DJIA 9202.03 +157.57 (+1.74%) S&P 500 1228.54 +24.97 (+2.07%) Nasdaq 2172.54 +51.56 (+2.43%) Value Line ndx 895.71 +11.54 (+1.31%) 30-Year Bond 100 28/32 -24/32 5.19% Yield
In an effort to see just how many auction sites today's Internet-minded investors will scoop up, computing products direct marketer Multiple Zones International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MZON)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MZON)") end if %> threw itself into the "going once, going twice" fray by announcing the launch of its www.auctions.zones.com site for swapping brand-name computer products. On cue, investors drove the company's share price up $44 9/16, or 389.6%, to $56 today, even though the introduction of the auction site had been pre-announced on Dec. 7 and promptly rewarded with a one-day 52% price jump. Meanwhile, fellow computer products auctioneer uBid <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: UBID)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: UBID)") end if %> jumped $53 1/2 to $188 and parent Creative Computers <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MALL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MALL)") end if %> tagged along with a $12 25/32 gain of its own to $59 11/16. Auction old-timer Sotheby's Holdings <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BID)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BID)") end if %>, which rose 6% yesterday on speculation that it, too, will offer online auction services someday soon, added another $3 3/4 to $33 1/2.
Swedish automaker Volvo AB <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VOLVY)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VOLVY)") end if %> shifted into overdrive and gained $3 7/8 to $25 9/16 as speculation that the company may be acquired by its larger U.S. competitor Ford Motor Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: F)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: F)") end if %> intensified. Ford rose $2 1/2 to $58 3/8 today. According to a report in a Swedish newspaper, Volvo and Ford have met recently to discuss a possible business combination and talks of a hook-up are reportedly "well on their way." Neither company is confirming that any talks have taken place, but given the "urge to merge" in the auto world following last month's creation of DaimlerChrysler <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DCX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DCX)") end if %>, Volvo's small, single-nameplate car operation and well-regarded truck unit make the company an attractive target for a big acquirer worried about too much product overlap. That the company's shares are trading 38% below July's high price of $35 1/4 per share doesn't hurt either. Fellow small European carmaker Fiat S.p.A. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FIA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FIA)") end if %>, which is also rumored to be ripe for a takeover, motored $1 higher to $16 1/2.
QUICK TAKES: Online data broadcasting firm WavePhore Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WAVO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WAVO)") end if %> surfed $1 15/16 higher to $10 1/16 after expanding the content on its WaveTop PC data broadcast service to include a "virtual movie theater" in conjunction with Time Warner <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TWX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TWX)") end if %> and video and news from Fox News Online and Fox Sports Online from News America Digital Publishing... Specialty retailer Sharper Image Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SHRP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SHRP)") end if %> moved up $2 3/8 to $15 1/4 after saying sales from its sharperimage.com website are up 492% month-to-date in December, following a 436% sales jump in November... Online entertainment-related products retailer Big Entertainment <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BIGE)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BIGE)") end if %> gained $1 5/16 to $13 1/16 on the news its online movie merchandise store will be promoted by streaming media aggregator Broadcast.com <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BCST)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BCST)") end if %> through banner ads and buttons on Broadcast's website.
TV and radio network and stations operator CBS Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CBS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CBS)") end if %> moved up $1 3/8 to $30 9/16 as the company appointed Orion Safety Product Chairman and CEO David McLaughlin as its new non-executive chairman. Also, Merrill Lynch reiterated its near-term "buy" rating on the stock... Chip giant Intel Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %> gained $5 15/16 to $125 after Merrill Lynch analyst Tom Kurlak raised his intermediate and long-term opinions on the company to "accumulate" from "neutral" and boosted his fiscal 1999 EPS estimate to $4.25 from $3.60... Database software giant Oracle Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ORCL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ORCL)") end if %> tacked on $1 3/4 to $41 11/16 as Reuters reported that CEO Larry Ellison said the company's future looks "very good," adding that its client list includes the world's 10 largest e-commerce websites.
