In a former life, I was a systems administrator. To help sysadmins manage, there is a Web site which generates random messages to use whenever the network acted up. When a problem intruded on our sleep, we would go to the page and get the excuse of the day to explain it. Slow response time? It must be "Solar Flares." Can't get to a web site? We're having problems with "Bogon Emissions." I can't say any more, the code of the guild and all that. I found that users like a plausible explanation for the unexplainable. And from a Wise perspective, if people don't understand why, it makes it less likely for them to bother you with pesky questions.

But what does this have to do with investing? A lot actually. At the end of every trading day, all the TV shows trot out their pet gooroos who have sound bites to explain the market's actions. Not individual stocks, mind you, but the entire market. Five seconds is not enough time for anything in depth but you can give people the impression that you know what is going on. A nice gray suit helps too.

Usually, the Fed is to blame. As MF DowMan pointed out in last night's Foolish Four report, even if the Fed does nothing, it gets mentioned. But the Fed is not the only culprit the talking heads mention. Foreign investors drive down the Dow, baby boomers push up the market, the bond market is propelling the stock market upwards. People like hearing this, which is why all the shows and papers continue to parade a stream of experts. They will explain to the masses what happened to the market today and forecast where it will go tomorrow. The Wise words reassure the average investor that what seems to be a random process is really understood by those smarter than them. The logical conclusion is that the average investor should give his money to the people he sees on TV.

Well, DowMan's theory that it's all a conspiracy by the Flat-Earth Society is just wrong. There must be a Web site somewhere, generating random market explanations for the investment guild. It is heavily stacked with Fed pronouncements, but there are plenty of other explanations to provide variety. There must also be a media committee that updates the list, since I haven't seen precious metals influencing anything in quite a while. I am waiting to hear that Generation X is driving the market, just like they got a new car. The explanation machine serves a purpose; the Wiseman doesn't have to think. A click of the mouse and he has his sound bite.

So, don't worry if the explanations seem as random as the market; they probably are. And if you hear that the market was driven in some direction by bogon emissions, you'll know that the Wise ones went to the wrong web site for their quote of the day.

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