Friday, September 12, 1997
MarketTimers are
AlleyWhiners
and the Foolish Four Will Always Score
or
The Best Fribble Ever
by Heather Wilhelm
(TMF NoClue), slamming Tom Gardner
(TomGardner), egged on by Dayana
Yochim (TMF
School)
Aside from being the best Fribble ever, this was also supposed to be the World's first two-person Fribble but Tom hasn't risen to the challenge. So alas, I'm forced to pen this manuscript myself. I might add, I'm also eating my three soft-taco dinner delivered by our Foolish leader. (Sorry, Tom, but I had to rub it in.)
It all started about a month or so ago when Tom named himself unbeatable at any sport. "Laser tag?" I asked. "Anytime," he volleyed. "Rollerblading?" "You're toast!" he hollered. "Bowling?" I challenged. He laughed.
Although I'd creamed Tom twice previously in bowling, he's a pretty good, but erratic bowler. The odds were with me, but there was a chance that he could summon a few great games and beat me. Fools, I like to play the odds.
So I challenged the prima donna. The bet? If he won, I'd have to walk his bike over to the shop and have the back tire fixed. If I won, I'd have a number of delivered lunches equal to the value of tire repair. Tom would put a red jacket on every day 'round lunch and... serve.
As we left Fool HQ on a now memorable Thursday evening, money exchanged hands, history was about to be made. (The money-exchanging-hands thing didn't really happen because that wouldn't be very Foolish. But it adds drama, so I'm sticking with it.)
Tom and I agreed that we would battle for three games. Game one began. I was hot, Tom was frigid. At one point, Tom tried to convince me that the first game shouldn't count -- that it was a grapefruit-league, exhibition game. Whatever.
In frame three, our own Dayana Yochim (Fool School Principal) made a fabulous analogy between Tom and I. And, Fools, there this Fribble was born.
"Tom", said Dayana, "is like a market-timer, and Heather is the Foolish Four. Tom may get lucky this frame or next. This game or five games hence. He may beat Heather in one game or maybe even two. But Heather will eventually win because she's the stronger, more consistent bowler. Tom can intermittently brag, can appear on the cover of bowling magazines with some hot promotions. But Heather's going to be the enduring champeen."
Guess what? I agree!
Market-timers move their money in and out of the market based on stars or charts or what their grandmothers say may have a lucky year or two. But overall the Foolish Four -- and other quality, long-term investing models -- will outperform over the longer time frame.
The bowling continued and the Team Fool bowlers devoured grilled-cheese sandwiches and stale potato chips. Then tensions mounted. After getting hammered in game one, Tom cut the lead in game two. By game three, he was on fire. The Alexandria bowling alley grew thick with second-hand smoke and thicker with Foolish trash-talking.
Did Dayana's analogy hold true on this fateful Thursday evening? It certainly did. Heather, true to her Foolish-Four roots, outperformed Tom in total pins over three games. To the victor -- the joy of having Tom Gardner deliver her lunch, if he ever makes good on his bet! And to Fools everywhere -- the joy of market-beating returns over decades -- rather than a few days or bowling frames.
And that, my dear readers, is the rest and the end of this story.