Integrated oil and gas company Amoco <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AN)") end if %> picked up $3 to $59 5/8 on positive vibes that the Federal Trade Commission will approve the firm's proposed merger with British Petroleum <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BP)") end if %> soon, possibly next week. BP rose $3 7/8 to $92 1/8... Respiratory pharmaceutical products developer Dura Pharmaceuticals <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DURA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DURA)") end if %> rose $2 to $13 1/2 after saying it has obtained the exclusive U.S. distribution rights to the intravenous antibiotics Maxipime and Azactam from Bristol-Myers Squibb <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BMY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BMY)") end if %> for an initial payment of $60 million, a $70 million payment four years from now, and additional unspecified contingent payments... Internet-related publisher and trade show operator Ziff-Davis <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ZD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ZD)") end if %> zipped $2 11/16 higher to $15 15/16 after announcing late yesterday that it has filed a registration statement with the SEC to issue tracking shares for its ZDNet Internet unit.
Auto parts retailer Pep Boys-Manny, Moe & Jack <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PBY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PBY)") end if %> picked up $1 11/16 to $15 3/16 after announcing a Dutch Auction to repurchase up to 10 million of its outstanding shares at a price ranging from $13.50 to $16 per share... Facility and janitorial services roll-up firm Building One Services Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BOSS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BOSS)") end if %> rose $3 9/16 to $20 1/16 after agreeing to merge with an affiliate of privately held investment firm Apollo Management L.P., whereby 34.5 million of Building One's 44.2 million outstanding shares will be purchased at a price of $25 per share in cash... Online music retailer CDNow <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CDNW)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CDNW)") end if %> spun $5 1/2 higher to $26 1/4 after online news service ZD Net reported that the company has held talks with media concern Time Warner <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TWX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TWX)") end if %> about a potential investment.
PC and computing products maker Apple Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AAPL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AAPL)") end if %> added another $1 13/16 to $39 13/16 after PC Data said yesterday that Apple's iMac was the top-selling personal computer in stores and through mail-order catalogs last month and for the 3 1/2 months since its product launch in August... Several companies rose today on word that they will be added to the Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 index. Concord EFS <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CEFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CEFT)") end if %> gained $1 11/16 to $39 1/8, Legato Systems <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LGTO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LGTO)") end if %> added $3 3/4 to $59 7/8, Apollo Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: APOL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: APOL)") end if %> climbed $1 15/16 to $25 3/8, Gulfstream Aerospace <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GAC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GAC)") end if %> advanced $1 11/16 to $51 11/16, Convergys <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CVG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CVG)") end if %> moved up $1 1/2 to $21 3/8, and Everest Reinsurance Holdings <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: RE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: RE)") end if %> rose $1 7/16 to $36 1/16.
Balance Bar Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BBAR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BBAR)") end if %> rose $2 7/16 to $10 3/4 after Hambrecht & Quist upgraded the maker of nutritional foods and beverages to "strong buy" from "buy"... International insurer and reinsurer ACE Ltd. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ACL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ACL)") end if %> gained $2 7/8 to $31 13/16 after rising 5% yesterday following confirmation by the company that it is discussing the possible acquisition of Cigna's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CI)") end if %> property and casualty business... Satellite-based mobile telecommunications services firm Iridium <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IRIDF)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IRIDF)") end if %> climbed $3 7/8 to $44 on news that the company has secured $1.55 billion in additional bank financing, which the company feels should be enough to sustain its needs until it becomes cash-flow positive at some undetermined date in the future... Cancer treatment developer Theragenics Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TGX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TGX)") end if %> tacked on $1 7/16 to $16 9/16 after PaineWebber started coverage of the company with an "attractive" rating and a 6- to 12-month price target of $18 per share.
Credit reporting firm Equifax Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EFX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EFX)") end if %> lost $9 1/2 to $34 1/2 today after it said a range of problems at its European operations are expected to drag Q4 earnings a dime below analysts' estimates. Equifax said incorrectly projected revenues from long-term marketing contracts, higher bad check losses, and softening in the U.K. economy are expected to pull Q4 EPS to about $0.31 when the company reports results Jan. 21. "We are confident that the causes of the shortfall are isolated to our European operations," the company said in a statement, citing "decisive" steps -- including a management shakeup, a review of forecasting, and a heightened focus on check risk controls -- it hopes will help stop the bleeding overseas. The rest of the company is showing growth over last year's levels, according to CEO Thomas Chapman. "We approach 1999 with caution given the challenging global economies as well as the anticipated Year 2000 diversion in the marketplace,'' he said.
