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Why MSCI Inc. Stock First Soared 13.5% -- Then Gave It All Back

What happened

Shares of market analytics firm MSCI Inc. (NYSE: MSCI  ) jumped 13.5% in early morning trading Wednesday before dropping back and giving back all but 2% of those gains as of 12:15 p.m. EDT.

So what

Obviously, something big happened this morning -- but what?

Early in the day, Britain's Evening Standard  newspaper reported that MSCI was the subject of a takeover bid from rival data services firm S&P Global Inc. (NYSE: SPGI  ) -- a bid of $120 a share, which was rejected as "too low" by MSCI management.

Just the suggestion that MSCI (now trading at $98 and change) might be worth 20% more was enough to send the stock off to the races. But according to the report, MSCI was holding out for an even bigger bid of $130 a share from S&P Global. If that were true, it would imply an even greater value lay in MSCI shares, setting off a real, honest-to-goodness frenzy among investors to scoop up the shares before S&P's bid was made official.

Stock chart going through floor.

Things were going so well for MSCI this morning! What happened to it? Image source: Getty Images.

Now what

Sad to say, the report appears not to have been true. By midday, MSCI had issued a statement dispelling rumors of the imminent buyout, assuring investors: "We are not in discussions with any third party, and we have not received any offer or indication of interest."

Which pretty much puts a kibosh on the rally. So what's the upshot? If you bought MSCI shares in hopes of reaping a quick windfall, you're now the proud owner of a richly priced stock that sells for 36.5 times earnings -- and seems unlikely to get bought out. Granted, the stock still pays a modest 1.2% dividend and is projected to grow at 18.3% annually over the next five years. Maybe you think that's good enough to be worth holding on to, and maybe not.

For S&P Global, however, it's apparently too high a price to be of interest.

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Related Tickers

3/23/2017 12:08 PM
MSCI $97.56 Up +1.45 +1.51%
MSCI CAPS Rating: ***
SPGI $129.70 Up +1.21 +0.94%
S and P Global CAPS Rating: ****

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