Monday, August 11, 1997
Report From
Al-Dhafrah
or Dry Foolishness
by
TMF Runkle
I am writing this from Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates. That's about an hour outside of Abu Dhabi. Where is Abu Dhabi? Let me check the map for a minute; I don't want to give you bad directions and get you lost somewhere in the Indian Ocean. As you enter the Arabian Gulf (which is commonly called the Persian Gulf back in the US), and pass through the Straits of Hormuz, you go by Sharjah, Dubai and Mina Jebel Ali, then immediately on your left is Abu Dhabi. You can't miss it. In July I left my comfortable place in the Pennsylvania Air National Guard, and came over here for four months with my active Air Force colleagues.
Before I got here, I was told some really bizarre and untrue stories. I was told that the temperature goes up to 130 degrees Fahrenheit, which is not true at all. I haven't seen a day go above 126. Of course the hottest month here is August, and that is just beginning. I was also told scorpions are out to get you here. That's not true either. The camel spiders are. Scorpions leave you alone as long as you don't invade their territory. Unfortunately they often pick your shirt or boots as their territory at night to get warm. Here, they don't need to do that, they just have to go outside. Night-time temperatures stay up in the nineties. Camel spiders, on the other hand, actually jump up and try to get you. You don't even have to make them mad.
Even though it's hot here, it's balanced by a high humidity. At night the clouds come in from the Gulf, and it's sort of overcast until morning. Nigh-time temperatures drop all the way to ninety and the humidity climbs close to 100 percent during that time. During the day the sun burns off the overcast, and humidity feels like it drops to about 80 percent. The hottest part of the day is about 1:30 PM. The sand here is real fine; it's what we civil engineers classify as a "silt" because of its small grain size. We actually have to buy sand to mix with concrete, which seems sort of ludicrous in the desert.
What's it like here? For being in the desert in 120 degree heat or so, it's not bad. We have air-conditioned facilities, VCRs, satellite TV, and two above-ground swimming pools. Other than CNN, I don't have a whole lot of connection with the outside world. Well, I do have Internet access, and a movie channel, and they broadcast ABC, CBS, and NBC news here. Oh, I guess I'm not so bad off, but the Web access is slow.
How does this relate to investing? Actually it doesn't, which is the point of this Fribble. I can't follow my stocks here everyday. If I looked up the news and quotes on the Web here, I'd never get any sleep. CNN is usually giving the closing results of the NYSE and NASDAQ about an hour after I go to bed. Even if I knew on a minute-to-minute basis what my investments were doing, I couldn't do anything about it. My access to phones isn't that good, and calling my broker would be a major effort.
I still have my investments though. The companies I am invested in are ones in which I have confidence for the long term. I've seen all the arguments back and forth about short-term trading, and I have no doubt that some people are quite successful at it. However, I have a lifestyle that doesn't center on the stock market. A short-term strategy based on moving averages, volume, and chart formations is hard to maintain from where I am in the Arabian desert.
Even with my long-term strategy, problems do happen here because of my remoteness. Before I left, I wrote the transfer agents for my Dividend Reinvestment Plans and asked them to stop the automatic withdrawals from my checking account. All went well except with one transfer agent; they not only stopped the withdrawals, they SOLD all of my stock. I did get a recent quote on that stock, and its gone up $10 a share since they sold it. Thanks guys! Another great example of customer service. Can you imagine the mess that would happen in my absence if I tried to leave instructions with a broker for short-term trading? The results might be more painful than a camel spider bite.
I am confident that my stocks will do fine without me during this four-month period. They'll probably do better, since I won't be able to do stupid things with them, like sell Coke for 3Com and then panic and sell 3Com at the bottom. Yes, I did that once. I'm not worried though, I'll have plenty of chances to do stupid things over here. That reminds me, I am going to town tonight, one of the merchants in the Souk has promised me a really good deal on some souvenirs. In the meanwhile, I'll be sure not to accept camel rides from strangers.