<THE FOOLISH FOUR>

Foolish Four Report
by Robert Sheard

LEXINGTON, KY. (May 29, 1998) -- Let's end the week with a Dow Data Day, focusing on the returns for the thirty components over a variety of periods. Every once in a while it helps to stand back and look at everything from the last six months to the past decade to get a sense of how strong (or weak) certain Dow stocks have been.

For example, over the last twelve months, ten stocks have compiled returns of 40% or better (the lists will follow), while the average Dow stock gained 31.6%. Just three of the thirty stocks lost money over the last year, and not entirely by coincidence, all three of them are in this year's Foolish Four model holdings.

Let's look at the best and worst for several periods:

 
 Best Performers, Last Six Months 
 Wal-Mart Stores    36.8 
 McDonald's Corp.   35.6 
 Du Pont            33.7 
 Sears  Roebuck     32.3 
 Amer. Express      30.4 
  
 Worst Performers, Last Six Months 
 Philip Morris     -13.8 
 Boeing             -9.9 
 Minnesota Mining    0.4 
 Chevron Corp.       1.4 
 Int'l Paper         2.6 
  
 Best Performers, 1 Year 
 AT&T Corp.         84.3 
 Wal-Mart Stores    81.1 
 Travelers Group    66.8 
 Amer. Express      57.1 
 Gen'l Electric     55.9 
  
 Worst Performers, 1 Year 
 Eastman Kodak     -10.9 
 Philip Morris      -2.2 
 Union Carbide      -1.1 
 Boeing              2.7 
 Minnesota Mining   11.8 
  
 Best Performers (annualized), 3 years 
 Travelers Group    64.7 
 Gen'l Electric     48.0 
 Amer. Express      45.6 
 Merck & Co.        44.0 
 United Tech        41.8 
  
 Worst Performers (annualized), 3 years 
 Eastman Kodak      10.5 
 Int'l Paper        13.3 
 Union Carbide      16.8 
 Gen'l Motors       17.8 
 Minnesota Mining   20.3 
  
 Best Performers (annualized), 5 years 
 Travelers Group    40.8 
 Int'l Bus. Mach.   38.6 
 Amer. Express      35.8 
 United Tech        35.1 
 Hewlett-Packard    33.6 
  
 Worst Performers (annualized), 5 years 
 AT&T Corp.         12.1 
 Int'l Paper        12.3 
 Gen'l Motors       13.3 
 Wal-Mart Stores    14.4 
 Minnesota Mining   14.8 
  
 Best Performers (annualized), 10 years 
 Coca-Cola          34.0 
 Travelers Group    32.8 
 Gen'l Electric     27.2 
 Procter & Gamble   26.7 
 Disney (Walt)      24.9 
  
 Worst Performers (annualized), 10 years 
 Gen'l Motors       10.3 
 Int'l Bus. Mach.   10.7 
 Goodyear Tire      11.2 
 Int'l Paper        12.1 
 Eastman Kodak      12.4 
 

If you'd like to run your own comparisons, the following table includes all the returns and periods for each of the thirty Dow stocks. Enjoy playing with the numbers and have a Foolish weekend!