As many children -- and likely, many adults as well -- know, having your heart set on something and not getting it, especially around the holidays, can be a harrowing experience. That was hammered home for the second straight day today, as software and information technology company Systems & Computer Technology <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SCTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SCTC)") end if %> lost $3 13/16 to $12 3/16 after it said fiscal first-quarter (ending Dec. 31) earnings may take a hit because it is isn't sure whether it will get a "significant" software order it had expected worth an estimated $0.06 or $0.07 per share. Five analysts surveyed by First Call currently expect EPS of $0.20 per share for the period. Yesterday, information technology consulting firm Atlantic Data Services <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADSC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADSC)") end if %> took a big hit on news that a key customer will cancel its order at year's end.
[Correction: In yesterday's Goat on Atlantic Data Services <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADSC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADSC)") end if %>, we incorrectly wrote that at least four brokerages had downgraded the stock. In fact, only two brokerages had downgraded the shares. We apologize for the error.]
QUICK CUTS: Onetime Dow Jones Industrial Average component and Foot Locker parent Venator Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: Z)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: Z)") end if %> was dunked for a $3/4 loss to $6 1/16 as the company formerly known as Woolworth will be replaced on the S&P 500 Index by America Online <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") end if %>... Supply chain software maker Manugistics <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MANU)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MANU)") end if %> stumbled $9/16 to $12 1/2 this morning after releasing earnings that fell short of expectations. Warren Gump took a longer look in today's Lunchtime News... Aerospace and defense contractor Lockheed Martin <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LMT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LMT)") end if %> dove $10 1/2 to $84 1/2 after it said Q4 EPS is expected to come in about 10% below the year-ago $1.79 figure. The projected $1.61 a share mark would be significantly below Wall Street's current expectation of $2.06. Digital networking services company COMSAT Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CQ)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CQ)") end if %>, which Lockheed is courting, lost $2 7/16 to $35 5/8 in apparent sympathy.
Biotechnology firm Biogen Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BGEN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BGEN)") end if %> lost $7 1/16 to $79 13/16 after President, CEO, and board member James Tobin resigned for "personal reasons." Chairman James Vincent moves into Tobin's spots... The world's largest PC distributor, Ingram Micro <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IM)") end if %> crumbled $3 1/16 to $33 15/16 following last night's after-the-bell warning that it expects Q4 EPS of $0.48 to $0.50, short of analysts' expectations of $0.56, due to lower-than-expected computer sales... Technology management services company InaCom Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ICO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ICO)") end if %> slid $3 3/4 to $15 3/8 on last night's news that a decline in vendor incentives is expected to hurt Q4 EPS, dragging it to between $0.50 and $0.55, well off the market's current $0.71 consensus estimate. Meanwhile, MicroAge <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MICA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MICA)") end if %> lost $2 1/8 to $14 7/8 and Vanstar Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: VST)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: VST)") end if %>, in a pact to merge with InaCom, shed $2 to $9 1/8.
Technology products distributor Tech Data <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TECD)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TECD)") end if %>, likely feeling the bite on InaCom and Ingram Micro, fell $6 9/16 to $34 15/16 today. Deutsche Bank Securities cut its rating on the stock to "hold" from "buy" today... Online retailer Cyberian Outpost <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: COOL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: COOL)") end if %> lost $4 1/8 to $33 1/8 following last night's news of a Q3 loss of $0.34 per share, a nickel better than Wall Street expected but missing last year's $0.12 loss badly... Point-of-sale processing service provider Transaction Network Services <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TNSI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TNSI)") end if %> fell $2 1/4 to $16 1/8 after it said the transition of customers to the transaction access service system acquired from AT&T <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: T)") end if %> in September, among other factors, will hurt earnings. The company doesn't expect to report EPS of more than $0.10 in Q4, well off First Call's four-analyst estimate of $0.31 a share... Tape storage systems provider Exabyte <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EXBT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EXBT)") end if %> fell $11/16 to $5 13/16 after it forecast a Q4 loss of between $0.18 and $0.24 per share, well off the three-analyst estimate from First Call of an $0.04 per share profit.
