Mastering Life-Saving Techniques
by MF Cormend

For the last decade or so there has been a raging debate in cardiology circles about which drug is the most appropriate for treating patients who arrive in hospital emergency rooms in the throes of a heart attack. As a practicing cardiologist and former researcher in the field, I've been an active player in this controversy for many years and, believe it or not, I think I can somehow draw an analogy to investing. (If I can't I'm in big trouble; I'll just crawl back under my desk and lets forget we ever started this).

You see, streptokinase and t-PA are two drugs which are prescribed to open blocked heart arteries, restoring blood flow during a heart attack. There are many theoretical reasons to choose one drug over the other; their mechanisms of action are slightly different. Certainly there is no debate whatsoever concerning the effectiveness of the drugs themselves. When used properly, they cut the mortality rate for heart attack patients by approximately 25%. Not until a large randomized clinical trial comparing the two was completed did doctors have much direct evidence to choose one drug over the other.

In this direct comparison study, patients treated with t-PA fared slightly better than those given streptokinase. Of all the randomized patients, only 6.3% treated with t-PA died compared with 7.4% given streptokinase. Was this relatively small difference in results enough to justify the extra $1500 or so price tag for t-PA? Well, needless to say, the debate still rages.

(Okay, Cormend, enough with this pseudo-scientific babble. How is this going to help me make some money?)

The streptokinase/t-PA controversy reminds me a lot of Beating the Dow. (Yeah, right.)

Much of the discussion in the Beating the Dow message folder concerns which variation is ideal. There's good ol' plain vanilla BTD 5. But maybe BTD 4, the Foolish 4, UV 2, UV 4, UV 4+, PPP, HY 5, Combo 5 or BSP have had better returns in the past or might be best for the future. After all, some strategies have returned 22% over the long run while others gained only 20%. Over the last ten years BSP has beaten BTD 5. But has UV 4+ out-performed both over that time period? What about over the past five years? Isn't this month statistically a poor one to start? And what's a Sharpe ratio again?

Don't get me wrong. I relish the theoretical discussions of these approaches just as much as the next Fool. I also enjoy discussing the superiority of t-PA over streptokinase. But I hope investors don't get so confused or thrown off course during these discourses that they miss the main point: All these strategies, like both heart drugs, are so superior to most anything out there that using any one of them will provide huge benefits in the long run, even if it might not be the exact optimal strategy.

It's long been known that a significant percentage of patients having heart attacks who are eligible for either streptokinase or t-PA receive neither or receive them with unnecessary delays. That's simply bad medicine. Similarly, if one gets too caught up in the minutiae of high-yield investment theory, one just might miss the boat entirely; stock purchases might be limited, delayed or dropped altogether in search of that elusive, perfect variation.

And that's simply bad investing.