DJIA 7842.62 -237.90 (-2.94%) S&P 500 1017.05 -31.97 (-3.05%) Nasdaq 1693.84 -40.21 (-2.32%) Value Line ndx 785.43 -13.67 (-1.71%) 30-Year Bond 108 9/30 +2 3/32 4.96% Yield
Electronic medical and scientific information services firm Ovid Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: OVID)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: OVID)") end if %> authored a $4 1/8 gain to $24 1/8 after agreeing to be acquired by a subsidiary of Dutch business and scientific publisher Wolters Kluwer N.V. for $24.59 per share, or about $200 million in cash. The purchase price represents a 19% premium to Ovid's closing price of $20 per share yesterday. In this case, it's Wolters Kluwer and not Ovid going through The Metamorphoses. The company's proposed mega-merger with Anglo-Dutch rival and Lexis-Nexis database Reed Elsevier ran into antitrust resistance from the powers-that-be on both sides of the Atlantic and was scuttled in March. Undeterred, earlier this year the company instead set its eyes on expanding into the U.S. and bought Stedman's Medical Dictionary publisher Waverly Inc. and scientific journal publisher Plenum Publishing Corp.
Diversified transportation firm CNF Transportation <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CNF)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CNF)") end if %> motored ahead $2 5/16 to $29 1/8 after the company said it will be "comfortably profitable" in fiscal Q3 and will report EPS in line with the First Call mean estimate of $0.74. That was enough to prompt an upgrade from Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette to "buy" from "market perform." The company added that there have been "no negative developments" to account for the recent slide in its share price, which has tumbled 25% since Sept. 16. That was the day fellow trucking firm J.B. Hunt Transport Services <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: JBHT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: JBHT)") end if %> warned that it would miss analysts' estimates for Q3 due to a reported slowdown in railroad service. While it is not clear whether that announcement played a part in CNF's recent slide, today's statement from CNF effectively illustrates the opposing financial performance interstates on which these two different transportation companies seem to be traveling.
QUICK TAKES: It was payday for Paychex <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PAYX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PAYX)") end if %>, which rose $5 5/16 to $51 9/16 after the provider of accounting and employment services to business was selected to replace Dresser Industries <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DI)") end if %> in the S&P MidCap 500 index starting today. Dresser closed its merger with Halliburton <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HAL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HAL)") end if %> yesterday... Annuity and life reinsurance underwriter Annuity and Life Re Ltd. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ALREF)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ALREF)") end if %> gained $1 7/8 to $19 3/4 after announcing it has completed a "significant" annuity transaction with an unspecified U.S. insurer. Prudential Securities reiterated its "strong buy" rating on the stock... Interactive education software company CBT Group PLC <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CBTSY)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CBTSY)") end if %> bounced back $2 9/16 to $13 1/2 after warning on Monday that its fiscal Q3 results will come in below analysts' estimates. In the previous two trading days, the company's share price had declined a total of 63%.
TV and radio network operator CBS Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CBS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CBS)") end if %> eyed a $1 gain to $24 1/4 after Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette raised its rating on the company to "top pick" from "buy." Yesterday, the Tiffany network fell nearly 10% on worries that its advertising revenues may slow in the second half of the year... Casual clothing designer Nautica Enterprises <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NAUT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NAUT)") end if %> added $1 3/16 to $18 11/16 after Morgan Stanley Dean Witter started coverage with an "outperform" rating and a $30 per share price target, based on the company's future growth prospects... Home healthcare medical products manufacturer Sunrise Medical <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SMD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SMD)") end if %> burst $2 1/8 higher to $10 courtesy of a PaineWebber upgrade to "buy" from "neutral"... Philadelphia-based electric and natural gas utility PECO Energy Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PE)") end if %> charged ahead $2 1/8 to $36 3/4 after Merrill Lynch raised its near-term rating on the firm to "buy" from "accumulate."
Data warehousing and automated transaction processing firm NCR Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NCR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NCR)") end if %> rang up $2 3/16 to $28 3/4 after buying the Decision Support Services Group business software unit of Medaphis Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MEDA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MEDA)") end if %> for an undisclosed sum... Industrial buildings and retail centers operator AMB Property Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AMB)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AMB)") end if %> picked up $1 9/16 to $25 13/16 after saying it closed five property acquisitions during the third quarter with a total value of $258.9 million... Electronic healthcare transcription and document management systems firm MedQuist Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MEDQ)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MEDQ)") end if %> gained $1 9/16 to $25 13/16 on news it will be added to the S&P SmallCap 600 index after the close today in place of Acme Metals <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AMI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AMI)") end if %>, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection... Gold exploration and mining company Getchell Gold Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: GGO)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: GGO)") end if %> shined $1 15/16 higher to $21 1/16 after Credit Suisse First Boston started coverage with a "buy" rating.
