The Motley Fool: The Foolish Workshop, Friday, January 30, 1998

Friday, January 30, 1998

The Daily Workshop Report
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)

LEXINGTON, KY. (Jan. 30, 1998) -- The 1998 Workshop has four weeks under its belt now, and have there ever been some wild rides already! Let's look at some of the more startling performers from the Workshop screens this year. All returns are through January 28.

Six stocks of the 49 represented by this year's eight screens have had major declines early in the 1998 campaign. Here are the unfortunate disasters so far:

-59.0%  ADC Telecom.  <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADCT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADCT)") end if %> 
 -40.6%  Adaptec, Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADPT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADPT)") end if %> 
 -34.7%  Iomega Corp.  <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IOM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IOM)") end if %> 
 -32.0%  Input/Output  <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IO)") end if %> 
 -26.3%  Tidewater     <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TDW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TDW)") end if %> 
 -20.5%  ENSCO Int'l   <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ESV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ESV)") end if %>

In general, though, the start of the year has been fairly strong for Workshop stocks, with five of the eight screens ahead of the S&P 500 Index's return of 0.7%. Unfortunately for the Classic Investing for Growth approach, three of the six disasters are among this year's ten stocks, pushing the model down a whopping 11.5% already. This demonstrates a danger I've written about recently -- too high a concentration in a single industry. When the industry tanks, the whole portfolio goes with it. There's time yet, however.

Four Workshop stocks so far have turned in fine performances:

30.0%  Best Buy Co.          <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BBY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BBY)") end if %> 
 29.0%  Alaska Air Group      <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ALK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ALK)") end if %> 
 27.4%  Rio Hotel & Casino    <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: RHC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: RHC)") end if %> 
 21.3%  Ethan Allen Interiors <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ETH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ETH)") end if %>

In our weekly updates for all of the Workshop screen returns, we're tracking ten-stock portfolios for each screen. For those of you looking at more concentrated groups, here's how the five-stock versions are doing so far in 1998:

 10.9%  Low Price/Sales 
   8.1%  Relative Strength - 26-Week Method 
   5.3%  Relative Strength - IBD Method 
   5.0%  Formula 90 
   4.7%  Investing for Growth - Relative Strength 
   0.7%  Keystone 
   0.7%  Unemotional Growth 
   0.7%  S&P 500 Index 
  -2.6%  Investing for Growth - Classic

To see the current 1998 Workshop files, please use the following direct links:

Current Screen Rankings
Current Database
1998 Screen Returns

Have a Foolish weekend!

[Want to be the first Fool on your block to get a copy of Robert Sheard's forthcoming book? Click here to pre-order your copy of The Unemotional Investor.]