Tuesday, March 31, 1998

The Daily Workshop Report
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)

LEXINGTON, KY. (March 31, 1998) -- Today is Dozens update day. Our Dozens models pick up the top-ranked stock not already in the portfolios for their respective strategies. We began following these using the rankings on the last day of December, so today's selections represent the end of the first third of the portfolio. Each portfolio now holds four of the intended twelve stocks for the year.

Let's run down the model holdings.

Dow Dozen (uses the Unemotional Value rankings)
January -- Union Carbide <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UK)") end if %>
February -- International Paper <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IP)") end if %>
March -- AT&T <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") end if %>
April -- Eastman Kodak <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EK)") end if %> is the stock to be added today.

Dow Racers Dozen (Dow stock with the highest 6-month returns)
January -- AT&T <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") end if %>
February -- Disney <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") end if %>
March -- Merck <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MRK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MRK)") end if %>
April -- Wal-Mart <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") end if %> is the stock to be added today.

Keystone Dozen
January -- Fifth Third Bancorp <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FITB)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FITB)") end if %>
February -- Schering-Plough <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SGP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SGP)") end if %>
March -- Pfizer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") end if %>
April -- Telecommunications, Inc. 'A' <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TCOMA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TCOMA)") end if %> is the stock to be added today.

Low Price/Sales Dozen
January -- VWR Scientific <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VWRX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VWRX)") end if %>
February -- Alaska Air Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ALK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ALK)") end if %>
March -- Whole Food Markets <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WFMI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WFMI)") end if %>
April -- Lowes Cos. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LOW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LOW)") end if %> is the stock to be added today.

Formula90 Dozen
January -- Safeskin <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SFSK)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SFSK)") end if %>
February -- Dell Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %>
March -- United Stationers <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: USTR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: USTR)") end if %>
April -- Ethan Allen <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ETH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ETH)") end if %> is the stock to be added today.

And starting today, I'm adding another Dozens model to round out the group to six. For whatever reason, I had overlooked the pure Relative Strength screen, so we'll pick it up here. Given Best Buy's early tear in 1998, it's no surprise that this is the Dozens group leading the pack. See below for year-to-date returns.

Relative Strength Dozen (using the 26-week return method)
January -- Best Buy Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BBY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BBY)") end if %>
February -- Ethan Allen <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ETH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ETH)") end if %>
March -- Alaska Air Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ALK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ALK)") end if %>
April -- Whole Food Markets <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WFMI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WFMI)") end if %> is the stock to be added today.

The following returns are annualized gains, calculated using the XIRR function in Microsoft's Excel. Keep in mind that these numbers can fluctuate wildly this early in the year, so I've also computed an equivalent year-to-date return for the portfolios based on this annualized pace.

67.3% Standard & Poor's 500 Index (13.5%)

426.4% Relative Strength Dozen (50.6%)
203.2% Formula90 Dozen (31.5%)
135.6% Low Price/Sales Dozen (23.5%)
63.1% Keystone Dozen (12.8%)
56.4% Dow Dozen (11.7%)
9.0% Dow Racers Dozen (2.1%)

Fool on and Congratulations to the National Champion Kentucky Wildcats!

Check out the latest file updates for the Workshop:
New Rankings | 1998 Returns | New Database

[Robert Sheard is the author of the forthcoming book, The Unemotional Investor, due out from Simon & Schuster on May 12. To pre-order your copy, please visit Amazon.com, where it's available at a discounted price.]