UGly July

by Robert Sheard
(TMF Sheard)

LEXINGTON, KY. (July 29, 1998) -- It's been one of those months for the Unemotional Growth model. If not for the impressive rally in shares of Dell Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %>, the month would be a whopping sell-off. As it is, the model has lost 10.34% this month while the Standard & Poor's 500 has only shed 1.85%.

Today's report will be short and to the point since I was away from my office all afternoon, but let's look at the numbers and moan collectively. 

 
 Dell Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %>           +15.88% 
 HBO & Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HBOC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HBOC)") end if %>               -18.13% 
 Cambridge Technology <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CATP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CATP)") end if %>    -25.17% 
 PeopleSoft <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PSFT)") end if %>              -19.69% 
 Anchor Gaming <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SLOT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SLOT)") end if %>           -4.59%

If you've been looking for a correction, I think we have one staring us in the face. July's losses drag the year-to-date return back to single digits, up only 9.89%.

Keep in mind that this model has routinely generated such dramatic ups and downs, and if you're committed to the approach, drops like this should not scare you out the door. It's happened before and will happen again. It's simply an element associated with this model that's inescapable.

Tomorrow, I'll take a look at how our Dozens portfolios are handling the correction.

Check out the latest file updates for the Workshop:
New Rankings | 1998 Returns | New Database

[Robert Sheard is the author of the The Unemotional Investor (Simon & Schuster, 1998) available now at Amazon.com and your local bookseller.]