Big Winners & Losers
(TMF Sheard)
LEXINGTON, KY. (June 29, 1998) -- It's time to look at the best and the worst American stocks over the past six months. The following two lists are taken from the Value Line Investment Survey database, through June 24. I omitted all non-American companies and any stock which doesn't carry a timeliness ranking (usually the sign of a company engaged in an impending merger or acquisition).
Over the past six months, here are the biggest winners. Their returns range from 78% to 147% and average a whopping 102%. Fortunately for Workshop followers, a number of these stocks have shown up in various screens we've been following. I hope they've shown up in your portfolio, as well.
America Online <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") end if %>
Dell Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %>
Unisys Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UIS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UIS)") end if %>
Roberts Pharmac. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: RPC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: RPC)") end if %>
Capital One Fin'l <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: COF)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: COF)") end if %>
Apple Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AAPL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AAPL)") end if %>
Best Buy Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BBY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BBY)") end if %>
Just For Feet <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FEET)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FEET)") end if %>
Ascend Communic. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") end if %>
EMC Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EMC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EMC)") end if %>
Informix Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IFMX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IFMX)") end if %>
Lowe's Cos. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LOW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LOW)") end if %>
FORE Systems <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FORE)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FORE)") end if %>
Blair Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BL)") end if %>
Staples Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SPLS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SPLS)") end if %>
Gap (The) Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GPS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GPS)") end if %>
Health Mgmt. Systems <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HMSY)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: HMSY)") end if %>
IDEXX Labs. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IDXX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IDXX)") end if %>
Learning Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TLC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TLC)") end if %>
GRC Int'l <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GRH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GRH)") end if %>
On the flip-side of the coin, here are the twenty biggest losers over the past six months. The range for this group is from a loss of 40% to a loss of 73%. And as painful as it is to say
Boston Chicken <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BOST)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BOST)") end if %>
The question, as always, is how to use such lists. I'm not a fan of taking the top performers and just buying them without a thought to other factors -- earnings growth, for example. There may be any number of reasons why one of these stocks has soared (or plunged). In general, though, relative strength is an important criterion because it tells you that the market is valuing whatever the story is.
In the screens we follow, though, the relative strength test is always applied after some other factor has narrowed the field. Whether that's the timeliness ranking in the Value Line Survey or some other factor, the 6-month performance is overlaid to choose the best of the screened stocks.
For the big losers, you may find some useful turnaround stock to watch. Of any field of big losers, some will become big winners the next year, although on average the group will contain its share of stocks that simply continue to drop. In other words, use this information to add to your research, or perhaps even launch it in a new direction, but don't use this particular screen as an end in itself.
Check out the latest file updates for the Workshop:
[Robert Sheard is the author of the
The Unemotional
Investor (Simon & Schuster, 1998) available now at Amazon.com and
your local bookseller.]
Sunbeam Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SOC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SOC)") end if %>
Golden Books Family <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GBFE)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GBFE)") end if %>
Samsonite Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SAMC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SAMC)") end if %>
MedPartners Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MDM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MDM)") end if %>
Vesta Insurance <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: VTA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: VTA)") end if %>
Cygnus Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CYGN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CYGN)") end if %>
Applied Magnetics <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: APM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: APM)") end if %>
Adaptec Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADPT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADPT)") end if %>
Iomega Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IOM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IOM)") end if %>
Acme Metals <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AMI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AMI)") end if %>
Volt Info. Sciences <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: VOL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: VOL)") end if %>
Gymboree Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GYMB)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GYMB)") end if %>
National Semiconductor <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NSM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NSM)") end if %>
Sybase Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SYBS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SYBS)") end if %>
Dura Pharmac. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DURA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DURA)") end if %>
Seattle FilmWorks <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FOTO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FOTO)") end if %>
OEA Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: OEA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: OEA)") end if %>
Mondavi (Robert) 'A' <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MOND)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MOND)") end if %>
Allen Telecom <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ALN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ALN)") end if %>
New Rankings
| 1998 Returns
| New Database