ABC announced a joint promotion this week, setting up the ABC AAdvantage Club as yet another way people can earn free miles redeemable for future air flights."

ABC viewers in the American Airlines program will be able to earn free miles by completing surveys that prove they have watched ABC shows. (TMF Wings' note: It's not immediately clear how many miles can be earned through the promotion -- I mean, if you sit there all day watching TV -- how in the world will you be able to fly anywhere anyway?)

ABC AAdvantage Club members will also be eligible for prizes like going backstage at an ABC program. [TMF Wings' note: OH, boy!--Doesn't this just have that ring of "Disneyesque" activity to it!] They will also be able to use earned miles to purchase ABC merchandise. [That's what I want--I want to take my AAdvantage miles and purchase my own copy of Monday Night Football's own Frank Gifford's new book, "Fear of Flying"....or is that "Fear of Flight Attendants? "]

Excuse me while I well... never mind. THIS giving out frequent flier miles for everything under the sun has gotten WAY out of hand.

So if airlines are making frequent flier miles so much more accessible, but making desirable seats more and more scarce--does this mean, in effect, there really is NO increase in their frequent flier account liabilities whatsoever?

Well...I'm still in shock. The thought of earning AAdvantage miles for watching Sam Donaldson is just too frightening for me.

TWA takes the marbles for the week

TWA took the honors as High-Flyer of the week as the stock posted a 17% gain to close at $10 3/16. Why? Well, much of the record volumes of activity on the stock suggest that Wall Street was happy to hear the comments of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) investigator who was all over the media last week talking about how the cause of the Flight 800 crash was mechanical, I suspect. Anything that shifts blame for the crash away from TWA will be seen as a positive for the carrier, and if you have watched this stock move over the last year, you will know that the more media talk there is about the crash, the more the stock responds -- both positively and negatively.

TWA also placed second this past month in the DOT on-time rankings. This was a significant improvement for the airline.

Atlas Air announces new aircraft purchase and gets upgraded

One of the advantages of getting an update out late is being able to include Monday morning news. As we talked about over a month ago, ATLAS AIR <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ATLS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ATLS)") end if %> bit the bullet and announced that it has signed a definitive agreement with Boeing to purchase ten 747-400 freighters.

Under the terms of the agreement, Atlas will purchase the ten new freighters, with the option to purchase an additional ten. Delivery of the firm aircraft will take place during a four year period beginning in 1998. The delivery schedule has been established for four aircraft in 1998, two aircraft in 1999, three aircraft in 2000 and the tenth aircraft in 2001.

In addition, Scott & Stringfellow upgraded the stock to "strong buy" from "hold" this morning, following the acquisition announcement.

Atlas was flat on the week last week to end at $28 3/4, but the stock was up and active this morning (Monday), with a recent quote of $31 1/2 on very heavy volume.

Will Skywest Be Doing the Two-Step with Delta...or United?

Last week we mentioned that SKYWEST <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SKYW)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SKYW)") end if %> had released impressive earnings results for the last quarter. Consensus analyst opinion had been that the carrier would break even. Not hardly, as the carrier posted a profit of $0.11 per share.

In talking with the Controller for Skywest, Mike Kraupp, this past week, two things came out of the discussion of possible interest for investors. One, as Skywest admitted this past week, they are talking to United about a possible codeshare arrangement. This gets just a bit complicated as they currently operate as a connection partner with both Delta and Continental. But I got the sense that they would really like to see this codeshare deal go through with United -- that it would be VERY favorable to the airline. In addition, if you take a closer look at their financials from last quarter, what you see is the beginning of the "RJ" effect in their expenses levels. The company is now, and will continue to see, the financial benefits of grounding the 19-seat Metros and of putting their EMB-120's and RJ's online. If you take out restructuring charges, the evidence is still there--their unit costs are going down. Kraupp sees this as continuing. In addition, he projects a 7-8% increase in revenues going forward. Yields? No firm projections.

