The Daily Workshop
Report
by Robert Sheard
(TMF Sheard)
LEXINGTON, KY. (July 1, 1997) The final numbers are in for the Sheard Blue Chips for the last year, and thanks to CNBC this morning, I feel even better about my returns than I did when calculating them last evening.
Here are the final totals for the fifteen stocks I chose on June 30, 1996. The returns listed here are only for capital appreciation; they do not include dividends or trading costs.
110% Microsoft (MSFT)
93% Intel (INTC)
70% BankAmerica (BAC)
67% Pfizer (PFE)
58% Merck (MRK)
52% Gillette (G)
51% American International Group (AIG)
46% Citicorp (CCI)
39% Coca-Cola (KO)
30% Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
29% Philip Morris (MO)
28% Home Depot (HD)
12% Hewlett-Packard (HWP)
6% PepsiCo (PEP)
3% McDonald's (MCD)
Total Return 46%
S&P 500 32%
How does CNBC fit into it? This morning they announced the results for two major Wall Street Unit Investment Trusts that also just closed out a yearly cycle. SmithBarney's Ten Plus list generated a return (before fees) of 35% and Lehman Brothers' return for the period was either 36.5% or 37.5%. (There was some confusion about how the returns were calculated.)
Keep in mind that these are portfolios presented by companies with big bucks under management on which to collect fees. After fees, both basically kept pace with the overall market and could have been duplicated in an index fund. (CNBC said the fees on the SmithBarney trust were 4%.)
I'm going to take credit for winning this race while I can. (We all know about the dreaded Sheard Effect. The minute I announce anything, I've sentenced it to perdition.) Through a deep-discount broker, though, you could have purchased my list of fifteen stocks last year for as little as $150 in commissions. Add in the dividends I didn't include and you'd have undoubtedly covered those fees plus some. Maybe someone should give me billions to manage? (A guy can dream, can't he?)
For those of you looking to torpedo me this year, here are the "official" opening values for this year's Sheard Blue Chips:
Abbott Labs (ABT) 66.75
Amer. Int'l Group (AIG) 149.38
Citicorp (CCI) 120.56
Coca-Cola (KO) 68.00
DuPont (DD) 62.88
Eli Lilly (LLY) 68.00
Gillette (G) 94.75
Intel (INTC) 141.81
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 64.38
Merck (MRK) 102.31
Microsoft (MSFT) 126.38
Pfizer (PFE) 59.75
Philip Morris (MO) 44.25
Procter & Gamble (PG) 119.50
Wal-Mart (WMT) 63.06
Stay tuned. Good, bad, or indifferent, I'll post the returns periodically.
Monthly Growth Screens (Jan. 3 to present) 32.85% Relative Strength 19.11% S&P 500 Index 13.57% Low Price/Sales 2.32% Unemotional Growth -0.63% Investing for Growth -6.54% YPEG Potential -9.89% EPS Plus RS -19.39% Formula 90 Annual Value Screens (Jan. 1 to present) 19.76% Dow Jones Ind Avg 18.17% Dogs of the Dow 13.07% Beating the S&P 11.02% Unemotional Value 11.02% Beating the Dow 8.88% Dow Combo 3.80% Foolish Four