Two Doubling Dozens
(TMF Sheard)
LEXINGTON, KY. (July 23, 1998) -- With the market hiccuping this week, let's see how the Dozens Portfolios are holding up. These are mock portfolios where $1,000 is added each month to buy one stock from a specific screen. At the end of a year, the portfolio will hold a dozen stocks. Each stock is then updated as it gets to be a year old.
Two of the six portfolios are still doing extremely well, with annualized returns on pace to record doubles in 1998. The Relative Strength Dozen is on a pace to gain 145.5% and the Keystone Dozen is on a pace to gain 124.2%. Compare that to an equivalent investment each month into the Standard & Poor's 500 Index Spyder <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: SPY)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: SPY)") end if %>, which is on a pace to record a gain of 27.2% (a fine return compared to historical averages).
A third strong performer, the Formula90 Dozen, is also doing well, although not as well as a few weeks ago. The annualized pace for the Formula90 Dozen is 92.9%.
The remaining three portfolios are all lagging the Spyder benchmark, and in fact, one is in the red. The Dow Dozen, which uses the Unemotional Value/Foolish Four rankings each month, is on a pace to lose 1.3% -- ouch! The other Dow model, the Dow Racers Dozen, which selects the Dow stocks with the best relative strength, is doing somewhat better, on a pace to record a gain of 15.8% for the year. Finally, the Low Price/Sales Dozen, which mimics to a large degree the Cornerstone Growth screen developed by Jim O'Shaughnessy, is on a pace to record a gain of 12.4%.
What's doing so well for the Keystone and Relative Strength Dozens? Here are the holdings, listed in their acquisition order, and the returns for each stock since it entered its respective portfolio:
Keystone Dozen
Fifth Third Bancorp <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FITB)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FITB)") end if %> 12.3%
Schering-Plough <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SGP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SGP)") end if %> 35.5%
Pfizer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") end if %> 26.1%
Tele-Comm, Inc. 'A' <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TCOMA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TCOMA)") end if %> 31.3%
America Online <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") end if %> 59.2%
Dell Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %> 31.2%
EMC Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EMC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EMC)") end if %> 15.7%
Relative Strength Dozen
Best Buy Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BBY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BBY)") end if %> 166.6%
Ethan Allen <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ETH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ETH)") end if %> 0.8%
Alaska Air Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ALK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ALK)") end if %> 0.9%
Whole Foods Market <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WFMI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WFMI)") end if %> -14.9%
Capital One Financial <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: COF)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: COF)") end if %> 19.8%
America Online <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") end if %> 52.8%
Dell Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %> 16.6%
The Relative Strength Dozen has the flashy total return and the whopping performance by Best Buy, but the Keystone Dozen has put together a much more consistent performance. Keep a jaded eye towards these returns, though. All annualized numbers tend to get skewed very easily when the portfolio is less than a year old and only holds seven of the eventual twelve holdings. Nevertheless, it's a terrific launch for three of the Dozens models, and with luck, the second half will be just as fun to watch.
Check out the latest file updates for the Workshop:
New Rankings
| 1998 Returns
| New Database
[Robert Sheard is the author of the The Unemotional Investor (Simon & Schuster, 1998) available now at Amazon.com and your local bookseller.]