Commercial metalworking heat treating firm Lindberg Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LIND)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LIND)") end if %> melted $1 3/8 to $8 7/8 after it said Q4 EPS will likely fall between 20% and 25% below Q3's $0.41 figure. Two analysts polled by First Call currently have an $0.44 a share estimate; the company's guidance points toward something in the $0.33 to $0.35 range... Mutual fund company Franklin Resources <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BEN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BEN)") end if %> was shocked for a $4 13/16 loss to $38 1/8 after the company said it anticipates fiscal Q1 net earnings to come in below analysts' $0.44 per share consensus expectations... Critical and cardiac care devices maker Arrow International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ARRO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ARRO)") end if %> was shot down $1 3/8 to $28 3/8 on yesterday's news of fiscal Q1 EPS of $0.44, flat with last year's numbers and Street estimates... Specialty metals distributor A.M. Castle <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: CAS)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: CAS)") end if %> fell $1 5/16 to $15 15/16 after the company said it expects Q4 EPS of between $0.05 and $0.08, well off the $0.29 consensus estimate of six analysts surveyed by First Call.
FOOL
ON THE HILL
An Investment Opinion
by
Louis Corrigan
Accounting for a Year's Worth of Commentary
Part of what I love about the Motley Fool is that we do our best to hold ourselves accountable to you, our customers and fellow community members. You see that most clearly in the way the managers of our real-money portfolios publicly announce their trades before they occur and then track the performance numbers on a daily basis. To my knowledge, the Fool is still the only place on the planet where you'll see that kind of before-the-fact, now-and-forever disclosure.
You see our accountability efforts elsewhere, too, though perhaps in smaller ways. The Daily Double and Daily Trouble features include regularly updated performance tracking tables. Dueling Fools includes a "Flashback" section where we take a look at who's winning the Duel and who needs more lessons from the musketeers. Clearly, we've got more work to do, but we're out there trying every day.
I raise the issue because there's still too little accountability in the mainstream financial media. Recall that a number of major magazines ran some pretty scary cover stories during the August through October period when investors were told the sky might be falling. How many of these Chicken Littles said that "this time is different," that the market wouldn't recover quickly? How many talked about a return to "average" price-to-earnings ratios that would leave the Dow about 40% below where it is now? Well, I'm not naming names just yet. I'm going to wait until the new year to see if these guys explain to us why they got it wrong. I'm not holding my breath, but a Fool should remain hopeful, especially around Christmas.
Today, I want to confess some of my own sins as well as tout my successes. Given that I've covered at least 200 different companies in the past year, you'll be happy to know I'm offering only selected highlights.
First, I'll point out a success so you don't think I'm a complete idiot. On August 5, with the Dow around 8550 and in the early stages of the correction, I said I didn't think we would see a prolonged bear market "with inflation and interest rates edging ever lower -- or with an entire generation pumping their retirement money into the stock market like never before." I said a "10% or even greater drop in the major large cap players would seem to be literally a correction," something good for the markets. I concluded, "Personally, I think most long-term investors should be cheered by the recent market jitters and perhaps should even hope we see another leg down." Man, talk about earning your Fool's hat! In the face of fear, I was cheering for more. Ralph Acampora to the contrary, I remained sanguine.
Though the Fool doesn't offer actual stock recommendations (see our attorneys!), some features offer very clear opinions. My obvious failures this year have come in these most embarrassing spots.
