"The Internet is an invention that begets more inventions."
-- Paul Larson, circa 2000
True, but I would like to argue that market sentiment is the mother of all reinvention. Wall Street loves the coattails. Once it defines a trend, like it once did with B2C, it seeks out the evolutionary angle of the next big thing and then hops on for the ride. There is nothing wrong with that, sometimes. Vision deserves to be applauded. But sometimes the market gets it wrong. If you're going to grab the tail end of the coat, at least know what you're clinging on to.
"If you want to destroy my sweater, pull this thread as I walk away."
-- Weezer, "Undone"
The B2B hype is alarming. Don't get me wrong. There are plenty of quality players in the B2B landscape, and Paul nailed the creme. The part I find troubling is how folks are taking the raw data without considering that the majority of the online B2B growth will be coming from companies simply placing an order with their suppliers on the Internet over a fax or voice call.
Not a single company of the five Paul mentioned is topping a billion in annual sales. Actually, the three smallest combined for sales just shy of $100 million last year. Yet those three companies have a combined market cap of $70 billion.
Wow, I think the coattail is wagging the coat. Or, put another way, why ride the coattail when the coat is there for the wearing.
Let's set the B2 aside for now. Let's boil it down to the B and the C. Where is the growth? The number of businesses isn't going to grow dramatically, right? However, can the same be said for the world's online community? The three of us (Paul, you, me) are here right now, but the global majority has not joined us online. Yet.
And when they do come, don't you think that they will want the convenience of having toys and groceries delivered directly to them from eToys and Webvan? Won't Yahoo! be the jumping-off point for more and more e-jaunts? And what kind of double bonus will that be for companies like Amazon and Priceline who keep widening their offerings as the audience thickens too?
Companies like Siebel and i2 will make companies more efficient, but it is the consumers who are about to have their lives revolutionized by the Internet. So, blow off those cobwebs that have gathered on that coat over the last few months. Try it on again. You will find that it will still suit you just fine.
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