That's okay--considering the situation they are in, that is understandable.

Hey, but I am not a lone wolf on this one. The Street likes what it sees as well. The stock continued to move up this past week, as it closed up another 8% to close at $16 3/8. Skywest is now up 18% on the year.

Delta Tells Pilots--Just Cool Your Jets

The union representing DELTA AIR LINES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DAL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DAL)") end if %> pilots announced this week that the company has indicated it will postpone a decision on whether to reopen contract talks with its pilots until after a new chief executive is named.

The pilots union said last month they were seeking pay raises and work-rule changes only one year after ratifying the current four-year contract.

The Air Line Pilots Association said it was seeking the changes because of the recent financial strength of the airline and pay raises for pilots at rival airlines.

Hey guys -- want a bit of advice? You guys have a contract. YOU are the ones that negotiated it. Live with it. What is this, major league baseball or something? (And hey, remember your cohorts at American STILL don't have those pay raises. Heck they still don't even have an official contract yet!) Delta has much more pressing and important things to do, like finding a successor to Ron Allen. Like restaffing maintenance staffing levels. And like scrapping that goofy new livery and starting over!

Delta stock has remained fairly stable of late and ended the last week flat at $94.

And speaking of Continental pilots...

Remember when we quoted Continental CEO Gordon Bethune after the company's annual meeting as saying he was optimistic that the negotiations between management and the pilots would be settled before the July 1 deadline? Well... we don't think so.

Continental Airlines said Friday it wants "round-the-clock" negotiations with its pilots union and complained that the union's demand for pilot expense increases would cost $1.4 billion over three years.

The airline said the demand would "end this era of profitability."

This statement from the company followed a statement by the union on Thursday in which pilots union said it did not expect the negotiations to be finished by the previous July 1 target date.

The pilots said they were setting Oct. 1 as the new date for reaching a contract.

The airline claims "the only issues remaining to be resolved related to salary, benefits and expenses; and staffing and scheduling." [TMF Wings' note: Whew... as if these are just minor little details.]

In more positive news, Continental was the beneficiary of an analyst upgrade from Glenn Engel at Goldman Sachs this week as we mentioned previously. Engel placed Continental on the "recommended" list, raising his rating on the stock from "market outperform."

Continental ended the week flat at $35 1/8.

And speaking of United pilots......

My sources tell me that United pilots may be suffering from a case of RJ lust. Now, what are the symptoms of this malady? It manifests itself in in uncontrollable urge to fly RJ aircraft. Who and what might this affect?

Stay tuned.

Frontier and Western Pacific -- merger? Yes? No?

My bet? Yes. Sooner than later.

WESTERN PACIFIC <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WPAC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WPAC)") end if %> closed the week up 11% to end at $6 3/8, while FRONTIER AIRLINES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FRNT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FRNT)") end if %> closed down 7%, closing at $3 1/4.

May Traffic Reports

Yes, it is that time again--here are the traffic reports we have as of today for the month of May.

ALASKA AIR <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ALK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ALK)") end if %>

May traffic for Alaska Airlines increased 2.0% to 842 million revenue passenger miles (RPMs) from 825 million flown a year earlier.

Capacity during May was 1.262 billion available seat miles (ASMs), 0.7% lower than the 1.270 billion in May 1996, the company said.

Passenger load factor for the month was 66.7%, compared to 64.9% in May 1996, the company said.

Passenger load factor for the first five months of 1997 was 66.1% versus 62.5% in 1996, the company said.

Results do not include Alaska Air Group's Horizon Air.

ATLANTIC COAST <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ACAI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ACAI)") end if %>

Atlantic Coast Airlines announced the company generated 70,183,000 available seat miles (ASMs), an increase of 4.6% over the same month last year, while revenue passenger miles (RPMs) increased 6.6% to 35,059,000. The carrier's load factor in May was 50% vs. 49.1% in 1996. The company carried 142,847 passengers, a 6.1% increase over May 1996.

