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Friday, February 28, 1997
The Daily Dow FOOL GLOBAL WIRE by Robert Sheard LEXINGTON, KY. (Feb. 28, 1997) -- As February closes, it's simultaneously hard to believe the year is already two months old and only two months old. With the volatility of late, it seems that much more time has passed, and in fact, looking at the year-to-date returns for the Dow, even after this week's declines, it seems that we should be closer to June or July than just finishing February. It's the old "time flies" dilemma. (If you really want an interesting, disturbing, fascinating read on this topic, pick up Martin Amis's Time's Arrow.) But at 6,877 the Dow is already up 6.7% for 1997. That doesn't sound like a world-beating amount, but for a two-month return, it's quite impressive. If we were to run that return out to an annualized number, 1997 would achieve a total gain of more than 47%. Most analysts, even the most bullish ones, don't see that as reasonable to expect, of course. It would take the Dow up to nearly 9,500 by year end. Some of the more aggressive gurus have staked a claim to 8,000 by year end, but I haven't heard anyone suggest we'd threaten the 9,000 or 9,500 mark this year, at least not without tongue planted firmly in cheek. A lull here, or a correction, or even a little heartache, wouldn't be unusual, and at the same time, it might not be all bad either. The market has risen at about 11% a year on average for most of this century, but looking at any historical chart shows that it's not a neat straight line over the years. One way to look at weak periods in the market is to treat them like exercise or diets; necessary short-term discomfort for long-term benefits. And it always feels so good when you finally stop exercising, doesn't it? Now don't misquote me and claim that I'm making a market prediction. Not at all. I have no idea where we go from here, up , down, sideways, whatever. All I'm saying is that we've had a lot more ups than downs since the Motley Fool opened (and naturally we're taking all the credit), but the philosophies and strategies we teach here aren't just designed for good times. The bad times are bear-able (sorry about that) if you put them in perspective and remain disciplined and as unemotional as possible. Fool on and have a good weekend! (c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of The Motley Fool.	The Current BTD 10 1. AT&T <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:T)") end if %> 2. *International Paper <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:IP)") end if %> 3. *General Motors <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:GM)") end if %> 4. *Chevron <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:CHV)") end if %> 5. *Minnesota Mining <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MMM)") end if %> 6. Texaco <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:TX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:TX)") end if %> 7. Exxon <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:XON)") end if %> 8. J.P. Morgan <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:JPM)") end if %> 9. DuPont <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:DD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:DD)") end if %> 10. Philip Morris <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE:MO)") end if %> ***NOTE: FOOLISH FOUR STOCKS ARE PRECEDED BY AN ASTERISK AND ARE ITALICISED Last Update: 02/28/97
Today's Dow Numbers Stock Change Last -------------------- T - 1/4 39.88 GM + 1/8 57.88 CHV -1 7/8 64.50 MMM - 1/8 92.00 Day Month Year Since 1996 FOOL-4 -0.78% 1.72% 1.23% 30.88% DJIA -0.68% 0.95% 6.66% 34.41% S&P 500 -0.53% 0.59% 6.76% 28.39% NASDAQ -0.28% -5.13% 1.39% 24.41% Rec'd # Security In At Now Change 1/2/96 155 3M 64.50 92.00 42.63% 1/2/96 198 Chevron 52.38 64.50 23.15% 1/2/97 231 Gen. Motor 55.75 57.88 3.81% 1/2/97 618 AT&T 41.75 39.88 -4.49% Rec'd # Security In At Value Change 1/2/96 155 3M 9998.09 14260.00 $4261.91 1/2/96 198 Chevron 10370.25 12771.00 $2400.75 1/2/97 231 Gen. Motor 12878.25 13369.13 $490.88 1/2/97 618 AT&T 25801.50 24642.75 -$1158.75 CASH $396.17 TOTAL $65439.05

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