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However, what I can and will argue is that this new year, in terms of performance, will belong to the Dow. Not the NOW 50. After the amazing bull run of the technology-rich NOW 50 last year -- and the many years before that -- I think it is time for the vulture value magnet Dow Jones Industrial Average to step forward and claim some buy orders.
It's easy to heave stones at the Dow. Until 1997, IBM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IBM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IBM)") end if %> was the lone tech stock in the index. Just a few years ago the Dow had Woolworth and Sears <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: S)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: S)") end if %> pegged as the retail heavyweights, not Wal-Mart <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") end if %> and Home Depot <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HD)") end if %>.
All of this has been rectified, but it's OK to be jaded after watching Bethlehem Steel <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BS)") end if %> and Goodyear <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GT)") end if %> meander in the Dow until 1997 and 1999, respectively.
No question. The NOW 50 gets it right from the start. There are a lot of Dow companies in the NOW 50, 16 out of the 30, but let's not sell the Dow leftovers short. The 30 stocks that make up the Dow offer some intriguing values. What contrarian investor hasn't considered Philip Morris <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") end if %>, now yielding 8.3% and trading at seven times trailing earnings and just six times the bottom line outlook this new year. General Motors <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") end if %> is another Dow component trading at a single-digit P/E. Sure, one of those bargain stocks has a huge liability cloud dangling overhead while the other is cyclical incarnate. Still, the NOW 50 offers no such cheapies. The NOW 50's automotive rep, Daimler Chrysler <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DCX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DCX)") end if %>, is trading at a multiple that is more than 50% higher than GM's.
The NOW 50 is full of promising companies trading at triple-digit P/E multiples. Hey, I believe in AOL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") end if %>, Yahoo! <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") end if %>, and Cisco <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCO)") end if %> as companies. My faith in the abilities of those stocks to maintain their lofty valuations is another matter entirely.
So maybe the Dow's Caterpillar <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CAT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CAT)") end if %> is unloved right now. I think the world's largest construction equipment maker will be around and prosper as the world continues to develop, don't you? The world has some catching up to do, and it's hard to imagine infrastructure happening without Alcoa <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AA)") end if %> materials and Boeing <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BA)") end if %> jets.
Mouse-bitten Disney <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") end if %> appears to finally have bottomed out, and just when you thought Kodak <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EK)") end if %> had gone into freeze frame mode it becomes a major player in digital photography, even teaming up with AOL for online delivery.
Maybe I'll be branded old-fashioned for considering companies with dividend payouts and historically sustainable earning multiples as attractive. I've been branded worse. However, recognizing that history has proven that investor sentiment will go from growth to value, over and over again, isn't it time to consider the Dow? While it beat the S&P 500 last year, and its large-company focus has served it well in recent years of blue-chip worship, a new year of value investing might keep the Dow buzzing even louder in Y2K.
The Dow 30 Companies
Alcoa <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AA)") end if %>
American Express <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AXP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AXP)") end if %> *
AT&T <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") end if %> *
Boeing <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BA)") end if %>
Caterpillar <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CAT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CAT)") end if %>
Citigroup <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: C)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: C)") end if %> *
Coca-Cola <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: KO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: KO)") end if %> *
Kodak <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EK)") end if %>
Disney <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") end if %>
DuPont <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") end if %> *
Exxon-Mobil <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: XOM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: XOM)") end if %> *
General Electric <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GE)") end if %> *
General Motors <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") end if %>
Hewlett-Packard <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HWP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HWP)") end if %>
Home Depot <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HD)") end if %> *
Honeywell <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HON)") end if %>
Intel <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %> *
IBM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IBM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IBM)") end if %> *
International Paper <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IP)") end if %>
Johnson & Johnson <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: JNJ)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: JNJ)") end if %> *
J.P. Morgan <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: JPM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: JPM)") end if %>
McDonald's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MCD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MCD)") end if %> *
Merck <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MRK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MRK)") end if %> *
Microsoft <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") end if %> *
3M <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MMM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MMM)") end if %>
Philip Morris <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") end if %>
Procter & Gamble <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PG)") end if %> *
SBC Communications <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SBC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SBC)") end if %>
United Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UTX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UTX)") end if %>
Wal-Mart <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") end if %> *
*Also in the NOW 50
This Week's Duel
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