For the five months ended May 31, 1997, compared to the same five-month period in 1996, RPMs grew to 140,208,000, an increase of 2.4% year-over-year, while ASMs were 324,141,000, a 5.7% increase, resulting in a 1.4 percentage point load factor reduction. The company carried 570,128 passengers compared to 561,766, an increase of 1.5%.

American Airlines

American reported a load factor for May 1997 of 69%, compared to 67.7% a year ago. Year to date, the company has a 68.1% load factor, compared to 66.5% for the five- month period of 1996.

Revenue Passenger miles increased to 9.1 billion compared to 8.7 billion for 1996. Available seat miles increased from 12.9 billion to 13.1 billion.

Continental Airlines

Continental Airlines reported a record load factor for May of 71.0%. The May load factor is 3.1 points higher than one year ago.

In May 1997, Continental flew 3.9 billion revenue passenger miles (RPMs) and 5.5 billion available seat miles (ASMs), resulting in a traffic increase of 13.3% and a capacity increase of 8.4% versus May 1996.

TOWER AIR <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TOWR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TOWR)") end if %>

Tower Air said on Friday its total block hours flown decreased 14.3% in May 1997 to 4,294 hours compared to 5,011 hours in May 1996.

According to their release, cargo charters decreased due to the grounding of one of the company's two cargo aircraft to comply with new airworthiness directives, the company said.

Reuters reported that neither company executives or Federal Aviation Administration officials were immediately available for comment about the grounding.

Scheduled passenger load factor was 73.2% in May 1997 compared to 71.9% in May 1996. The increased load factor in May 1997 was driven by improvements in the Tel Aviv, Miami and San Juan markets.

For the five-month period ended May 31, 1997, total block hours flown decreased 7.8% to 16,972 hours from 18,409 hours during the same period in 1996, Tower Air said.

The decrease in total block hours in May 1997 versus May 1996 was primarily attributable to the withdrawal from the Brazil market, a lower level of military charters and the earlier conclusion of Hajj operations in May 1997 versus May 1996, Tower Air said.

TWA <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: TWA)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: TWA)") end if %>

Trans World Airlines said Friday its passenger load factor was 67.8% in May, up from 67.6% a year ago.

Because of planned reductions on some international routes, capacity, traffic and the number of passengers declined from May 1996, the airline said. Revenue passenger miles for the month were 2.11 billion, down from 2.29 billion a year ago. Available seat miles were 3.11 billion, down from 3.39 billion a year ago.

Year-to-date through May, passenger load factor was 67.4%, up from 65.1% a year ago.

United Airlines

United Airlines was one of the few carriers that posted a load factor that was lower than the year before as they announced a total passenger load factor in May of 71.5%, down from 71.6% a year ago.

North American passenger load factor in the month rose 0.2 percentage points to 71.2%, while the Atlantic load factor gained 1.5 points to 85.5% and Latin American load factor rose 4.1 points to 59.7%. Pacific load factor in the month, however, dropped 3.3 points to 68.9%.

Total revenue passenger miles from scheduled service rose 3.1% to 10.04 billion in May. That included North American passenger miles of 6.22 billion, an increase of 1.7%.

US Airways

US Airways' revenue passenger miles (RPMs) increased 9.9% in scheduled service for May 1997, as compared to 1996 on an increase of 5.8% in available seat miles.

For domestic travel, the revenue passenger mile increase was 5.8% on an increase of 2.9% in available seat miles. International revenue passenger miles increased 67.4% while available seat miles rose 48.7%.

The overall load factor of 72.5% for the month was 2.7 percentage points higher than the comparable figure for May 1996. The system load factor for the first five months period was 70.2%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points over 1996.

ValuJet Airlines <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VJET)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VJET)") end if %>

ValuJet announced that the company flew 125.0 million revenue passenger miles (RPMs) and 236.1 million available seat miles (ASMs) during the month of May 1997. The load factor for the month was 52.8% and enplanements totaled 247,787

passengers. ValuJet's flight completion rate for the month of May was 99.6% and on-time arrivals within 15 minutes equaled 81.4%.