For the second quarter in a row, RJR Nabisco Holdings <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: RN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: RN)") end if %> is getting smoked by the economic meltdown in Russia and the other former Soviet states. Today, the No. 2 tobacco company fell $1 9/16 to $25 3/16. As the Fool reported in this morning's Breakfast With the Fool, RJR announced after the close of trading yesterday that it expects third quarter per-share earnings of $0.46 to $0.48, well below the First Call mean estimate of $0.60 and last year's $0.75. Tight credit, the devaluation of the ruble, and a slow economy led RJR to temporarily halt cigarette production in Russia and instead import higher-priced Western brands. Further, while RJR's revenues and earnings are suffering in Yeltsinland, the company also will have to pay a higher corporate tax rate for the rest of 1998. Last year, Russia accounted for about 11% of RJR's international tobacco earnings. The company added that its U.S. tobacco business and its 80.5%-owned Nabisco <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NA)") end if %> food business are performing "in line with expectations for the quarter and the year."
Major retailers went on sale today as consumer confidence fell for a third consecutive month, adding to existing concerns that sales are slowing as Americans are spending less. The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence dropped seven points in September to 126 points, down 12.2 points from its 29-year high in June. Discount and department stores already have seen slower-than-expected sales during the typically active back-to-school season. Today discount retailing behemoth Wal-Mart Stores <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") end if %> fell $3 1/2 to $54 5/8 in heavy trading, while competitor Target stores parent Dayton Hudson <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DH)") end if %> dropped $2 to $35 3/4. Wholesale club Costco Companies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: COST)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: COST)") end if %> -- rival to Wal-Mart's Sam's Club -- lost $1 1/8 to $47 3/8. Consumer electronics superstore Best Buy <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BBY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BBY)") end if %> became a better buy today, falling $3 7/16 to $41 5/8, as rival Circuit City Stores <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CC)") end if %> tumbled $1 7/16 to $33 5/16. Home-improvement specialist Home Depot <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HD)") end if %> was pounded for a $1 7/8 loss to $39 1/2, while competitor Lowe's Companies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LOW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LOW)") end if %> was cut $3/4 to $31 13/16. Department store operator J.C. Penny <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: JCP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: JCP)") end if %> shed $1 1/4 to $44 15/16.
Telecommunications equipment makers were disconnected today on worries about revenue growth after Northern Telecom <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NT)") end if %> reportedly told analysts yesterday that revenue in the second half will be below expectations due to slack demand in Europe and Asia, though earnings should be in line with estimates. The revenue warning mirrors the announcement earlier this month by French competitor Alcatel SA <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ALA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ALA)") end if %>, which said that its fiscal 1998 operating results will "not meet expectations" due to the financial crisis in Asia and Russia and "sharp investment cuts" by some of its clients. Today at least four securities firms, including Lehman Brothers, lowered their ratings on Nortel, causing its shares to drop $3 5/8 to $32 1/4. Lucent Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LU)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LU)") end if %> also lost $5 1/4 to $69 1/4 as BT Alex. Brown downgraded the company to "market perform" from "buy." Voice and data transport systems maker Tellabs <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TLAB)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TLAB)") end if %> plunged $4 13/16 to $39 13/16 as BT Alex. Brown lowered its rating on the company to "market perform" from "buy." Motorola <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MOT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MOT)") end if %> slipped $1 11/16 to $42 7/8; Newbridge Networks <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NN)") end if %> was nipped $1 9/16 to $17 15/16; ADC Telecommunications <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADCT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADCT)") end if %> tumbled $2 5/8 to $21 1/8; and Pairgain Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PAIR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PAIR)") end if %> plummeted $1 15/17 to $8 1/8.
QUICK CUTS: Banks retreated today in the wake of the Fed's quarter percentage point interest rate cut -- some optimists had been expecting a cut of 50 basis points. BankAmerica <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BAC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BAC)") end if %> dropped $2 1/8 to $60 1/8; soon-to-be-part-of-BankAmerica NationsBank <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NB)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NB)") end if %> slipped $2 1/16 to $53 1/2; Citicorp <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CCI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CCI)") end if %> fell $4 3/4 to $93; Citicorp merger partner Travelers Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TRV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TRV)") end if %> lost $1 11/16 to $37 1/2; Bankers Trust (NSYE: BT) slid $1 13/16 to $59; Merrill Lynch <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MER)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MER)") end if %> took a hit of $2 15/16 to $47 3/16; Lehman Brothers (NSYE: LEH) tumbled $1 3/8 to $28 3/8; Morgan Stanley Dean Witter <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MWD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MWD)") end if %> declined $2 to $43 1/8; Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DLJ)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DLJ)") end if %> pulled back $1 5/16 to $25 9/16; First Union <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FTU)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FTU)") end if %> shed $1 13/16 to $51 3/16; and Chase Manhattan <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CMB)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CMB)") end if %> fell $1 5/8 to $43 3/8.
