By
Incredible wit. Clever direction. Amazing cast performances. Underappreciated. GO is not just another portal coming of age on the small screen -- it is the future of online entertainment. It is. It's just that maybe the Zen cat hasn't told you yet.
Let's consider the valuable online real estate we've got here. Month in and month out, Disney.com remains the most popular family destination online. In the world of sports, golden ESPN.com outdraws the silver and bronze medalists combined. As the top-rated network, recently in prime time but for decades in daytime serials, ABC.com and ABCNews.com are defining the immersive experience between television programming and Internet content.
GO is special, but it might not be so obvious at first. Consider last month's Media Metrix <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MMXI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MMXI)") end if %> tally of unique visitors. GO had just over 23 million unique visitors for the month of May. Portal bellwether Yahoo! <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") end if %> drew almost twice as many cybersurfers while Lycos <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LCOS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LCOS)") end if %> took in 41% more visitors than GO.
But, when you think about it, why are folks at Yahoo! or Lycos? The main event is the search engine, which means online users are there because they want to be somewhere else. Yikes! They have padded their offerings with outsourced content but -- again -- the life of a content consolidator is like that of an online refueling station. Wouldn't you rather be the fuzzy dice that go along for the ride? Through the GeoCities and Tripod acquisitions respectively, Yahoo! and Lycos have also developed communities revolving around small user-created hobbyist sites, but the distinction between quantity and quality has never run so wide.
In sum, the portals are solid. Roadmaps. Auctions. Cyberlife 101 breeds at their doorstep. I can't vouch for the offspring. They lack what GO.com has in strides. GO.com is a collection of upper tier sites where exclusive and proprietary content is the star attraction -- not the ability to find it elsewhere.
So when someone logs onto ABC.com, looking for a little virtual Regis, they spend an average of over 40 minutes playing the online version of Who Wants To Be a Millionaire. Not only is that longer than the typical Internet session, but it is spent completely at a GO.com site.
Do you want Net-exclusive newscasts from Sam Donaldson? Do you crave official NFL.com, NBA.com or Oscars.com site information? Do you need to know more about the family entertainment leader -- through Disney.com or Family.com? GO.com is all this and more.
The fundamentals are certainly improving. The company is being sandbagged by its offline endeavors right now. Its Disney Store mail-order business has been sluggish over the past few quarters, but if you remove that from the mix you have some impressive momentum.
For the December quarter, Internet revenues shot up 47% year-over-year for GO. Three months later sales had spiked 67% higher. And, at a time when e-tail is sweating it out like Jeff Bezos at a tanning salon, it is comforting to know that thanks to DisneyStore.com and the enhanced DisneyTravel.com GO delivered a 90% uptick in e-commerce sales during the March quarter.
So, where will Lou take her shots? With 86 million page views being doled out daily and more than 21.5 million registered users, I doubt she will argue GO's popularity or cultural relevance.
With Internet revenues coming in just shy of Lycos' showing last quarter -- and Lycos receiving a $12.5 billion buyout offer from Terra Networks <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TRRA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TRRA)") end if %> last month -- I doubt she'll argue that GO is overvalued with a market cap below $2 billion.
There is really only one soft spot here. I'm offering up the company's heel -- its lack of profitable execution -- and bracing for her best shot. I can't help but flinch. Unlike Yahoo! and Lycos, GO doesn't operate in the black. Instead of lifting GoTo's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GOTO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GOTO)") end if %> green traffic signal light logo, they should have colored it in red.
The deficit is inflated actually. Since the company's November reorganization, more than two-thirds of its reported losses have come from the amortization of intangible assets. What I mean is that most of GO's net losses comes from the art of accounting for money spent last year in acquisitions and its reorganization.
But a loss is a loss. True. And a lot of that may come from the Disney <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") end if %> studio mindset. Disney owns 72% of the shares outstanding and like any movie project a lot of money is spent upfront. The plan -- the hope -- is that it will eventually be recouped through the various revenue streams and residual channels. Look over the online properties here and I think you'll agree that something good is being cooked up and it isn't turkey.
I can deal with the near-term fiscal shortcomings because GO has the hardest part licked. It has the brands. It has the content everybody wants. It is much easier to fine tune operations than to create a desirable online network from scratch. It's not just that though. GO owns what has to be the best collection of multimedia content that will continue to grow in popularity as more and more users embrace broadband.
So, Lou, I'm decked out in a monochrome suit and I ask you the million dollar question: How can GO.com fail? You've got all your lifelines now. But if you poll the audience they're obviously enamored with the online offerings and can't afford to answer. If you go 50/50 you'll only whittle down the answers to "can't" and "won't." If you phone a friend, I hope it's a Fool -- who will advise you to walk away with what you have won already.
Is that your Foolish answer?
This Week's Duel
Related Links