The Motley Fool: The Foolish Workshop, Friday, February 13, 1998

Friday, February 13, 1998

The Daily Workshop Report
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)

LEXINGTON, KY. (February 13, 1998) -- It's time for another Workshop Roundup! If you're new to the area and aren't sure what's what, here's a quick tour.

In addition to this nightly column, we track eight hypothetical portfolios, based on mechanical screens we generated at the close on 12/31/97. Each of the eight model portfolios includes ten stocks and will remain unchanged throughout 1998 (despite the fact that a couple of the screens are perhaps better suited to shorter holding cycles). To see an explanation of the process for using each of the eight screens, click here.

In addition, I post a new set of rankings every Friday for each of the eight screens. These are for readers using the screens on a time schedule different from our 12/31/97 starting point. To see the current rankings, click here.

I also post a weekly database from which all of the stocks are selected (except for the Keystone approach). If you're interested in designing your own screening combinations, you might start with this database and build on your own theories. Click here to see the latest database.

And finally, each Friday I update the year-to-date returns for the eight model portfolios, including the individual returns for each stock in each screen. Click here to see the returns.

Now, on to the current state of the Workshop screens. 1998 is still shaping up favorably for the Workshop models. Seven of the eight screens are ahead of the S&P 500 Index through February 11. Only the original Investing for Growth model is struggling in negative territory. Given that four of its stocks are sporting double-digit losses already, however, IFG is faring quite well with only a 3.78% loss. Nevertheless, there's a whopping fourteen percentage point difference between the classic IFG approach and its newer counterpart -- IFG with Relative Strength. Replacing the final industry ranking test with a 26-week Total Return test has made a huge difference in the two models, at least in this very brief period.

Let's look at the best and worst performers so far of the 49 stocks included in the eight Workshop models this year:

The Best

56.95%  Best Buy Corp.        <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BBY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BBY)") end if %> 
 39.03%  Alaska Air Group      <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ALK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ALK)") end if %> 
 33.33%  Ethan Allen Interiors <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ETH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ETH)") end if %> 
 32.44%  Newport Corp.         <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NEWP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NEWP)") end if %> 
 31.25%  Dell Computer         <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %>

The Worst

-49.40%  ADC Telecom.         <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADCT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADCT)") end if %> 
 -39.22%  Adaptec Inc.         <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADPT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADPT)") end if %> 
 -24.35%  Tidewater Inc.       <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TDW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TDW)") end if %> 
 -24.00%  Input/Output         <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IO)") end if %> 
 -22.62%  Iomega Corp.         <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IOM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IOM)") end if %>

On a side note: if you happen to have a copy of the rankings from Friday, January 30 for the 30 Keystone stocks, I'd appreciate it if you'd drop me a copy via e-mail. I'd like to begin a monthly database for the full Keystone model and failed to save the 1/30 rankings. Thanks!

Have a Foolish holiday Monday!

[Want to be the first Fool on your block to get a copy of Robert Sheard's forthcoming book? Click here to pre-order your copy of The Unemotional Investor.]