The Motley Fool: The Foolish Workshop, Wednesday, December 24, 1997

Wednesday, December 24, 1997

The Daily Workshop Report
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)

ST. PETERSBURG, FL. (Dec. 24, 1997)

Scroll to the bottom for year-to-date Growth and Value Screen results.

We're approaching the end of the year, so I'm starting to get into a reflective mode. Today, then, let's look at some of the best and worst of 1997, and update the 1997 Keystone model stocks.

The following two lists represent the best and worst performers through December 17 from among the current 100 largest American stocks. During the same period, the S&P 500 Index, the industry benchmark for large-cap stocks, has gained an impressive 32.38%.

              The Best Ten
 219% Dell Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %>
  91% Schering-Plough <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SGP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SGP)") end if %>
  87% Travelers Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TRV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TRV)") end if %>
  87% Eli Lilly <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LLY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LLY)") end if %>
  86% Compaq Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CPQ)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CPQ)") end if %>
  84% Pfizer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") end if %>
  79% Merrill-Lynch <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MER)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MER)") end if %>
  77% Wal-Mart <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") end if %>
  77% Norwest <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NOB)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NOB)") end if %>
  76% Bristol-Myers Squibb <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BMY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BMY)") end if %>

               The Worst Ten
 -28% Columbia/HCA Healthcare <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: COL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: COL)") end if %>
 -28% Eastman Kodak <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EK)") end if %>
 -19% Oracle <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ORCL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ORCL)") end if %>
 -11% Motorola <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MOT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MOT)") end if %>
  -7% Pharmacia & Upjohn <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PNU)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PNU)") end if %>
  -4% Boeing <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BA)") end if %>
   1% McDonald's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MCD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MCD)") end if %>
   1% Electronic Data Systems <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EDS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EDS)") end if %>
   3% Kimberly-Clark <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: KMB)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: KMB)") end if %>
   5% Minnesota Mining <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MMM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MMM)") end if %>

What I find surprising isn't so much the massive numbers posted by the winners. In a strong year, I expect two or three stocks to blow the curve apart. But I am surprised by the relative lack of disastrous results on the "Worst Ten" list. Sure, no one would be happy to find his holdings on this list, but even the unluckiest investor imaginable, one holding all ten of these stocks as his entire portfolio, is only sitting on a 9% loss for the year. I would have expected that result to be far worse. It was indeed a special year for large-cap stocks. (Evidence of that is the S&P 500's out-performance of almost every other market index in 1997.)

Finally today, here's an update on the ten Keystone stocks from January 1, 1997. These results are also through December 17. The stocks are listed in the order of their rankings back in January:

 6.37% Intel <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %>
86.35% Compaq Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CPQ)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CPQ)") end if %>
64.15% Microsoft <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") end if %>
86.62% Travelers Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TRV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TRV)") end if %>
54.39% BankAmerica <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BAC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BAC)") end if %>
51.24% Freddie Mac <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FRE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FRE)") end if %>
31.46% Gillette <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: G)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: G)") end if %>
29.94% Citicorp <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CCI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CCI)") end if %>
37.28% Merck <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MRK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MRK)") end if %>
22.31% Monsanto <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MTC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MTC)") end if %>

59.58% Top 5
47.01% Top 10
32.38% S&P 500 Index

That two of the 1997 Keystone stocks are among the ten best performers from all of the 100 largest is cause for some celebration.

Have a wonderful holiday season, Fools, and check in Friday for new rankings.

Year-to-Date Returns
Monthly Growth Screens
65.71%  Relative Strength  
24.69%  S&P 500 Index  
11.59%  Investing for Growth  
  7.30%  EPS Plus RS  
 -1.23%  Formula 90  
 -2.16%  Low Price/Sales  
 -5.30%  YPEG Potential  
 -3.36%  Unemotional Growth  

Year-to-Date Returns
Annual Value Screens
28.50%  Beating the S&P  
26.91%  Foolish Four  
20.80%  Dow Combo  
18.83%  Dogs of the Dow  
18.79%  Dow Jones Ind Avg  
18.06%  Unemotional Value  
18.06%  Beating the Dow

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