<THE FOOLISH FOUR>

Fresh-Baked Dow Returns
by Ann Coleman
([email protected])

Reston, VA. (November 9, 1998) -- Thanks to all of you who contributed to the survey a couple of weeks back, I've cooked up a new 1998 Dow Returns page that I think (hope) will be a bit more nourishing than our old version.

Some of you responded to the survey by saying, essentially, "It's perfect, don't change a thing." We appreciate the compliment, and I hope you find these changes only for the better. I regard this version as a beta test, though, and am quite willing to tweak it over the next few weeks -- so now is the time to complain!

For AOL readers, I should mention that the new 1998 Dow Returns page is on the web only. It's an experiment. Give it a try and let me know if you have problems. Here's the link again: 1998 Dow Returns.

To those of you who mentioned that you checked the returns often to see if you had "picked the right strategy," tsk, tsk. I hope those comments were somewhat in jest. It is impossible to predict which strategy will do best in any one year. Sure, it's fun to see how each strategy is doing and maybe even speculate as to why one is doing better than another, but please don't fall into the trap of picking the strategy with the best current performance. Hindsight needs to be viewed through a wide-angle lens. The long-term results are a far better guide -- to whatever extent past performance can guide us.

How 'bout that market? Just couldn't get over that 9000 mark. Performance anxiety, I guess. Still, the market's performance lately has been very strong. We Fools try not to put too much emphasis on short-term market movements, and certainly the market's roller coaster ride over the last four months has confirmed the wisdom of that approach. After all the gloom and doom that was tossed around last August, though, it seems only reasonable to point out what a short-term phenomenon that disaster turned out to be.

Now that our beloved Dow is again behaving itself, we should... what? Fageddaboutit. That's right.

Before we forget about it, though, I just have to note that all of our Foolish Four stocks are finally in the black at the same time -- and Eastman Kodak <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EK)") end if %> is back over the 30% mark. In fact, our Little Portfolio That Could is bouncing around near its all-time high. Unfortunately, every time it bounces, it hits its head on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

Will this be the second year in a row that the Foolish Four loses to the S&P 500? If so, it won't be the first time. The S&P beat the Foolish Four twice in a row in 1965-1966 and 1994-1995, and in 1988, 1989 and 1990 the S&P "won" three years running. If it weren't for those rolling 10 year returns, I would be worried.

Fool on and prosper!

Current Dow Order | 1998 Dow Returns

11/09/98 Close
Stock  Change   Last 
 -------------------- 
 UK   +   3/4   45.63 
 IP   -   3/8   45.75 
 MO   +   1/16  53.06 
 EK   +1  3/16  79.19 
 
 
                    Day   Month    Year 
         FOOL-4   +0.64%   4.97%  16.42% 
         DJIA     -0.86%   3.56%  12.51% 
         S&P 500  -0.95%   2.87%  16.46% 
         NASDAQ   +0.24%   5.06%  18.51% 
  
     Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change 
  
  12/31/97  206 Eastman Ko    60.56     79.19    30.75% 
  12/31/97  276 Philip Mor    45.25     53.06    17.27% 
  12/31/97  291 Union Carb    42.94     45.63     6.26% 
  12/31/97  289 Int'l Pape    43.13     45.75     6.09% 
  
  
     Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change 
  
  12/31/97  206 Eastman Ko 12475.88  16312.63  $3836.75 
  12/31/97  276 Philip Mor 12489.00  14645.25  $2156.25 
  12/31/97  291 Union Carb 12494.81  13276.88   $782.06 
  12/31/97  289 Int'l Pape 12463.13  13221.75   $758.63 
  
  
                              CASH    $754.73 
                             TOTAL  $58211.23