<FOOLISH FOUR PORTFOLIO>

Leftovers, Ummmmm
And a lesson in statistical literacy

by Ann Coleman
([email protected])

Reston, VA (November 27, 1998) -- I love leftovers. The highlight of the Thanksgiving feast for me is that I can cook once and eat well for about two weeks. Today I am offering you a leftover from a nearby feast that is not only delicious but nutritious.

As regular readers of this column have noticed, since September we have been occasionally investigating the merits of the Foolish Four approach using some simple statistical tests. Statistical literacy is as important these days as being able to compare interest rates (which is about as important financially as being able to add 2 and 2). Without some statistical education, you may find yourself helpless to make rational decisions.

Unfortunately, most Americans would rather eat a live squirrel than learn anything about statistics. That leaves us very vulnerable to those who can manipulate the numbers.

Wednesday Ethan Haskel, a contributor to the Foolish Workshop and the originator of the Beating the S&P strategy (more about that soon, I promise), wrote an excellent column on this subject. It was so impressive that I am dismissing class early today to encourage you all to read On the Proper Use of Lampposts. Read it carefully -- see if you can spot the ringers.

Turkey on rye, anyone?

Fool on and prosper!
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Current Dow Order | 1998 Dow Returns

11/25/98 Close
Stock  Change   Last
--------------------
UK   +   1/4   45.94
IP   +   1/16  43.13
MO   -   3/16  58.13
EK   -   5/16  74.75

                   Day   Month    Year
        FOOL-4   -0.04%   5.25%  16.73%
        DJIA     +0.20%   8.62%  18.02%
        S&P 500  +0.46%   8.52%  22.86%
        NASDAQ   +1.57%  13.83%  28.41%

    Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change

 12/31/97  276 Philip Mor    45.25     58.13    28.45%
 12/31/97  206 Eastman Ko    60.56     74.75    23.43%
 12/31/97  291 Union Carb    42.94     45.94     6.99%
 12/31/97  289 Int'l Pape    43.13     43.13     0.00%


    Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change

 12/31/97  276 Philip Mor 12489.00  16042.50  $3553.50
 12/31/97  206 Eastman Ko 12475.88  15398.50  $2922.63
 12/31/97  291 Union Carb 12494.81  13367.81   $873.00
 12/31/97  289 Int'l Pape 12463.13  12463.13     $0.00


               Dividends Paid YTD  $1092.81
                            TOTAL  $58364.75

</FOOLISH FOUR PORTFOLIO>