ValuJet continues to close the load factor gap as it tries to recover from the crash of last May. May 1997 actually represented a small gain over May of 1996 -- but remember that loads dropped precipitously after the crash in May of last year, so year over year here for the month of May are not really that fair of a comparison in and of themselves.

Western Pacific

Western Pacific Airlines said its passenger load factor in May increased 9.2 percentage points to 65.6% compared with the same month of 1996.

May 1997 revenue passenger miles increased 42% to 169,566,900 from 118,665,000 in the same period last year, Western Pacific said.

Available seat miles increased 22.8% to 258,418,000 from 210,484,400.

Western Pacific's load factor for the first five months of 1997 fell 2.5 percentage points to 55% from 57.5% in the same period of 1996, the carrier said.

World Airways <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WLDA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WLDA)") end if %>

World Airways Inc reported this week that block hours flown for continuing operations totaled 4,591 for May compared to 5,502 in May 1996, a decrease of about 17%.

It said average daily utilization was 10.6 block hours per day versus 12.4 for the same period in 1996.

Block hours denote flying hours under contracts with international carriers, the U.S. Air Force and international tour operators.

For the quarter-to-date ended May 31, block hours totaled 8,889 compared to 9,581 for the 1996 period, a decrease of about 7%. Average daily utilization was 10.4 block hours per day versus 11.0 block hours for the 1996 period.

Average aircraft units was 14.0 compared to 14.3 in the 1996 period, the company said.

Weekly Stock Performance Results

Closing Price   Closing Price    Percent
Symbol     05/30/97        06/06/97       Change

TWA         8 11/16        10  3/16        17%
VJET        6  7/8          7  3/4         13%
HA          4  1/8          4  5/8         12%
TOWR        3  1/8          3  1/2         12%
WPAC        5  3/4          6  3/8         11%
SKYW       15  1/8         16  3/8          8%
FDX        52  3/8         56  1/4          7%
ACAI       15  1/2         16  5/8          7%
RENO        7  3/4          8  5/16         7%
PAA         7  7/8          8  3/8          6%
AIRT        4  1/2          4  3/4          6%
MAIR       14  5/8         15  1/4          4%
WLDA        7  1/2          7  3/4          3%
BAB       117  5/8        121               3%
AMR        99  3/8        102               3%
ALK        24  7/8         25  1/2          3%
LUV        25  3/4         26  3/8          2%
U          34  3/4         35  1/2          2%
JAPNY       8  3/4          8  7/8          1%
MESA        5               5  1/16         1%
AWA        15  3/8         15  1/2          1%
MEH        31  3/4         31  7/8          0%
CAIB       35              35  1/8          0%
DAL        93  3/4         94               0%
AAIR        5  3/8          5  3/8          0%
ASAI       26  1/8         26  1/8          0%
ATLS       28  3/4         28  3/4          0%
KLM        29  3/8         29  3/8          0%
UAL        78  1/8         77  3/4          0%
ABF        38  1/4         37  3/4         -1%
AMTR        8  3/4          8  1/2         -3%
COMR       26              25  1/4         -3%
NWAC       41  3/8         40              -3%
CEA        29  5/8         28  1/4         -5%
FRNT        3  1/2          3  1/4         -7%
VNGD        1 20/29         1 11/25       -15%

Text Wrapping

Thank you to those who have written to tell me of similar "text-wrapping" problems with the e-mails of your updates. We are trying to figure out what the common thread is with you few who are affected - -as the majority of subscribers have no problem. I am sorry to report that we have not pinpointed the problem as of yet -- but we are still working on it.

E-Mail delivery

Yes, you too can have your edition of the TMF Weekly Airline Update e-mailed to you. Just write me, at TMF [email protected] and ask nicely. We shall respond in kind by putting you on the list!

Have a good week everyone.

Holly Hegeman
TMF [email protected]

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