Friday, December 27, 1996
Honest Chief "Market Strategist"
by [email protected]

Many years ago I worked for a company that was going through "un-growing" pains. Firings (or layoffs or furloughs or down-sizes or your favorite euphemism) occurred on such a regular basis, we'd just check the monthly phone list, compare it to last month's and see who was "welcomed to the next phase of their career," as one division manager eloquently put it at a company meeting. At another such meeting, a "suit" came down from corporate HQ and feebly attempted to repair company morale. He spoke of our many great accomplishments, explained how profitable we'd become, and tried to thank people individually (mispronouncing and mangling half our names). One voice from the crowd spoke up meekly, "Will there be more layoffs, sir?" to which he responded, "Let me be honest for a moment...."

There's a very popular talk-show host in the local market where I live whose style is to jump on small things someone in the news does or says. He takes things out of context, amplifies, distorts, oversimplifies, rants, and raves. And a lot of people seem to love it. Sound like anyone in your neck of the woods? One of his favorite phrases is, "Now, I've got to be honest with you, folks...."

In this morning's newspaper, there's the daily Dow Jones report, "Dow heads off to the races again." It's the second-largest point gain in history. Interestingly the largest occurred two days after the 1987 "crash." Speculation abounds whether this is a sign to "revive what many analysts had diagnosed as a sick bull market." Then we get to the best part:

"We keep working very hard to find reasons to sell stocks and raise cash and be out of the market," said Hugh Johnson, chief market strategist at First Albany Corp., "and it's very hard to find good reasons to do that, to be honest with you."