The Daily Workshop
Report
by Robert Sheard
(TMF Sheard)
LEXINGTON, KY. (Mar. 26, 1997)
Yesterday's boost for technology and energy-related stocks showed no signs
of slowing today. With the Dow up only a handful of points, the Nasdaq was
up the rough equivalent of 100 Dow points. Given the disparity between the
year-to-date returns for the Blue Chips and smaller stocks, the gap in
performance this week isn't surprising.
Today even saw the big-name tech stocks powering ahead, with the likes of
INTEL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %> and MICROSOFT <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") end if %> tacking on
5% and 4%, respectively. Joining the bellwethers were stocks like
ATMEL <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ATML)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ATML)") end if %>, COMPAQ <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CPQ)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CPQ)") end if %>, DELL COMPUTER
<% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %>, QUANTUM CORP <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: QNTM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: QNTM)") end if %>, SCI SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SCIS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SCIS)") end if %>, and even SUN MICROSYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SUNW)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SUNW)") end if %>.
Among the oilfield service stocks, ENSCO INT'L <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ESV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ESV)") end if %> joined
the major oil group in a group gusher.
How are our three stop-loss test cases doing these days? It's been over a
month on all three stop points we experimented with now, so let's see where
the stocks are. 3COM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: COMS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: COMS)") end if %> peaked at $80.125 and was stopped
out in our hypothetical model at $60.00 (25% below the stock's highest closing
price). Today it still trades at $35.50, some 56% below its high and 41%
below the stop point. A stop definitely saved investors money on this one.
AMERICAN POWER CONVERSION <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: APCC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: APCC)") end if %> peaked at $31.375 and was
stopped out at $23.50. After that it bounced around for a while and closed
up today at $23.50, right at our stop-loss point several weeks ago. This
one didn't save anything, but it didn't cost anything either. Call it a toss-up.
And finally, APPLIED MAGNETICS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: APM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: APM)") end if %> peaked at $59.00, was stopped
out at $44.25 and now trades at $29.75, even after a big gain today. It's
still 50% off its high and 33% below the sell stop. Another pretty fair success.
This is by no means a statistically significant study, but it is instructive
to watch these stocks in real time to see how a potential sell stop might
help protect your gains with somewhat volatile growth stocks. A group of
Foolish readers are now analyzing a slew of historical information to carry
my superficial stop experiments to a much more thorough level. As they finish
up segments of their research, I'll pass along their findings right here.
I don't expect to find a perfect system, of course, but anything that works
most of the time and improves one's overall returns is good in my book. Stay
Foolish.
Monthly Growth Screens
(Jan. 3 to present)
11.57% Relative Strength
6.72% YPEG Potential
5.67% S&P 500 Index
3.61% Low Price/Sales
-3.46% Investing for Growth
-12.81% EPS Plus RS
-19.11% Formula 90
-20.56% Unemotional Growth
Annual Value Screens
(Jan. 1 to present)
10.54% Dogs of the Dow
6.71% Dow Jones Ind Avg
5.97% Beating the S&P
2.21% Dow Combo
1.60% Unemotional Value
1.60% Beating the Dow
-1.43% Foolish Four