| BustTheTipstersBanner | JavaFiller |
|
|||
Procrastination ran deep in Dean Lynch's veins. This particular time he was behind the wheel, fumbling for quarters at the 'Exact Change' tollbooth. He had ignored the 'Toll Ahead' signs for miles, and now, a few cars away from the unattended coin basket, he just couldn't find a spare quarter. A dried-up, forgotten French fry sliver slipped through his fingers as he combed beneath his seat for coinage. This was not good. No, this was not good at all. As he closed in he noticed that the orange-and-white striped crossbar rose and fell for the more prepared drivers. The manned change lane was too far away for any kind of cross-lane escape now. He was doomed to tossing in a few dirty pennies and hoping "Open Sesame" was more than myth. He knew he would one day have to tackle his procrastination, but he had been putting that off for years. As fate would have it, a rotund tollbooth attendant carrying a box of doughnuts crossed in front of him. "Please," Dean shouted, and lowered his window. "Can you break a dollar?" "Now son, you are clearly in the Exact Change lane," the attendant said, licking powdered grape jelly from his upper lip. "Isn't literacy required to pass the written part of the driving test?" Dean was not amused by the gluttonous attendant's lecture, but figured that desperate times called for desperate groveling. "Look, please, I'll give you a buck for a quarter," he said. "I'll give you a buck for a quarter -- and maybe one of those doughnuts." The attendant turned to look at the cars behind the quarterless driver, and as he did so, his huge engraved belt buckle reflected the letters "PB" off the sun, momentarily blinding Dean. "Son, you are clearly in no position to negotiate," he said, then extended a sugary hand. "Pork Belly is my name and I'm going to give two words that will save your life: Buy CHRONODO [Nasdaq: LAZY]." Pork Belly, shifting the doughnut box from one hand to the other, began to explain what Chronodo did. The company made hand-held time management devices called Procrastinator Detonators. Customers could enter a task, along with its deadline, and the Pro-Det Model 500 would nag until the job got done. Three years ago the Pro-Det 500 was second runner-up for Best New Gadget at the Consumer Electronics Show. The cars behind Dean began to honk their horns impatiently. "It's like your mommy in the palm of your hand," Pork said with a wide smile. "Lookie over there at that billboard." Dean looked beyond the tollbooths and saw a billboard worker in the process of posting the Chronodo financials on a huge sign. It looked like this: Chronodo Annual Earnings: This Year La
Sales $28,000,000 $
Net Income $1,000,000
EPS $0.25
Avg. Shares 4,000,000
"Pretty nice, huh?" "I guess so, but what's the deal with last year's numbers?" "Well that's my son up there," Pork explained, fishing for a Chocolate Frosted. "He's a bit slow, but he'll get that last panel up there soon enough. The key here is that the stock is trading at $10 right now. That's just 40 times earnings for a hot company. That's cheap!" "I guess. I wouldn't know." "Come now kid," Pork said, his mouth full. "They earned a quarter last year. I'm sure you could use those twenty-five cents right about now, huh?" Just then Motley Fool popped up in the booth, with bells and pockets jingling. He quickly fished for four quarters and exchanged them for the crisp dollar bill Dean was holding. The drivers behind him burst into applause. "I'm just wondering," Motley began, "whether one can program that Pro-Det 500 to keep relentless tipsters like Pork Belly away for good." Pork Belly, choking on his doughnut, began coughing violently. "Dean, there is a good reason why Pork, Jr. is taking his sweet time putting up last year's figures," Motley explained. "With those numbers you would be hard pressed to buy Chronodo." What could the missing figures possibly show to make Chronodo a bad investment? 1) Nothing at all. They are irrelevant and ancient news.
Belly-Busted! The answer is #3. While current financials are important, they never tell the whole story. One should always compare them to the previous year, and, if possible, earnings estimates for the year ahead. Without it one cannot fully gauge the company's past growth or what analysts see as the expected growth. In the case of Chronodo it was a company with a hot product a couple of years ago, but with sluggish recent sales. Pork Jr. was slow with the roller because sales the previous year were in fact higher than the year that followed. Paying 40 times earnings can be a juicy premium for a well-oiled company, but even more so when earnings and revenues are falling. Falling, as Dean's freshly acquired quarter did into the basket, the gate opening before him. "Thanks Motley," Dean said, waving. "How many procrastinators does it take to pay a toll?" Motley shrugged. "I'll tell you tomorrow," Dean said as he sped away, content in the knowledge that he was set for the next three $.25 tolls.
|
|||
© Copyright 1995-2000, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and redissemination, including posting to news groups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of The Motley Fool. The Motley Fool is a registered trademark and the "Fool" logo is a trademark of The Motley Fool, Inc. Contact Us |