CONFERENCE CALLS

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FOOL PLATE SPECIAL

Ascend and Iomega Face Off

I've never claimed to be a contrarian, at least in the hackneyed sense that some choose to use the word. Just because something is "cheap," like READ-RITE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NASDAQ: RDRT)") else Response.Write("(NASDAQ: RDRT)") end if %>, it doesn't mean that I'm going to buy that. And just because something is "expensive," like IOMEGA <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NASDAQ: IOMG)") else Response.Write("(NASDAQ: IOMG)") end if %> or ASCEND COMMUNICATIONS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NASDAQ: ASND)") else Response.Write("(NASDAQ: ASND)") end if %>, doesn't mean that I'm not going to buy those. Nonetheless, I have taken a contrarian view on Ascend in the past partly because it's one of those stocks that Wall Streeters just love to gush about when they sit down in Rukeyser's white leather palace to talk about their latest darlings.

I have an inherent distrust of that crowd when it goes out of its way to wax overwhelmingly positive about one thing and be so negative about another. Below is a comparison of Ascend and Iomega, which I constructed in August (please keep in mind that these were current then and may not be now). I'd like to talk about some of the data points, as I understood them at the time, without commenting in depth on the current investment merits of either. The goal of this exercise is to point out what I feel is important about the comparison per se.

IOMEGA P/E....51.7 ROE....15% Debt....6% Price/Sales....2.6 R&D....$48 million Institutional ownership....10% Insider ownership and closely held: 21% 5 year growth forecast....Analyst coverage too narrow Past 5 years....Not available ASCEND COMMUNICATIONS P/E....84.4 ROE....18% Debt....nil Price/Sales....18.2 R&D....$26.8 million Institutional ownership....41% Inside ownership and closely held....11% 5 year growth forecast....45% Last 5 years....132%

Looking at the ROE (Return on Equity) numbers, they are both in the range of higher-quality companies. Both are showing good numbers there, and since the owner's equity portion of the balance sheet can sometimes be an unreliable number, we'll move on here to Price/Sales. I've been reading Ken Fisher's Super Stocks and talking to MF MOM (Leeza Rodriguez) about this lately. In both Fisher's and Rodriguez's studies, graphical analysis shows that the higher a company's PSR (Price to Sales Ratio), the more danger that stock faces if it doesn't meet sequential sales growth and earnings targets. Recently, Iomega has suffered a PSR compression, as did Ascend, when its sequential growth fell off a bit. With Ascend, the PSR compressed even though the trailing four quarters' sales increased. The fact that Ascend's PSR is seven times higher than that of Iomega should cause Fools to take notice. When the PSR is so high, investors should beware.

To review the other numbers quickly, we can see that the insiders at Iomega exercise their options and hold their stock. The people at Ascend must have a little agoraphobia when they look at their stock price, since they have a higher tendency to cash out on their holdings (on the options that have vested). I always like managements that believe in not only their company but also their stock. The other area where I could take the contrarian slant is the institutional ownership. How much more of Ascend's float could Wall Street and the bankers own? Now look at Iomega. The institutional ownership number alone indicates that there is much more room for the Wise to employ their buying power on Iomega should the company perform up to or beyond their expectations. The last number is the 5-year growth forecast. There are many analysts who have calculated numbers for Ascend. Apparently, Iomega isn't worthy of the wide coverage yet. That, in itself, is a reason to be a contrarian toward it.

To reiterate, I don't have any reason to denigrate Ascend since I now own part of the company, as I do Iomega. I think there's a ton of upside on both of these companies. I just wish that Louis Rukeyser's guests would devote as much studied attention to Iomega as they purport to do to Ascend.

UPS

ORACLE <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NASDAQ: ORCL)") else Response.Write("(NASDAQ: ORCL)") end if %> investors didn't have to consult any oracle to find out how their company is doing today. The company reported its earnings yesterday, meeting analyst expectations and boasting revenues up 36.4% from the year-ago quarter. Cowen & Co. upped the company to "strong buy" and shares popped up $4 to $41 1/2. Alex. Brown and Montgomery Securities both upped it from "neutral" to "buy."

