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Case #42: The Dow of Music


By Selena Maranjian ([email protected])


Maria von Trapp scratched her head. She was facing a difficult decision and didn't know what to do.

She had certainly amassed a number of great achievements in her life. She had to admit that she felt some satisfaction, thinking of how she landed the dreamy Captain von Trapp and tamed the seven von Trapp children. She had even taught herself animal husbandry and Mah Jong.

But this was a new challenge. Lately, Captain von Trapp had grown very preoccupied with his new hobby of curling, and was spending more and more time on the ice, sliding that heavy stone across it as accurately as possible. He had even bought himself a fancy personalized broom, with "Georg" emblazoned on it in silver.

As a result, the family's fortunes were no longer being managed very well. Georg had always been the one to buy and sell whatever needed to be bought and sold. And ever since they climbed every mountain between Austria and Vermont, he had done fairly well. Or so Maria had thought.

Since he began spending all his waking hours on the ice, she had taken over managing the money. She discovered that he had parked all their ownings in a single mutual fund, the Edelweiss Fund, which had returned sixteen, going on seventeen percent a year, on average. Not too bad, really. But Maria wanted to do better. And she had confidence that she could master this. She suspected that investing might even become one of her favorite things. She took a deep breath and asked herself, "How do you solve a problem like investing?"

Maria began reading all she could on the subject but it seemed that the more she read, the more confused she became. Until she stumbled upon a book about the Dow Dividend Approach, that is. Little Gretl was in business school now, and Maria had found the Dow book on a list of "Books to Avoid" provided by one of Gretl's professors.

Maria read more about this approach and its country cousin, the Foolish Four, at an exciting and fun website she discovered. They really impressed Maria. She couldn't believe her luck at having discovered these simple but sturdy systems. "Somewhere in my youth or childhood, I must have done something good," she mused to herself. She learned that she only had to buy four or five stocks, hold them for a year, and then buy another batch of stocks every subsequent year. And for this trouble, she would be rewarded with roughly 20% per year.

Maria went ahead and bought the required four stocks -- they were International Paper, Goodyear Tire, General Motors, and Big Bobbin Manufacturing (affectionately known to most folks as BOB). But here's where her problem developed -- last week, Big Bobbin announced that it was selling many more bobbins than ever before, and that earnings were going to be tremendous. The sewing craze that had hit America last year showed no signs of slowing.

As a result of this, shares of BOB had risen from $64 to over $79 in just a few days. With such a big price jump, BOB's dividend yield was now significantly skimpier than it had been earlier (because as prices rise, dividend yields fall). Consequently, BOB was no longer in the select list of stocks to buy, according to the Dow approach.

Maria was now trying to remember what to do. Should she sell BOB, even though she had just bought the batch of stocks a month ago, and replace it with Chevron, which had moved into BOB's place on the list?

She fired up her computer and headed out to find a place where she could ask her question. She ended up in a chatroom for the Dow approach.

BigBlabber: Geez -- I'm as lonely as a goatherd.

Sunfish: Welcome, DoReMi1!

DoReMi1: Excuse me, everyone, but I was wondering...

DoReMi1: With BOB no longer on the list, should I sell my BOB and buy Chevron now?

MrChurner: yes...... you should switch..... buy and sell, buy and sell...

DoReMi1: Really?

Sunfish: I don't know... I think you're supposed to hold.

MrChurner: No -- you must sell it! BOB is off the list! Sell BOB! Buy CHV!

BigBlabber: Won't anyone yodel back to me?

DoReMi1: Hmm...

MrChurner: Look, lady -- I know what I'm talking about. You've gotta sell!

It was at this moment that it happened.

*MsMotliFool has entered the room*

MsMotliFool: DoReMi1 -- do not listen to MrChurner. He appears to be a tipster!

BigBlabber: Hey - how can she have 11 characters in her screenname?

MsMotliFool: You should __________________

*What did MsMotliFool say?*

1) Hold BOB with the other stocks until the year is up, then buy whichever stocks are on the list at that time.

2) Hold BOB only if its price is lower than Chevron's.

3) Buy more BOB because the system calls for you to double-up on stocks growing so fast.

4) Hold BOB but buy an equal amount of Chevron, too.


The answer is 1. Hold BOB with the other stocks until the year is up, then buy whichever stocks are on the list at that time.

The Dow Dividend Approach calls for you to buy whichever stocks are selected by the system on whatever day you begin. You're then to hold them for a year (and a day, to reap the maximum tax benefit). After the year (and a day), sell any stocks not on the list and buy any which are now on the list.

If a stock falls off the list during the year, that's okay -- it means the stock has probably risen, which is good. But you're not supposed to keep reshuffling your holdings during the year -- you should just hold them, and feel free to forget all about investing, too, until next year.

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