The Boring Portfolio, 04/11/97: Boring Port Report

Boring Portfolio Report
Monday, April 14, 1997
by Greg Markus (MF Boring)

ANN ARBOR, Mich. (April 14, 1997) -- Late-afternoon bargain hunting helped major market averages recover somewhat on Monday. The Dow rose 60 points (0.9%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each gained 0.8%. Trading volume was light, however, in advance of tomorrow morning's government report on consumer prices, and losing stocks actually outnumbered gainers market-wide.

Since the Boring Portfolio got clobbered Friday on no news and light volume, it's somehow fitting that it rebounded nicely today under similar conditions. Seven of nine Boring holdings advanced, and smartly, while only two declined. Monday's 1.9% gain moved the Borefolio back into positive territory for this challenging month of April, if not yet for the year-to-date.

The tide turned for TIDEWATER <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TDW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TDW)") end if %>, as the stock surged $1 3/4 in response to good earnings reports from offshore drillers GLOBAL MARINE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GLM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GLM)") end if %> and ROWAN <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: RDC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: RDC)") end if %>. Since Tidewater's fleet services offshore drilling operations, if the drillers are experiencing strong demand, chances are good that Tidewater is, too.

Tidewater's fiscal year ended in March, so it will take them a little longer than most other companies to report quarterly results. Expect the report early next month. Analysts are expecting earnings for Tidewater's fiscal fourth quarter to come in around $0.70 per share. That would be precisely double what the company earned a year ago.

Shifting our glance from the oceans below to the sky above, ATLAS AIR <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ATLS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ATLS)") end if %> soared $1 1/4. Atlas reports its quarterly performance on April 24, in the morning. First Call shows a consensus EPS estimate of $0.22.

I'll be participating in Atlas's follow-up conference call on the 24th. What I and others will be wanting to know is what progress the company is making in acquiring additional aircraft and business, and whether Atlas is getting under control the above-average maintenance costs associated with certain aircraft the company leased from Federal Express last year.

GREEN TREE FINANCIAL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GNT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GNT)") end if %> showed signs of life Monday after almost getting blown over last week. Green Tree rose $1 1/4 on good volume. The company reports earnings on Thursday morning, and I'll be covering that conference call, also. The initial wave of quarterly reports from lenders suggests that financial services companies managed to perform quite satisfactorily in the first quarter despite the turbulent interest-rate environment.

CARLISLE COMPANIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CSL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CSL)") end if %> also reports on Thursday morning. Looks like it could be a busy day. Carlisle shares have been under pressure of late -- but then what hasn't been? CSL fell $1 1/8 today, the only Borefolio loss of any consequence.

CISCO SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCO)") end if %> rebounded $2 Monday to lead a mini-rally among networking stocks. The life of that rally may well depend on the Street's reaction to INTEL's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %> earnings report and guidance, which was released after the market closed today. It will also depend, of course, on what tomorrow morning's report on U.S. consumer price inflation shows.

Intel's earnings of $2.20 per share exceeded most analysts' estimates and came in at the high end of the so-called "whisper" number range of $2.15 to $2.20. The company's first quarter revenues and margins were sequentially flat, however. Furthermore, Intel announced that revenues and profit margins for the current would be flattish.

Intel's reported margin of 64% for Q1 was well above the company's (and analysts') model. Consequently, tonight's guidance should come as no surprise. These days, though, traders sees every glass not as half full but as drained dry and about to get knocked off the table.

Finally tonight, the two "O" stocks OXFORD HEALTH PLANS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: OXHP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: OXHP)") end if %> and ORACLE CORP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ORCL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ORCL)") end if %> had good days. Oxford gained $1 1/8 while Oracle advanced $2 1/4 on the bid.

I counted no fewer than eight press releases either from or concerning Oracle today. Perhaps one of the more noteworthy is that the company announced new features and functionality for Oracle Financials, Release 10.7, for Japanese businesses and multinational corporations doing business in Japan.

In addition to native language, currency and reporting capabilities, Release 10.7 supports certain financial accounting requirements and business practices required for doing business in Japan. Among the new features are a Zengin file format for bank transfers, a feature for calculating the appropriate Japanese consumption tax, and fields for Kana and Kanji versions of names and addresses in the database.

(c) Copyright 1997, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of The Motley Fool.

TODAY'S NUMBERS

Stock  Change    Bid
ATLS  +1 1/4   25.25
BGP   +  1/4   20.25
CSL   -1 1/8   27.13
CSCO  +2       53.13
GNT   +1 1/4   31.75
ORCL  +2 1/4   38.75
OXHP  +1 1/2   61.88
PMSI  -  1/8   9.50
TDW   -1 1/8   45.75

                   Day   Month    Year  History
        BORING   +1.87%   0.39%  -4.28%  10.15%
        S&P:     +0.82%  -1.77%   0.40%  19.64%
        NASDAQ:  +0.79%  -0.43%  -5.78%  16.85%

     Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change
  2/28/96  400 Borders Gr    11.26     20.25    79.90%
  5/24/96  100 Oxford Hea    48.02     61.88    28.84%
   3/5/97  150 Atlas Air     23.06     25.25     9.51%
   2/2/96  200 Green Tree    30.39     31.75     4.48%
  8/13/96  200 Carlisle C    26.32     27.13     3.04%
  6/26/96  100 Cisco Syst    53.90     53.13    -1.44%
   3/8/96  400 Prime Medi    10.07      9.50    -5.65%
 11/21/96  100 Oracle Cor    48.65     38.75   -20.35%
 12/23/96  100 Tidewater     46.52     45.75    -1.67%

     Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change
  2/28/96  400 Borders Gr  4502.49   8100.00  $3597.51
  5/24/96  100 Oxford Hea  4802.49   6187.50  $1385.01
   3/5/97  150 Atlas Air   3458.74   3787.50   $328.76
   2/2/96  200 Green Tree  6077.49   6350.00   $272.51
  8/13/96  200 Carlisle C  5264.99   5425.00   $160.01
  6/26/96  100 Cisco Syst  5389.99   5312.50   -$77.49
   3/8/96  400 Prime Medi  4027.49   3800.00  -$227.49
 11/21/96  100 Oracle Cor  4864.99   3875.00  -$989.99
 12/23/96  100 Tidewater   4652.49   4575.00   -$77.49
 
                            CASH   $7660.41
                            TOTAL  $55072.91