<THE FOOLISH FOUR>

Ode to Chuckles
by Rick Aristotle Munarriz
(TMF Edible)

MIAMI, FL (Sep. 17, 1998) -- The Mary Tyler Moore Show's Mary Richards tried to remain somber as the late Chuckles the Clown was eulogized:

A little song, a little dance
A little sell signal down your pants

Sell signal? Seltzer? Same difference. They both ultimately go flat. One stains. One unstains. Neither one sustains. The moral of the story, cold clown notwithstanding, is that persistence pays. We were fed media-spun fear. We spat it back out. As Fools we all knew that corrections come and corrections go. While the focus should always be on the long term, it's amusing to note that over the past week the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the very fishing pond for our Foolish Four, has been up each and every single day since my column here last Thursday. Friday, up. Monday, up. Tuesday, up. Wednesday, up. Today? Okay, all good streaks must end somewhere. Still, even today, all but one of our four Foolish Four stocks -- Union Carbide <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UK)") end if %> -- held up better than the market gauges.

Not that this is all about today. It just happens to be today, today. Let's take this year. While the last few months have been rocky, the Foolish Four stocks since the year-end switch are not only beating the averages (again), but it wasn't until today that the 1998 year-to-date gain slipped back below double-digit gains. That's right, gains. On an annualized basis this year has been about average historically. Of course, you wouldn't know that from reading the paper.

Since when did the obituary section become front page fodder? It was Chuckles that died, not the market. With panic peddlers shouting "Extra! Extra!" from the street corner, why don't we read all about it? Lately I have seen some laughably inaccurate headlines.

Like...

Stocks Go on a Roller Coaster Ride -- I understand the imagery. It's a wild ride with highs and lows, but the stock market is not a roller coaster. Basically, a roller coaster loads and unloads from the same platform. At the same level. The dips may come harder and faster than the chainlifts, but they eventually balance out. That's not the case in reality. Historically the market has a tendency to head higher. It's not a perfect first hill, but if you hop on for the long term, chances are when you do decide to get off, you'll be on higher ground.

Wall Street Braces for Bear -- Again, who panicked? To most long-term investors the paper losses of the recent correction were mere paper cuts in a lifetime of healthy capital appreciation. The pessimistic punditry came from bears who have been saying "I Told You So" for years, as thousands of Dow points have been tacked on. Make no mistake about it, in your lifetime you will see some pretty dramatic bear markets. Maybe we're going through a dead cat bounce in the middle of one right now, but who is timing the market beyond those who are bound to cash out at the bottom after buying in at the top?

Sammy Sosa Hits Number 63 -- Hey, how did that one get in here? Again, focus lost. The world was so captivated by McGwire hitting that record 62nd homerun, with all the exclamation point of the recent market tumble, that we forgot about Sammy "The Bull" Sosa marching right back into the thick of things. That's right, I know Sosa is actually a bear, a Chicago Bear, but, please, play along with my sandlot revelry.

The headlines are bold, in both type and pontification. Yet the story tells a different truth. In the end, we get the point, don't we? Mary Richards worked in the news room. She couldn't handle the fact that no one was taking the death of Chuckles seriously. She, the media, had it all wrong. It wasn't until she was there, rattling off the signature punch line of the deceased clown, that it came to her. Just like the reporter who is writing about that grizzly bear market and suddenly has to insert that long-term Dow graph into the story. It all then makes sense. Chuckles made us chuckle. And the market made us money.

A little song.

A little dance.

A little seltzer down your pants.

This Fool has left the building. (As the MTM kitty goes, "Meow!")

Current Dow Order | 1998 Dow Returns

What Happened to Robert Sheard?

09/17/98 Close
Stock  Change   Last 
 -------------------- 
 UK   -1  9/16  37.44 
 IP   -   7/8   43.63 
 MO   -1        44.63 
 EK   -  11/16  84.19 
  
 
 
                    Day   Month    Year 
         FOOL-4   -2.04%   6.44%   7.83% 
         DJIA     -2.67%   4.44%  -0.44% 
         S&P 500  -2.55%   6.41%   4.99% 
         NASDAQ   -2.58%   9.81%   4.83% 
  
     Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change 
  
  12/31/97  206 Eastman Ko    60.56     84.19    39.01% 
  12/31/97  289 Int'l Pape    43.13     43.63     1.16% 
  12/31/97  276 Philip Mor    45.25     44.63    -1.38% 
  12/31/97  291 Union Carb    42.94     37.44   -12.81% 
  
  
     Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change 
  
  12/31/97  206 Eastman Ko 12475.88  17342.63  $4866.75 
  12/31/97  289 Int'l Pape 12463.13  12607.63   $144.50 
  12/31/97  276 Philip Mor 12489.00  12316.50  -$172.50 
  12/31/97  291 Union Carb 12494.81  10894.31 -$1600.50 
  
  
                              CASH    $754.73 
                             TOTAL  $53915.79