 
 6 Mo.   1 Yr.  3 Yr.  5 Yr.  10 Yr.  Company Name  
  8.8    22.9   32.3   23.9   22.3   AlliedSignal Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ALD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ALD)") end if %> 
  6.6    12.2   22.1   20.8   16.4   Aluminum Co. of Amer. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AA)") end if %> 
  30.4   57.1   45.6   35.8   20.5   Amer. Express <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AXP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AXP)") end if %> 
   9.3   84.3   23.0   12.1   16.1   AT&T Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") end if %> 
  -9.9    2.7   23.8   23.5   19.1   Boeing <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BA)") end if %> 
  21.1   30.4   27.5   29.0   15.8   Caterpillar Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CAT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CAT)") end if %> 
   1.4   24.4   24.9   18.4   18.1   Chevron Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CHV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CHV)") end if %> 
  25.7   20.3   39.1   32.7   34.0   Coca-Cola <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: KO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: KO)") end if %> 
  21.5   53.5   32.0   25.9   24.9   Disney (Walt) <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") end if %> 
  33.7   40.1   33.6   26.4   21.8   Du Pont <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") end if %> 
  17.1  -10.9   10.5   16.4   12.4   Eastman Kodak <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EK)") end if %> 
  16.4   32.6   32.6   21.9   17.6   Exxon Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: XON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: XON)") end if %> 
  15.0   55.9   48.0   33.5   27.2   Gen'l Electric <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GE)") end if %> 
  24.0   20.2   17.8   13.3   10.3   Gen'l Motors <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") end if %> 
  11.8   35.5   25.2   15.7   11.2   Goodyear Tire <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GT)") end if %> 
   8.3   44.9   32.9   33.6   18.5   Hewlett-Packard <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HWP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HWP)") end if %> 
  10.0   45.6   36.1   38.6   10.7   Int'l Business Mach. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IBM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IBM)") end if %> 
   2.6   26.1   13.3   12.3   12.1   Int'l Paper <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IP)") end if %> 
  11.5   18.2   31.9   29.1   24.8   Johnson & Johnson <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: JNJ)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: JNJ)") end if %> 
  35.6   16.4   21.7   21.7   20.2   McDonald's Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MCD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MCD)") end if %> 
  27.3   35.7   44.0   29.9   24.3   Merck & Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MRK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MRK)") end if %> 
   0.4   11.8   20.3   14.8   16.1   Minnesota Mining <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MMM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MMM)") end if %> 
  12.0   32.9   30.6   18.8   20.1   Morgan (J.P.) & Co <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: JPM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: JPM)") end if %> 
 -13.8   -2.2   23.0   24.5   22.2   Philip Morris <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MO)") end if %> 
  10.1   32.4   35.3   29.8   26.7   Procter & Gamble <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PG)") end if %> 
  32.3   25.8   30.9   26.1   19.7   Sears  Roebuck <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: S)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: S)") end if %> 
  24.2   66.8   64.7   40.8   32.8   Travelers Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TRV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TRV)") end if %> 
  16.0   -1.1   16.8   22.8   19.5   Union Carbide <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UK)") end if %> 
  25.5   32.2   41.8   35.1   21.2   United Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UTX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UTX)") end if %> 
  36.8   81.1   29.7   14.4   22.7   Wal-Mart Stores <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") end if %> 
   

Current Dow Order | 1998 Dow Returns

[Robert Sheard is the author of the The Unemotional Investor (Simon & Schuster, 1998) available now at Amazon.com and your local bookseller.]


TODAY'S NUMBERS
Stock  Change   Last 
 -------------------- 
 UK   -   7/16  49.94 
 IP   -  15/16  46.00 
 MO   +   1/16  37.38 
 EK   +  11/16  71.38 
 
 
                    Day   Month    Year 
         FOOL-4   -0.45%  -2.81%   6.52% 
         DJIA     -0.78%  -1.80%  12.54% 
         S&P 500  -0.62%  -1.88%  12.41% 
         NASDAQ   -0.88%  -4.79%  13.28% 
  
     Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change 
  
  12/31/97  206 Eastman Ko    60.56     71.38    17.85% 
  12/31/97  291 Union Carb    42.94     49.94    16.30% 
  12/31/97  289 Int'l Pape    43.13     46.00     6.67% 
  12/31/97  276 Philip Mor    45.25     37.38   -17.40% 
  
  
     Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change 
  
  12/31/97  206 Eastman Ko 12475.88  14703.25  $2227.38 
  12/31/97  291 Union Carb 12494.81  14531.81  $2037.00 
  12/31/97  289 Int'l Pape 12463.13  13294.00   $830.88 
  12/31/97  276 Philip Mor 12489.00  10315.50 -$2173.50 
  
  
                              CASH    $415.96 
                             TOTAL  $53260.52