NOW & Dow
The NOW 50 Argument

By Paul Larson (TMF Parlay)

( January 5, 2000 ) -- As we launch into a new century, The Motley Fool is launching a new index called the NOW 50. To be concise, I think this index will beat the pants off the Dow in the coming year simply because the NOW 50 is made up of companies that are established yet have fundamentally bright prospects for the coming years.

One thing I like about the NOW 50 is that the index was created with the help of the Foolish community. Through literally thousands of message board postings and e-mails, the trustees of the NOW 50 were given hundreds of ideas of companies to add to the index. I respect the Foolish community's opinion (look at how well the Voting Fools have done in the past Duels), and to create an index starting with the community's collective intelligence is simply an awesome thing.

Second, each company in the NOW 50 has something going for it that the Foolish trustees found exciting in one way or another. To shed some light on exactly how the companies were selected, let me quote one of our NOW 50 specials:

"With each company we asked ourselves the question: 'How is this company excellent?' Those remaining on the list were the ones that the majority of the trustees singled out as having something exceptional about them -- a leadership quality in innovation, global branding, technology, or strategic vision. Many of the companies, in fact most of them, exhibit superiority in more than one of these fields.

"We reject the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the premier gauge for market performance due to its dependence on the industries of yesterday, its equal weighting, and its unresponsiveness to the changes in the global economy."

Sounds good to me!

In general, the Dow is made up of companies that are largely mature and have meager prospects for growth. The NOW 50, on the other hand, is made up of companies that are in their prime and have many years of vibrant expansion to look forward to. You won't find any old-age, industrial-era companies in the NOW 50. The Dow is then, the NOW 50 is, well, now!

Of course, whenever we paint with such a wide brush we're inevitably going to miss some of the details. The keepers of the Dow index just a few weeks ago made some major changes that, in my opinion, greatly increased the relevance of the index. By finally adding Microsoft <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") end if %> and Intel <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %> to the Dow, it went a long way toward breaking the mold of being an index filled with aging giants. Still, there's a lot farther for the Dow to go, and the NOW 50 bests the Dow hands down when looking for companies with growth and relevance in today's economy.

Probably the biggest knock I have against the Dow is the fact that there is little representation in some of today's most promising industries. I'm talking about the Internet, biotechnology, wireless communications, computer hardware, etc. Even when the Dow does have a new-era company in it, the NOW 50 tends to have it, too. Just take a look at some examples of what I consider some of today's hottest sectors and how many companies from that sector are in each index:

Internet/E-commerce 
NOW 50 Dow 30 Microsoft Microsoft Amazon.com America Online Yahoo! Networking Hardware NOW 50 Dow 30 Intel Intel Cisco Systems Lucent Sun Microsystems Biotechnology NOW 50 Dow 30 Johnson & Johnson Johnson & Johnson Merck Merck Amgen Biogen Medtronic Wireless Communications NOW 50 Dow 30 AT&T AT&T Cable & Wireless SBC Communications Hughes Electronics Lucent Nokia
In other words, by the time a company makes it onto the Dow, its brightest days of growth are behind it. While some NOW 50 companies may be also mature, the vast majority are still in the process of claiming their stakes in the economy.

It's also worth noting that the Dow does not have any internationally based companies in the index. On the other hand, those overseeing the NOW 50 have not limited themselves to domestic corporations. They were willing to accept foreign companies if they met some fairly stringent financial reporting guidelines and were listed on a major American exchange. This all means that the NOW 50 has a handful of the brightest stars from overseas, including the likes of Nokia <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NOK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NOK)") end if %>, Sony <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SNE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SNE)") end if %>, and Cable & Wireless <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CWP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CWP)") end if %>.

Simply said, the NOW 50 is largely made up of companies that will benefit from the new economy. I think the NOW 50, as a group, have much better prospects in the years ahead than those companies in the Dow.

The NOW 50 Companies

Automatic Data Processing <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AUD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AUD)") end if %>
America Online <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") end if %>
American International Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AIG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AIG)") end if %>
Amazon.com <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMZN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMZN)") end if %>
American Express <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AXP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AXP)") end if %>
Applied Materials <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMAT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMAT)") end if %>
ARM Holdings <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ARMHY)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ARMHY)") end if %>
AT&T Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") end if %>
Amgen Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMGN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMGN)") end if %>
Berkshire Hathaway <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BRK.A)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BRK.A)") end if %>
Biogen Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BGEN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BGEN)") end if %>
Cable & Wireless <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CWP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CWP)") end if %>
Cisco Systems <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCO)") end if %>
Citigroup Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: C)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: C)") end if %>
Coca-Cola Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: KO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: KO)") end if %>
Costco Wholesale <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: COST)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: COST)") end if %>
DaimlerChrysler <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DCX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DCX)") end if %>
Dell Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %>
DuPont <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") end if %>
EMC Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EMC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EMC)") end if %>
Enron Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ENE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ENE)") end if %>
Exxon-Mobil <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: XOM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: XOM)") end if %>
Gap Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GPS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GPS)") end if %>
General Electric <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GE)") end if %>
Home Depot <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HD)") end if %>
HSBC Holdings <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HBC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HBC)") end if %>
Hughes Electronics <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GMH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GMH)") end if %>
International Business Machines <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IBM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IBM)") end if %>
Intel Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %>
Johnson & Johnson <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: JNJ)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: JNJ)") end if %>
Lucent Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LU)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LU)") end if %>
McDonald's Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MCD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MCD)") end if %>
Medtronic Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MDT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MDT)") end if %>
Merck & Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MRK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MRK)") end if %>
Microsoft Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") end if %>
News Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NWS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NWS)") end if %>
Nokia Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NOK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NOK)") end if %>
Oracle Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ORCL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ORCL)") end if %>
Pepsico Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PEP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PEP)") end if %>
Pfizer Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") end if %>
Procter & Gamble <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PG)") end if %>
Schlumberger <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SLB)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SLB)") end if %>
Schwab Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SCH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SCH)") end if %>
Sony Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SNE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SNE)") end if %>
Sun Microsystems <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SUNW)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SUNW)") end if %>
Texas Instruments <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TXN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TXN)") end if %>
Time Warner <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TWX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TWX)") end if %>
United Parcel Service <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UPS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UPS)") end if %>
Wal-Mart Stores <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") end if %>
Yahoo! <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") end if %>

The Dow Argument »

 This Week's Duel

  • Introduction
  • NOW 50 Argument
  • The Dow Argument
  • The Now 50 Rebuttal
  • The Dow Rebuttal
  • Vote Results
  • Flashback: Amazon.com

     Related Links

  • The NOW 50 Index
  • NOW 50 Message Board