General Motors <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") end if %> skidded $3 1/8 to $54 7/8 after the president of its Delphi auto-parts unit said the automaker could delay or cancel plans to spin off part of Delphi if demand for initial public offerings remains weak. Rival Ford Motor Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: F)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: F)") end if %>, which is also considering a spin-off of its auto-parts unit, Visteon, fell $2 1/8 to $47... America Online <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") end if %> got kicked off, losing $5 3/4 to $111 5/8 after Goldman Sachs sold 1 million shares of the online services company at $114 on behalf of an unnamed client... Oil services company Schlumberger Ltd. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SLB)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SLB)") end if %> shed $1 5/8 to $50 7/8 after saying it cut about 700 jobs, or 1% of its workforce, in June and July, and will trim more staff as falling oil prices reduce demand for its services and products.
Oil company Atlantic Richfield <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ARC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ARC)") end if %> fell $3 1/16 to $70 15/16 as the company announced that two top executives, its president and executive vice president, are retiring... American Airlines AMR Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AMR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AMR)") end if %> was grounded for a $3 5/8 loss to $55 7/16 as Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette downgraded the airline to "market perform" from "buy"... High-end jewelry and gifts retailer Tiffany & Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TIF)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TIF)") end if %> fell $2 1/16 to $31 3/8 as Salomon Smith Barney lowered its earnings estimates through the year 2000, saying that tourists are spending less and margins are being squeezed by price increases on selected diamonds.
Outpatient healthcare services company HealthSouth Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HRC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HRC)") end if %> got sick today, sinking $4 1/8, or 28.2%, to $10 1/2 as several analysts cut its ratings and as the company said it is "evaluating the potential impact of increased pricing pressure from managed care payors" on its results for the rest of 1998 and 1999... Advanced Lighting Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADLT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADLT)") end if %> plunged $2 7/8 to $8 1/2 as Raymond James cut its rating on the lighting products designer and manufacturer to "accumulate" from "buy"... Contract proposal management company SM&A Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WINS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WINS)") end if %> plummeted $7 5/8, or 30.7%, to $17 1/4 after announcing it expects Q3 EPS of $0.16, in line with estimates, but that revenue will fall short of internal expectations by about $3.5 million.
FOOL
ON THE HILL
An Investment Opinion
by
Louis Corrigan
Long-Term Capital: Playing the Hand vs. Playing the Man
I want to play a slightly more abstract riff off Dale's excellent column yesterday on the Long-Term Capital hedge fund to get at what seems to me the fund's most basic mistake: misconstruing the nature of markets. But first, let's review the salient facts of the story as we know them.
First, Long-Term Capital was trading based on quantitative models designed by Robert Merton and Myron Scholes, recent winners of the Nobel prize in economics for an options pricing model that, among other things, helps translate a company's employee stock options into fully diluted shares. This quant approach takes years of historical data about how certain markets interact and pops out supposedly no-lose arbitrage plays where one takes advantage of pricing disparities between different investment instruments believed to have a predictable relationship to one another. Rather than making informed directional bets on how real-world economic and political events will play out, Long-Term Capital was generally making "market-neutral" bets based on algorithms that calculated probabilities and assumed equilibrium as the norm.
Second, as Dale noted, Long-Term produced woefully sorry results even in its best years considering that its extraordinary leverage should have made returns of 100% or more relatively easy to achieve. This year, investors have lost at least 90% of the money that remained in the fund and probably a lot more because many borrowed to raise their original investment equity and, more important, the fund was, in a fundamental way, insolvent prior to the "bailout."
Third, the 15 financial institutions that pumped $3.5 billion into Long-Term ultimately were not bailing out the fund -- they were bailing out themselves. If the fund's positions were summarily unwound, Long-Term would have less than nothing. That means that the various high-net-worth individuals who invested in the firm, including the Merrill Lynch executives who put in $20 million of their own money ($800,000 from Chair/CEO David Komansky alone), would walk away with nada. What's worse, the institutions that loaned Long-Term the money to make the highly leveraged bets would also take a hit. What's still worse is that Long-Term's selling, if done in a disorderly fashion, would create additional asset devaluations that would produce further shockwaves as others with leveraged positions got margin calls and the institutions that loaned them money also faced serious losses.