Riding the coattails of Oracle's success is fellow database software concern INFORMIX <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NASDAQ: IFMX)") else Response.Write("(NASDAQ: IFMX)") end if %>, upgraded from "neutral" to "buy" by Montgomery Securities and rising $2 5/8 to $26 7/8.

Shares of UNIVERSAL ELECTRONICS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NASDAQ: UEIC)") else Response.Write("(NASDAQ: UEIC)") end if %> clicked up $7/8 to $6 3/4 (14.9%) after the remote control-maker announced it would buy back up to nearly 15% of its shares.

MICROS SYSTEMS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NASDAQ: MCRS)") else Response.Write("(NASDAQ: MCRS)") end if %> reported fourth quarter earnings five cents below those of the year-ago quarter, but that was still two cents ahead of analyst expectations. Accordingly, shares of the computer system concern popped up $4 1/4 to $27.

The impressively-named ACCESS HEALTH INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NASDAQ: ACCS)") else Response.Write("(NASDAQ: ACCS)") end if %> CEO, Thomas Gardner, announced an agreement to provide Personal Health Advisor, a membership-based personal health management service, to one million members of Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Florida, pumping the stock up $4 11/16 to $47 1/2.

Word that an insider was buying close to a million shares has stock of USA DETERGENTS INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NASDAQ: USAD)") else Response.Write("(NASDAQ: USAD)") end if %> bubbling up to $34 3/8, up $2 5/8. The company announced today that it is accelerating the start-up of a new distribution and powder-filling center in Kansas City, MO.

HEARTSTREAM INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NASDAQ: HTST)") else Response.Write("(NASDAQ: HTST)") end if %> shares were up big again today, soaring $3 3/8 to $17 1/4 after the announcing FDA approval of its ForeRunner automatic external defibrillator (AED).

DOWNS

An article in the Wall Street Journal today questioning the valuation of some "questionable" stocks had shares of OSICOM TECHNOLOGIES <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NASDAQ: FIBR)") else Response.Write("(NASDAQ: FIBR)") end if %> plunging today, down $27/32 to $9 5/32. The WSJ wondered about the prudence of investing in a company which has an investor relations department headed by a felon convicted in connection with bribes to promote stocks and one whose earnings have come largely from an accounting device called "negative goodwill."

EGGHEAD INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NASDAQ: EGGS)") else Response.Write("(NASDAQ: EGGS)") end if %> was cracked as it announced disastrous same-store sales, down 34%, and total sales, down 31%, for the month of August from the same period a year ago. The stock was down $1 1/16 to $6 11/16.

Restaurant food service concern RYKOFF SEXTON INC. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: RYK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: RYK)") end if %> foresees earnings per share in the $0.50 to $0.60 range for fiscal 1997, which ends June 28, 1997. EPS estimates for fiscal 1997 were as high as $1.25, but the company will most likely not meet these numbers due to the its recent merger with US Foodservice Inc. Shares dropped off $1 to $14.

INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IRF)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IRF)") end if %>, specializing in power semiconductors, saw its shares retreat $1 1/2 to $11 3/4 after the company warned that it would significantly disappoint analysts in its first quarter. Again, inventory reduction by customers was blamed.

FOOL PORTFOLIO STOCKS

FOOL PORTFOLIO BORING PORTFOLIO AMER up $3/8 to $25 3/8 BGP unch. at $35 CHV up $1/8 to $61 1/2 CSL down $1/8 to $55 COMS up $1 1/4 to $50 5/8 CSCO up $1 5/16 to $57 1/2 GM up $1/4 to $48 1/2 GNT up $3/4 to $37 IOMG up $5/16 to $14 5/8 OXHP up $1 to $47 7/16 KLAC unchanged at $18 3/4 PMSI unchanged at $13 1/4 MDRX up $7/8 to $39 7/8 SHAW up $1/4 to $31 MMM up$5/8 to $69 5/8 SPY up $3/4 to $68 9/32 T up $1/8 to $55 TXI up $1/8 to $64


Dale Wettlaufer (MF Raleigh), a Fool

Christopher McKay (MF Murdoch), another Fool

Selena Maranjian (MF Selena) another Fool