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Case #56: The Hasty Fool


By Rus Stedman ([email protected])

Zelda Zoom floored the accelerator of her brand new Mustang convertible and roared down the freeway at 70 mph, slightly below her normal driving speed. Zelda was in a hurry. Zelda was always in a hurry. That's how Zelda was. She did everything at top speed, even when she didn't have anything to do. She gave the term "going nowhere fast" a good name.

At fifteen, Zelda graduated from high school; she was out of college with honors at eighteen; had been married, given birth and divorced all by twenty-one years of age; and by age twenty-seven she was one of the top salespeople in the country. The product didn't matter -- Zelda sold widgets, wickets, wombats....whatever. She once sold a wildebeest to a woman in Wyoming just to prove she could do it. As a result of her amazing salesmanship, Zelda had amassed a fairly sizable savings account, currently sitting in the bank earning 3.24% annually. Zelda had thought that was just fine -- money in the bank was safe, and you didn't have to worry about it. Zelda had no time to worry about money. She was too busy making it.

But this morning, after her three-minute shower and her five-minute eggs, Zelda happened to catch an intriguing interview on one of the financial channels. Two brothers were being interviewed, and they were talking about how unneeded money kept in a bank was money wasted, as the interest said money earned seldom kept up with inflation.

"Buy stocks!" they encouraged from beneath their baseball caps. Zelda wasn't sure why they were wearing baseball caps on the financial channel. She was less sure of why the caps said "FOOL" on them. That struck her as... odd. But they talked fast, and she liked that. She listened to the report as she did twenty minutes of aerobics in 13 1/2 minutes, and she liked even more what the brothers said.

"...and if you don't have time to research individual stocks," the brothers explained, "Use the Beating the Dow method. It returns twice the market average -- over 20% historically -- and it takes all of an hour or so of research a year! However...." the brothers went on.

"Yikes!" exclaimed Zelda, switching over to Katie on NBC. That's what all she needed to hear. 20% annual returns on her money? For an hour's worth of work a year? With the $100K she already had in the bank, the $50K she'd be able to invest this year and the next, she could buy the huge house and the pleasure boat she was determined to own before her thirtieth birthday, with no problem!

"Yes!" she said as she ran to her car that morning, "I have to buy stocks! I have to buy stocks! I have to buy stocks!" Unfortunately, Zelda had unwittingly recited an ancient and dangerous incantation by repeating "I have to buy stocks" out loud three times. Instantly, she was besieged from every direction by hucksters, shysters, commission-hungry brokers... and other people of ill repute. Her car phone rang.

"Zelda!" said the too-friendly voice. "Cold Call Pete here! Have I got a stock tip for YOU!"

"Sorry, Pete, I have no time for you. I'm going to Beat the Dow!" Zelda said, slamming down the phone. It rang again.

"Zelda! Hi, sweety, it's your old friends, the Smile n' Dial sisters!"

Once again Zelda hung up. "Sorry, sis! Don't need your tips. I'm going to Beat the Dow!"

In the passenger seat there appeared a dastardly dealer who went by the name of Dr. Mortimer Stocktout, although no one was quite sure what he was a doctor OF, or where he got his degree. There were rumors a Cracker Jack box was involved. "Now, Zelda," he said, "let's talk. I just happen to know a company that makes a thing that makes things go really fast! In fact, it trades under the symbol VRUM on the Nasdaq. You like that, don't you?"

Zelda paused. A company that made things that made things go fast HAD to be a good buy! She almost took the bait and asked Stocktout for more information... but she caught herself. "Get out, Tout, I have no time for you. I'm going to Beat the Dow and make a fortune!"

And so it went as Zelda drove on. The Whisper made an appearance -- so to speak -- as did Mo-Mental and the horrific Pork Belly. But Zelda was firm in her resolve. Beating the Dow was the deal for her. It was safe, it was fast, and it paid off handsomely!

Zelda glanced in her rear-view mirror... and nearly had a heart-attack. Smiling back at her was a pleasant-looking man wearing.... what WAS he wearing? It wasn't so much his sudden presence which frightened her. After all, people had been popping up in her car all the way to the brokerage office. No, it was the man's hat. The man was wearing a one of those jester hats, with bells on it.

"Hi Zelda. I'm Motley Fool. And you need to slow down there, ma'am."

"I'm not going that fast," she said. ""Wait... did you say 'Fool?' Why are you wearing that hat? I though you Fools wore hats that said FOOL on them?"

"That just for TV" Motley said. "And I wasn't talking about your driving. You need to slow down, go home, and think this decision through. Beating the Dow is not for you, Zelda."

"What? I'm confused. I was watching the show. I know what those nice boys said. I can make 20% annually and only worry about it for an hour a year! You can't fool me!"

I'm not trying to fool you, Zelda. I'm trying to FOOL you. You could be making the biggest mistake of your life! Beating the Dow is a bad, bad idea for a Type-A like you."

Yikes! Why did Motley Fool utter these near-blasphemous words to Zelda Zoom?

1) Because Zelda has too little cash to invest according to the Beating the Dow Method?

2) Because Beating the Dow is not a reliable strategy?

3) Because Zelda is not allowing enough time for Beating the Dow to work?

4) Because she should be investing in high growth, low-cost stocks instead?

Enter your selection in the field to the lower right, and get immediate feedback on the answer!


The answer is 3.

Motley went on to explain to Zelda:

"The Beating the Dow method has been a reliable investment idea over time, Zelda, but it's not a short-term vehicle.

"What we Fools promote is that both the Motley Fool investment strategies and the Beating the Dow method rely on long-term, committed investing. What you didn't hear the Brothers Gardner say in your haste to see what power suit Katie was wearing today was that no one should ever invest in the stock market unless they A) Have money they can afford to lose (as a worst-case scenario) and B) Have a least a five-year time frame to allow for market fluctuations, corrections or, knock on wood, an actual bear market.

"Since you're already twenty-seven, and you want to buy your house and boat before you're thirty, that gives you an investment horizon of less than three years -- a very dangerous strategy in your particular situation. The 20% annually that the BTD method has returned is an AVERAGE, Zel, not a promise."

"Yikes, I didn't think about that! What if the market went down two years in a row!? Then I would have to wait for it to go back up before getting my house and boat, and that wouldn't do at ALL!" Zelda lamented.

"Of course it wouldn't," said Motley. "Well, not to worry. You can find some short-term investments that will pay better than your savings account, in any case. Remember, your LIFE may be a sprint, but a good investment strategy is a marathon."

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