The Daily Workshop Report
by Robert Sheard (TMF Sheard)

LEXINGTON, KY. (Apr. 29, 1997)

The stock market players had their rally caps working today. Much-better-than-expected economic news (benign wage inflation news and a low durable goods report) launched the bond market, dragging stocks along with it.

The 30-year bond yield slipped below 7% for the first time in recent memory and seemed to boost the broader stock market. The fact that today's rally was so broad, finally including smaller stocks as well as the large-cap issues, seemed to increase the market's confidence that the move was significant.

Whether it lasts or not over the next few weeks isn't really something we spend any time predicting, but looking much farther ahead, I feel pretty secure calling the Dow. How's this for a bold prediction?: by mid 2007, the Dow will hit 18,000!

Sound like something I should blare across a $300-a-year newsletter advertisement? Well... not really. All that calls for is 10% a year for the next ten years, a little below the annualized rate for the Dow over the last seven decades.

Big numbers tend to skew our emotional outlook on stocks and the overall market because we see things in raw points rather than percentage gains. Even as little as three or four years ago, we used to view a 50-point move on the Dow as a significant day. At today's level, it's less than 0.75%.

Nevertheless, today's movement is without question fun for those investors who are long the market. And with three more days in our April accounting period in the workshop, any kind of follow through for the rest of the week would go a long way toward turning the weak year-to-date around for several of the screens that are lagging.

Monthly Growth Screens
(Jan. 3 to present)
 14.23%  Relative Strength  
  6.15%  S&P 500 Index  
 -0.33%  Low Price/Sales  
 -7.68%  YPEG Potential  
-11.41%  Investing for Growth  
-18.29%  EPS Plus RS  
-21.48%  Unemotional Growth  
-25.08%  Formula 90  

Annual Value Screens
(Jan. 1 to present)
 7.97%  Dow Jones Ind Avg  
 7.26%  Dogs of the Dow  
 4.70%  Beating the S&P  
-0.30%  Unemotional Value  
-0.30%  Beating the Dow  
-0.57%  Dow Combo  
-4.95%  Foolish Four