The Federal Reserve's concern for Long-Term Capital was simply a recognition that it presented a potentially massive systemic threat since its failure could lead to a virtual death-spiral of margin calls and liquidations. The Fed's involvement also suggests that Chairman Alan Greenspan was mistaken in believing that the largely unregulated hedge fund industry can be effectively controlled by regulating creditors. As we've seen time and again, creditors can be just as prone to greed as the latest wizard of Wall Street, but they're often the last to understand the risks that would ordinarily help fear counterbalance greed.
As Dale points out, Long-Term invested without an adequate appreciation of the specific risks it was accepting. How could anyone think it was reasonable to assume that historical market data was applicable to what proved an illiquid market for Russian debt? How can one adequately model for a complex array of factors that may each depart ever so slightly from what's considered statistically probable?
Ultimately, Long-Term's failure resulted from a misunderstanding of the basic nature of financial markets. Speculator George Soros, who pocketed a fortune making exactly the kinds of directional bets that Long-Term eschewed, insists that quantitative methods don't work because they are based on the erroneous belief that markets are always efficient. "I think that those methods work 99 percent of the time, but they break down 1 percent of the time," he said in Soros on Soros. "I am more concerned with that 1 percent. I see a certain systemic risk that cannot be encapsulated in those assumptions that generally assume a continuous market."
Markets embody two quite different characteristics. On the one hand, they experience long periods of apparent equilibrium whereby market participants appear to be processing fundamental information almost immediately and efficiently so that relationships seem predictable. On the other hand, markets experience boom/bust cycles, or extremes of disequilibrium, where the action seems irrational. Which state better defines the basic nature of markets? Ultimately, the latter, and that means that one should approach the market with a recognition of its capacity for discontinuity and fragility.
Soros comes to these views from a broader theory about the flawed nature of human understanding. We cannot ever see the world in itself but only through our interaction and participation in it. Indeed, markets don't really exist in themselves but only via our collective self-reflexive perception and repeated re-creation of them. In effect, disequilibrium enters a market not from the outside but from the imperfect understanding of the market's participants. Ironically, the very idea that equilibrium is the norm is itself part of what creates disequilibrium. Long-Term's reliance on probabilities offers shockingly direct support for Soros's theory. In effect, approaching a complex, adaptive system with methods analogous to Newtonian physics amounts to playing the game without understanding the rules. In other words, investors must have a proper respect for the market's fundamental instability in order to properly avoid or address specific risks.
A great example of this comes from the recent film Rounders, which is about poker players. The movie divides the game's risks into playing the hand (a matter of probabilities) and playing the man (a matter of intuition or judgment). The character played by John Turturro is said to be a "grinder." He doesn't aspire to the glory of the big score; he just wants to make a decent and consistent living playing cards. This is an admirable, profitable, though unspectacular approach that depends foremost on limiting one's opportunities for losing by avoiding games featuring superior players and always playing the probability of the cards. In a sense, Turturro begins by controlling the larger risks posed by the man and concentrates on playing the hand, folding when the cards are bad while raising his bets when the cards are good.
The narrative focuses on a character played by Matt Damon who is friendly with Turturro but aspires to greater glory and so must undergo some painful lessons in what the highest level of poker requires. Early on, Damon enters what is the film's equivalent of the Russian market and makes a huge bet based on the probabilities. But the probabilities fail him, as his Russian opponent's two aces beat his two kings. He's wiped out.
Success at this level requires that one play the man, since one's opponent is the greatest variable in the game. At one point, Damon says he could even play a hand blind, with no knowledge of the cards themselves. The cards, of course, aren't immaterial, and Damon learns when to cut his losses. But his principal challenge is to bring his judgment to bear in the way of a Soros, not just on the cards but on variables of the system that make it much more than a game of luck or even probability.
Extrapolating from poker to investing may be a stretch, but I think the Turturro character is analogous to a Foolish investor selecting an S&P index fund or a Dow Four approach. His greatest strength is recognizing his limitations and finding the most sensible and prosperous way to grind out a living considering those limitations. He misses the glory of the big score, but he still gets to hang out at the Turkish bath.
Damon's character lives in the world of more active portfolio management, which requires greater savvy because it entails greater risks. Probability is not ignored in this world, but it must always take a back seat to interpretation and judgment. In a sense, Long-Term Capital tried to apply a black box, grind-it-out approach based on probabilities to this world, where it confronted exactly the risks of disequilibrium it had begun by ignoring. In the visual language of Rounders, the managers at Long-Term simply didn't believe that something as ordinary and insignificant as a tray of Oreo cookies could have anything useful to tell them. Their fate was to watch their own cookies crumble.
Please see the Motley Fool's Conference Calls page for call information and links to synopses.
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Contributing Writers Yi-Hsin Chang (TMF Puck), a Fool Brian Graney (TMF Panic), Fool Two Alex Schay (TMF Nexus6), Fool, too Dale Wettlaufer (TMF Ralegh), Final Fool
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