Investing For Growth
Investing For Growth
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(FOOL GLOBAL WIRE) LEXINGTON, KY. (September 10): Not much happened for the Investing For Growth model today, or for the market either, for that matter. Quick & Reilly and 3Com had fair positive moves, but no news was behind any of today's moves.
And that means, of course, that I get a change to talk about another favorite subject of mine - golf. I know, I know, I talk about golf a lot. And maybe there's a connection there between golf and investing that's too philosophical for me to ferret out. Then again, maybe not.
But with the excitement on the PGA tour with Tiger Woods turning pro (and playing well, even among the touring pros) and the Senior PGA tour stopping in Lexington this week for the Bank One Classic, golf's on my mind a lot.
I think one of the things the draws me to golf (and investing) as well as drives me absolutely nuts, is that, try as I might to make them so, neither one is an exact science. You can hit 100 perfect 7-irons on the practice tee and then get to a real shot in the fairway and find yourself in a divot, or with your ball against the edge of the rough, and suddenly all your practice shots will only help you so much.
And in investing, all the theory and research in the world - as much as it helps - won't guarantee that your investment will go the way you want it to. There's always that unforeseen event that will jump up and slap you in the face or reward you depending on the whim of fate.
I can't tell you how many "perfect" shots I've hit that have had a bad bounce off a sprinkler head or have hit the green and didn't stick like I thought they should have. The same thing happens with investments all the time. But it happens both ways. I've also hit some real bricks that turned out wonderfully, catching a great break after hitting a tree or a rake next to a bunker. You'd be amazed how many holes-in-one come on absolutely horrible shots that somehow find their way to the hole.
It all boils down to an art form as much as a science. When you do your research, no matter how exhaustive, there's still an element of chance involved, the chance of a buyout, a labor strike, a lawsuit, a big new contract you hadn't foreseen.
But that doesn't stop us from doing the research or putting in the time on the practice tee. Because without the practice and the research, luck alone (or fate) is not enough to get the job done consistently. That becomes painfully obvious for me when I don't play for a couple of weeks and shoot seven or eight strokes above my normal scoring range. You can bet it'll happen in investing, too. For every lucky investment you make, you had better make five or six with some solid research under your belt if you want to succeed over the long haul.
So, don't let the chance element get to you. It'll always be there, sometimes on your side, sometimes not. It's no coincidence that fate has frequently been represented in art as a beautiful but blind woman, rewarding and punishing at her whim. You can't change that. What you can control, though, is everything else. The research, the sound strategies, the Foolish asset allocation. Then let fate have her day. You'll think she's a less capricious mistress in the long run. Fool on!
Transmitted: 9/10/96 |
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