Workshop Election Rules
We practice unemotional investing with the Foolish Four strategy and our Workshop strategies. Whatever happens we are supposed to simply follow the rules and let the chips fall where they may. It would sure be nice if that kind of unemotionalism could spread to the presidential election process. Unfortunately, the process hasn't got clear-cut rules to follow. But there is still room for some unemotional, non-partisan thinking.
By Ann Coleman (TMF AnnC)
November 22, 2000
On the Workshop discussion boards the community has a mantra: Follow the screens. That thought carries with it the understanding that there will be tough times in the market, but that a steady hand and a commitment to a pre-defined strategy are preferable to decisions made during highly emotional times.
While the presidential election isn't the only thing troubling the markets (oil prices and disappointing earnings would be causing plenty of trouble all by themselves), the uncertainty of the outcome and the prospect of a long-term legal battle that could deeply divide the country and impair the next president's ability to govern is about as bad for the market as any political situation I can think of short of war.
I wish I could offer some sage advice for the warring camps in Florida -- something simple like "follow the screens," but Florida is only in this mess because its laws are not as clear and easy to follow as our strategies.
Florida has two statutes that appear to conflict. One says the votes have to be certified and turned into the State Attorney General in seven days, another says that the losing candidate has several days to file a request for a manual recount, but doesn't seem to consider that it might not be possible to complete a manual recount within the seven day deadline. When the laws conflict, you call in the courts.
Like investors that feel their stock has to go up because it's theirs and anyone who thinks differently is trying to pick their pocket, in Florida, both sides argue that the Florida statute that works best for them is the most important one. I know it's probably too much to ask, but I would just love for at least one of the candidates to be big about this, to use some of our Workshop philosophy and take an unemotional approach.
The problem is that Florida is tied. A few hundred vote difference out of 6 million is a statistical dead heat. There is no "clear intent of the voters." No wonder things are so messed up. However the final count comes down, essentially this election was decided by which party had more voters with head colds on election day. Unfortunately, neither party is likely to accept a coin toss to break the deadlock, or use alphabetical order to break the tie like we do with the IBD screens, but that would be more fair than what is going on now.
It is pretty obvious that if the count were reversed, if Bush were the underdog and Gore was holding on to a slim lead, and the rickety old vote counting machines were in a north Florida county, the legal arguments wouldn't change -- they would just come out of the other side's mouth.
Would Gore be saying, I know I'm ahead, but let's look at those Florida panhandle votes again to make sure every gun owner's vote was counted? Would Bush be saying the deadline is more important than counting those panhandle votes?
I'm pretty disgusted with both sides. Neither seems to be able to see that the other side has valid points. Gore blew the military absentee ballot issue, and Bush's insinuations that the election is being stolen right under the cameras of CNN with his own people watching every move is just plain weird given the Texas law that clearly allows and gives precedence to manual recounts. Maybe we should call in a crack team of Canadian election commandoes to straighten out the mess. (The Canadians are the only folks that might be polite enough not to laugh at us.)
In spite of my disgust and everyone else's fear, loathing, mirth, anger, shame, regret, greed, and sanctimonious self-righteousness, we are stuck with the process and it's going to impact our investments. We are in for a very emotional, very turbulent time. In the long term, we will all be fine, but we could be better if everyone would calm down and take a long term view. It's only four years.
Fool on and prosper!
