UG Losing Streak

by Robert Sheard
(TMF Sheard)

LEXINGTON, KY. (August 10, 1998) -- Friday's closing bell marked the end of our official July reporting period for the monthly Unemotional Growth model, and for the second month in a row, it was a losing effort. Let's look at the details.

The five-stock model lost 7.53% for July while the ten-stock model dropped 7.73%. The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 4.97% during the same period. For the year, then, the UG5 is up 13.33% and the UG10 is up just 6.71%. The long-term averages slipped slightly also. Since the beginning of 1997, the five-stock model has compounded at 36.70% annually while the ten-stock version has compounded at 28.43% a year.

Of the UG5 stocks from July, only top-ranked Dell Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %> managed a gain, saving the model from an even more painful drop. Dell gained 15.48%. Three of the remaining four stocks suffered double-digit percentage losses: HBO & Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HBOC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HBOC)") end if %> dropped 20.29%, Cambridge Technology <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CATP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CATP)") end if %> dropped 13.75%, and PeopleSoft <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PSFT)") end if %> dropped 10.41%. The final stock, Anchor Gaming <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SLOT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SLOT)") end if %>, came close to a double-digit percentage loss, slipping 8.67%.

The stocks rounding out the ten-stock field were also primarily losers for the month: Parametric Technology <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PMTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PMTC)") end if %> lost 12.37%, Robert Half Int'l <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: RHI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: RHI)") end if %> bucked the trend and gained 3.64%, CKE Restaurants <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CKR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CKR)") end if %> choked off a 17.82% loss, Quintiles Transnational <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: QTRN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: QTRN)") end if %> dipped 1.67%, and Papa John's International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PZZA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PZZA)") end if %> burned the crust, down 11.33%.

For the August reporting period, from August 7 through September 4, only one stock changes in the top five. Cambridge Technology slips out of UG contention altogether and is replaced in the UG5 by Papa John's Int'l.

The full lineup for August is as follows:

Dell Computer
HBO & Co.
PeopleSoft
Papa John's Int'l
Anchor Gaming
Lexmark Int'l 'A' <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LXK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LXK)") end if %>
Dollar Tree <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DLTR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DLTR)") end if %>
Keane Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: KEA)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: KEA)") end if %>
Robert Half Int'l
Tellabs, Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TLAB)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TLAB)") end if %>

For a full monthly record of the Unemotional Growth models, please see our History file.

Check out the latest file updates for the Workshop:
New Rankings | 1998 Returns | New Database

[Robert Sheard is the author of the The Unemotional Investor (Simon & Schuster, 1998) available now at Amazon.com and your local bookseller.]