By Ethan Haskel (TMF Cormend)

BALTIMORE, MD (Dec. 29, 1999) -- It's the last week of the last year of the millennium. OK, everyone knows by now that's not technically true, since the new millennium really doesn't start until 2001, but since most of our readers are expecting a millennium piece, here goes!

Just what is it about this millennium thing anyway that's caused a veritable bull market on predictions for the future? When I run the words "predictions" and "millennium" through a Web search, I'm deluged with about 19,000 Web pages. There's the expected spate of stock market forecasts, running the entire spectrum, from Dow 100,000 to The Crash of the Millennium.

If we look at the Web pages 900 to 1000, it gets more interesting. There are predictions about the upcoming baby boom next year, as couples try for their millennium babies. The site offers advice for the optimal week for conception, in order to have the best chance for birthing a millennium week baby.

There are all kinds of predictions about earthly cataclysms, with destruction involving all temperature extremes. Little did I realize that Robert Frost was way ahead of our millennial prophets with the classic poem "Fire and Ice": "Some say the world will end in fire; some say in ice."

We find the Web page of Hasan Jafer, who notes that Mercury starts the century in Aquarius. His millennium predictions include, incredible as this may seem, "radical changes in transportation, education, and mass communication," as well as "major revelations in astronomy." Oh, yes, he also sees "astrology accepted as a social science."

I ran across a site called the Oracle of Delphi ("You have traveled far to reach this remote site"). It lets you ask the Oracle questions, "and await Apollo's guidance." I couldn't resist. My question -- "How will the Foolish Four perform this year?" -- was answered immediately with "Go bowling tonight. Do you think I'm joking?" That's very Foolish advice, by the way, for anyone who aspires to predict the markets in the short run.

For the record, I'm not here to make market predictions. If you want to know which way stocks are heading next year, find another website. Or pick up the latest issue of Money or Barron's, for a special session with Wiser oracles.

There's no shortage of predictions. It's credibility that seems to be in short supply. Tomorrow we will look at how some past predictions worked out, and see what history can teach us. Meanwhile, I'm going bowling.


Beating the S&P year-to-date returns (as of 12-28-99):

Schlumberger <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SLB)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SLB)") end if %>       +27.0%
Kimberly-Clark <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: KMB)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: KMB)") end if %>     +21.2%
Campbell Soup <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CPB)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CPB)") end if %>      -27.3%
Ford Motor Co.  <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: F)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: F)") end if %>      -7.0%
Bank of America  <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BAC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BAC)") end if %>   -15.0%
Beating the S&P                -0.2%
Standard & Poor's 500 Index    +19.2%

Compound Annual Growth Rate from 1-2-87:
Beating the S&P               +24.0%
S&P 500                       +17.9%


$10,000 invested on 1-2-87 now equals:
Beating the S&P             $163,700 
S&P 500                      $84,900

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