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Case #15:
A Tale of Two Petes


by MF Selena

It was a cold and rainy evening, so you spent it on your trusty couch, curled up by a fire with a good book. Unfortunately, you don't have a fireplace, and the fire was actually the end of your sofa, set ablaze by your new Turbo Toaster slipper heater. Don't you hate it when that happens?

Once the fire department left, you spent a few hours scraping charred bits of velour from the sofa, letting your slippers cool by an open window, and ruminating on the book you'd read. It was by Peter Lynch, the former manager of Fidelity Investments' flagship mutual fund, Magellan. As always, Lynch stressed that you don't have to be a Wall Street professional to pick stocks. From Lynch you learned to look carefully around you and notice where consumers are forming long lines, and to pay attention to what products are flying off shelves. Good investors should even take a regional approach, examining companies in their neighborhoods to see which ones are always hiring more workers and which ones seem to be operating in overdrive.

Lynch's arguments made a lot of sense to you, so as you flipped through the Sunday paper's furniture store advertisements, you were paying attention to see if any great stock ideas jumped out at you. None did, though. Rats!

All of a sudden, you heard the jingling of bells! Was it Saint Nick on your roof? Nope. Your new pal Motley Fool, that swashbuckling stock sleuth? Nope, not him, either. It was only the phone.

"Heya, hiya, heya!"

"Excuse me? Who's this?"

"Is this Edna Philpott?"

"Yes, who are you?"

"It's Pete! I knew you were looking for a few good stocks, so I thought I'd call."

You couldn't believe it. What a great guy that Peter Lynch is. Imagine how much time he's spending, calling everyone who reads one of his books.

"Peter -- how nice of you to call! Do you have some more advice for me?"

"You betcha! Check out Great Techtonics. The company is making screaming-fast modems and the stock is leaving this stratosphere!"

"What's a screaming-fast modem?"

"It's fast, baby -- really fast! Hook it up to your computer and you'll be careening through cyberspace! Better load up on Dramamine first, though!"

Peter Lynch's speaking style was beginning to surprise you, but you kept listening. You did remember hearing about Great Techtonics and you recalled hearing on the news how these modems were selling like hotcakes. (Actually, they were selling faster than hotcakes. Hotcake sales are very overrated.)

"Tell me more, Peter."

"What can I tell you? It's a hot stock! You better buy it today! It was selling at $24 per share last week and it's already at $38! At this rate you can triple your money in a few weeks!"

"Well, let me think about it."

"Think about it? What else do you need to know? The company can't meet demand -- they're selling lots of these modems. Everyone loves them. What's not to like?"

"Well, I just..."

"Listen -- are you going to order some now or not? I've got some pork chops here that aren't getting any warmer. Why does everyone always want me to call during dinner?"

You were confused. Should you order some of this stock?

Suddenly, you heard a strange clicking sound. It was call waiting!

"Excuse me, Peter -- I've got someone on the other line. Can you hold on a sec?"

A voice revealing a mouthful of porkchops muttered, "Yeah."

(click)

"Hello?"

"Edna? Listen to me. This is Motley Fool. You're not talking to Peter Lynch."

"I'm not?"

"No. You've got Cold Call Pete on the other line."

(gasp!) "Oh, dear. What should I do?"

Good old Motley Fool. He always seems to show up at just the right time. Not surprisingly, he advised you to hang up on Cold Call Pete and not to order Great Techtonics. But why?

1) You haven't looked at its numbers yet.

2) You haven't looked at its competitive position yet.

3) You haven't learned about the technology yet.

4) All of the above.


4) All of the above.

Motley told you that you needed to do a lot more homework before plunking down your hard-earned money on Great Techtonics. He pointed out that just because the company is growing like gangbusters (Do gangbusters grow faster than hotcakes sell?) doesn't mean that it isn't overvalued. Maybe it has already appreciated to a value higher than it currently deserves. Maybe it has a lot of debt or its customers owe it a lot of money.

Maybe its technology is flawed. Maybe its competitors are about to unveil better, cheaper modems. Heck, there's a whole lot to consider before buying any stock just because it's rising fast.

Stocks that rise fast have also been known to fall fast, so Fools are advised always to do their homework first.

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