Almost as soon as I said that enterprise software company DataWorks <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DWRX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DWRX)") end if %> was worth buying at $20 a share, it fell below $10 and never looked back. As I've written in a Daily Trouble, this was a case of paying too much attention to management without having enough independent visibility into the industry's dynamics. All the enterprise software companies have taken hits this year due to slowing growth. Still, the simple truth is that you're always going to know more about a company that you do business with than one that you don't. Ironically, my reference in the DataWorks article, to the Gap <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GPS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GPS)") end if %>, and to Peter Lynch's story about folks who always look for the most complicated investment idea, meant that at some level I knew the mistake I was making. Shame on me.
Semiconductor capital equipment maker Cymer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CYMI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CYMI)") end if %> partly fits the same bill. How much can the average investor understand about a company in this business? I had been impressed by Cymer's position as the key supplier of an important laser used in making chips, by the company's forthright management team, and by its commitment to invest in the business even in a down period. But cyclicals are tough. One's always tempted to call a bottom before it's reached. I still believe my security selection was okay, but my timing was bad given that Asia's slowdown was a problem that wasn't going away in the near term. Assuming that investing in a complicated cyclical business makes any sense at all, I now think you simply must play hard to get. Name the lowest price you think the stock could possibly fall to, and then don't even think about buying it until it's at least 25% below that price.
My more recent suggestion to short K-tel <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: KTEL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: KTEL)") end if %>, although a reprise of a smart call I made earlier in the year, would have been my most disastrous except that I'm quite sure the stock has been unborrowable since I wrote about it. As I warned in the article, that's one reason why it was not a great idea for a short-sell to begin with. Even if K-tel can manage to raise some money by issuing more stock, I'm still convinced the company is a classic Internet tulip that will eventually wilt. Yet, unlike some other tulips, K-tel the stock has a strong consumer appeal plus a small enough float to produce occasional flights of speculative fancy. Shorting the Internet wannabes has been dangerous and best undertaken, if at all, only after a spike. With the holiday Internet mania approaching, my timing on this one couldn't have been worse. Again, I should have known, and did know, better. Still, it's a good lesson in why you shouldn't short a stock just because you think it's overvalued.
I have had some public successes. I rightly argued that the market was undervaluing Intel <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %> last spring at $75. I warned that even after Sunbeam's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SOC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SOC)") end if %> plunge to $24 5/8, investors should wait to see what other bad news developed. And boy, did it! I was right about Amazon.com <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMZN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMZN)") end if %>, at least until it reached $140 and I thought it was just too expensive to keep. I was right about Pfizer's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") end if %> Viagra being overhyped. I was right about Apple's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AAPL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AAPL)") end if %> turnaround being for real and about IBM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IBM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IBM)") end if %> being a bargain despite its lame revenue growth. Plus, I correctly figured Novell's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NOVL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NOVL)") end if %> new NetWare would be good for its stock and that the apparently expensive Home Depot <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HD)") end if %> still offered value. I was also rightly skeptical about General Magic <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GMGC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GMGC)") end if %>. Still, I was wrong about Coca-Cola's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: KO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: KO)") end if %> ability to weather all storms and wrong about at least the market's reaction to the major changes afoot at Compaq <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CPQ)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CPQ)") end if %>.
That's a partial accounting. I'd love to be able to compare the stocks I write about to the S&P 500 to really quantify how I did, but that just doesn't make sense. Most of my articles, like others throughout the Fool, provide just an overview of a company with some take about what might happen in the future or what an interested investor might look for. They offer merely opinions as starting points rather than opinions as recommendations. Yet, as always, if you want to know what I think I missed about a particular stock, I'd be happy to talk about it.
We all want to enjoy investing, but part of that involves getting better at it. That requires that we face up to our failures as squarely as possible. We only do that by periodically examining how we're doing, not just in our actual portfolios but also in our more varied analyses of particular stocks or industries. That's why a year-end accounting seems like a pretty Foolish exercise. If you want to dissect your own failures over the last year, join us on the My Dumbest Investment message board.
Please see the Motley Fool's Conference Calls page for call information and links to synopses.
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Contributing Writers Yi-Hsin Chang (TMF Puck), a Fool Brian Graney (TMF Panic), another Fool David Marino-Nachison (TMF Braden), a new Fool
Editing |