<THE FOOLISH FOUR>
Shadows on the Moon
by Ann Coleman
(TMF AnnC)
Reston, VA. (October 30, 1998) -- It lurks in the shadows, casting a gray pall of fear over our lives in good times and striking terror into our hearts in bad times. Risk. The bane of the investment world. The Mr. Hyde to the Dr. Jekyll of compounded annual returns. The shadow whispers, "You could lose it all!"
Indeed you could.
Investing is risky. No question about it. The Dogs of the Dow are baying at the moon, and they are saying -- "get a grip!"
Let's all grow up and be adults here. It's not really all that much fun to be terrified of losing your money. It's too much like reading the metro section of your newspaper ("Missing Mother of Three Found in Four Counties -- Head Still Missing") and not enough like renting Scream.
So just how risky is investing? Investing in, say, Indonesian Gold Mining Stocks -- yes, that is risky and you can lose all or most of your money doing that. Investing in Options or Commodities -- yep, you can lose it all that way, too. With commodities you can lose more than you invested. What about plain old stocks?
Yes, you can lose all or most of your money there, too, although your chances of making it through to the credits are better. Companies do go into bankruptcy, and high-flyers subside into a state of permanent underperformance. That's why portfolio diversification is so important.
What about the stocks we follow in this area?
The 30 companies selected by Dow Jones to represent mainstream US industry are a long way from fly-by-night internet start-ups. From those 30 blue chips we pick no more than ten -- the ten that pay the highest dividend yields. The chance of a major US company that is listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and paying a good dividend going bankrupt within one year (our maximum holding time, because if the dividend yield goes down the stock won't make the list for a second year) is so remote as to be almost impossible. You might as well worry about your neighbor turning into a werewolf.
Even if a high yielding Dow stock did hit the skids, you would have three other companies in your Foolish Four portfolio to offset that loss. Diversification is extremely important -- and we will talk about it another time -- but for now, let's look at worst-case scenarios and what happens after the worst happens.
Below is a table showing the annual performance of the Dow 30 and our three main strategies going all the way back to 1962. The returns are for portfolios started on January 2 and held for one year. Scan for the minus signs and look at the subsequent years. Most of the time, the recovery is immediate. Occasionally, there were a couple of anemic years, but the recovery always came.
I don't mean to downplay the effects of a major recession or the risk that any investing entails, but looking at the record for Dow stocks and the Foolish Four strategies, it's more reasonable to worry about needing your money at a time when the market is down and not being able to wait for the recovery than to worry about catastrophic and permanent loss.
Survey update: Still counting, still reading. (Memo to me -- Next time you get a bright idea like this, just shoot yourself.)
Dow 30 DD10 Fool 4 RP4
1961 22.74% 26.91% 23.45% 20.50%
1962 -7.25% 0.15% 0.37% 12.89%
1963 22.98% 21.06% 17.42% 18.62%
1964 17.94% 20.28% 26.79% 24.66%
1965 17.31% 19.34% 12.40% 15.84%
1966 -15.08% -17.90% -17.65% -22.89%
1967 21.75% 25.68% 40.91% 34.07%
1968 10.11% 14.68% 14.09% 18.34%
1969 -9.27% -12.77% -6.66% -8.41%
1970 5.04% 4.73% -5.92% -14.20%
1971 9.10% 5.71% 19.74% 19.74%
1972 16.69% 23.79% 24.91% 16.59%
1973 -10.86% 3.89% 25.74% 17.28%
1974 -15.64% 1.04% 5.25% 20.00%
1975 44.25% 52.17% 68.71% 68.71%
1976 29.36% 33.24% 36.92% 37.93%
1977 -12.58% 1.17% 5.32% -2.96%
1978 2.53% 2.44% 9.89% 9.89%
1979 11.34% 9.69% 2.17% 17.70%
1980 25.29% 32.95% 48.18% 24.20%
1981 -3.30% 4.87% -4.63% 9.66%
1982 19.80% 20.87% 41.58% 56.88%
1983 35.35% 38.43% 41.74% 36.72%
1984 -0.12% 7.45% 10.24% 10.30%
1985 30.98% 30.61% 22.85% 49.82%
1986 21.87% 29.43% 27.30% 29.67%
1987 11.75% 8.56% 18.75% 17.89%
1988 13.78% 17.96% 13.62% 22.08%
1989 31.95% 29.64% 15.28% 47.35%
1990 -9.14% -10.01% -17.61% -17.61%
1991 30.36% 35.24% 81.61% 34.81%
1992 11.00% 6.35% 29.94% 29.94%
1993 17.91% 23.54% 26.22% 30.26%
1994 3.73% 2.43% 4.72% 7.59%
1995 36.69% 37.10% 30.42% 47.05%
1996 24.32% 27.47% 24.34% 26.56%
1997 22.33% 20.39% 22.31% 19.49%
Current Dow Order | 1998 Dow Returns
10/30/98 Close
Stock Change Last -------------------- UK + 1/2 38.50 IP +2 1/8 46.44 MO - 11/16 51.13 EK +1 9/16 77.50 |
Day Month Year
FOOL-4 +1.63% 0.06% 10.91%
DJIA +1.14% 9.56% 8.65%
S&P 500 +1.18% 8.03% 13.22%
NASDAQ +0.81% 4.58% 12.80%
Rec'd # Security In At Now Change
12/31/97 206 Eastman Ko 60.56 77.50 27.97%
12/31/97 276 Philip Mor 45.25 51.13 12.98%
12/31/97 289 Int'l Pape 43.13 46.44 7.68%
12/31/97 291 Union Carb 42.94 38.50 -10.33%
Rec'd # Security In At Value Change
12/31/97 206 Eastman Ko 12475.88 15965.00 $3489.13
12/31/97 276 Philip Mor 12489.00 14110.50 $1621.50
12/31/97 289 Int'l Pape 12463.13 13420.44 $957.31
12/31/97 291 Union Carb 12494.81 11203.50 -$1291.31
CASH $754.73
TOTAL $55454.17
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