<THE FOOLISH FOUR>
by Robert Sheard
LEXINGTON, KY. (July 29, 1998) -- In a press release admittedly calculated to put the firm on the Wall Street map, Letz, Proffitt & Bigg announced today that it's taking on the big shots. Move over Barton Biggs, step aside Ralph Acampora, out of the way Abby Joseph Cohen. You want real market forecasts? Come and get 'em.
Instead of short-range guesses about the next quarter or two, Letz, Proffitt & Bigg are pulling out the long-term crystal ball and marking down their predictions for all to see. If they're right? You saw it here first.
By August 1, 2003 the Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 15,000.
By August 1, 2008, the Dow will reach 25,000.
By August 1, 2013 (they're not superstitious), the Dow will reach 42,000.
By August 1, 2018, the Dow will reach 71,000.
And a quarter-century from now, by August 1, 2023, the Dow will reach 120,000.
In a statement intended to be inflammatory, chief investment strategist Mark D. Spotte declared, "We've had it with these highly-paid wafflers coming out and making their tired little short-term calls. Let's have some real chutzpah on Wall Street and you tell me where the Dow will be on your retirement day. If you're big-time wrong, give back the yacht to the customers."
Write it down, readers. Long-term forecasts for the Dow. In black and white.
[For the vision impaired, who couldn't see the author's tongue surgically packed into his left cheek, this is but a reminder of the dangers of a short-term focus. Letz, Proffitt & Bigg's target values for the Dow are nothing more than today's level of 8,900 compounded at 11% a year (the Dow's historical growth rate for the past seven decades) over the next twenty-five years. You still worried about this quarter?]
[Rankings Note: Philip Morris <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") end if %> is no longer the lowest-priced of the ten high yielders, so no stock is skipped in the current Foolish Four/Unemotional Value Four rankings.]
Current Dow Order | 1998 Dow Returns
[Robert Sheard is the author of the The Unemotional Investor (Simon & Schuster, 1998) available now at Amazon.com and your local bookseller.]
07/29/98 Close
Stock Change Last -------------------- UK -1 3/8 48.69 IP - 5/8 42.31 MO +1 1/16 43.88 EK - 1/8 83.06 |
Day Month Year
FOOL-4 -0.55% 3.83% 12.74%
DJIA -0.22% -0.41% 12.73%
S&P 500 -0.44% -0.76% 15.95%
NASDAQ -0.76% -0.70% 19.81%
Rec'd # Security In At Now Change
12/31/97 206 Eastman Ko 60.56 83.06 37.15%
12/31/97 291 Union Carb 42.94 48.69 13.39%
12/31/97 289 Int'l Pape 43.13 42.31 -1.88%
12/31/97 276 Philip Mor 45.25 43.88 -3.04%
Rec'd # Security In At Value Change
12/31/97 206 Eastman Ko 12475.88 17110.88 $4635.00
12/31/97 291 Union Carb 12494.81 14168.06 $1673.25
12/31/97 289 Int'l Pape 12463.13 12228.31 -$234.81
12/31/97 276 Philip Mor 12489.00 12109.50 -$379.50
CASH $754.73
TOTAL $56371.48
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