By Ann Coleman (TMF AnnC)

RESTON, VA (Jan. 27, 2000) -- On Monday I considered the Wall Street Wisdom that says "As goes January, so goes the year" and, I thought, I made the point that I didn't think one could predict bad years, even from bad Januarys, but that since bad years happen, one might as well expect one eventually, and the best way to prepare for them was simply to have your financial house in order so that you can comfortably weather the storm.

I received a fair amount of e-mail on that article, split pretty evenly between people who congratulated me for my common sense and those who thought I had no sense at all because a) I was predicting we were in for a bad year and how dumb is that? or b) knowing that bad times were ahead, why wasn't I suggesting that everyone sell out and head for the hills. Sigh.

Let me make something very clear: I'm not predicting or even thinking that maybe year 2000 will be a bad year for investors. I don't know what this year will bring. Other braver souls than I will have to read the charts, study the global economic situation, assess the quantum state of their tea leaves, and stick their necks out.

I do feel rather strongly that, barring global catastrophe, a bad year or two, or even a bad decade or two, will do little to affect the ongoing, gradual, upward economic progress of mankind. That's because progress is based on basic human nature -- the desire most of us have to care for our families, make our lives easier and more beautiful, help our fellow man when we can, and do things well. In some people those drives are combined with a spark of creativity and a desire to do things better. Those people lead the economic expansion and the rest of us build on their innovations.

(OK, not everyone fits those descriptions. The old gene pool has its share of pond scum. Maybe that's where my cock-eyed optimism comes in. I don't think the scum will win. They may slow us down, but in the long run they will be irrelevant -- just like the folks who think they can predict the short-term direction of the market. Just like most of us, come to think of it.)

If a month like this gives you the willies, a visit to our Personal Finance area and/or the new Retirement area may be in order. Selling all your stocks and moving to a self-sufficient homestead is probably overkill.

Meanwhile, our Foolish Four stocks actually had a pretty good day today with J.P. Morgan <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: JPM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: JPM)") end if %> and General Motors <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") end if %> both showing significant gains. That puts our portfolio ahead almost two percent for the day and puts us back into the black for the month. Hey, we're beating the pants off the Dow and S&P 500 this year! We're even beating that wild child, the Nasdaq.

Of course, that's meaningless. One day or even one month doesn't tell us much about where we will be next December. One of these days (I'm NOT saying when!) we will have a bad day and that will be just as meaningless.

Tomorrow we will look at just how meaningless one day really is. I will be reporting on a recent study by Bob Price (TMF Sandy) that looks at holding Foolish Four stocks for two years. Stay tuned. There are some surprises in the data.

Fool on and prosper!