Table Two

S&P 500 Index Inflation-Adjusted Portfolio Success Rates: 1961 to 1998

(Percentage of payout periods supported by portfolio)

	Withdrawal Rate as % of Initial Portfolio Value
Length of Payout Period	3%	4%	5%	6%	7%	8%	9%	10%	11%	12%
100% S&P 500
15 Years	100	100	100	75	58	50	42	29	21	13
20 Years	100	100	74	42	32	21	16	5	0	0
25 Years	100	100	29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30 Years	100	67	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35 Years	100	100	50	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
75% S&P 500/25% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	79	54	42	33	25	21	13
20 Years	100	100	74	32	21	16	5	0	0	0
25 Years	100	93	21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30 Years	100	56	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35 Years	100	100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
50% S&P 500/50% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	71	50	33	25	21	17	13
20 Years	100	100	63	26	21	5	0	0	0	0
25 Years	100	86	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30 Years	100	33	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35 Years	100	25	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25% S&P 500/75% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	71	42	25	21	17	17	8
20 Years	100	100	47	21	5	0	0	0	0	0
25 Years	100	57	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30 Years	100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35 Years	100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
100% Bonds
15 Years	100	100	100	54	25	21	21	17	17	4
20 Years	100	79	37	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
25 Years	100	43	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30 Years	78	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35 Years	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Note: Numbers rounded to nearest whole percentage. The number of overlapping 15-year payout periods from 1961 to 1998, inclusively, is 24; 20-year periods, 19; 25-year periods, 14; 30-year periods, 9; 35-year periods, 4. Stocks are represented by the Standard and Poor's 500 Index, and bonds by long-term, high-quality corporate bonds. Data source: Author's calculationsbased on data from Ibbotson Associates.