<THE EVENING NEWS>
Tuesday, September 22, 1998
MARKET CLOSE
DJIA            7897.20    -36.05      (-0.45%) 
 S&P 500         1029.79     +5.90      (+0.58%) 
 Nasdaq          1697.80    +17.37      (+1.03%) 
 Value Line ndx   797.14     +6.22      (+0.79%) 
 30-Year Bond   105 3/32    -20/32  5.16% Yield 
 

HEROES

Shopping center real estate investment trust (REIT) Simon DeBartolo Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SPG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SPG)") end if %> advanced $2 1/4 to $29 3/4 after Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette analyst Larry Raiman raised his rating on the company to "top pick" from "buy." Raiman feels that a reported slowdown in real estate lending this summer is good news for the entire REIT sector, since it waylays overbuilding fears and will help keep property prices from rising through the stratosphere. Self-storage facility REIT Public Storage <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PSA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PSA)") end if %>, which also got an upgrade from DLJ today, added $2 1/4 to $27 1/2. Among other REITs, Equity Residential Properties Trust <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EQR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EQR)") end if %> rose $3 5/16 to $43 1/2, Vornado Realty Trust <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: VNO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: VNO)") end if %> gained $2 5/8 to $36 3/8, Mack-Cali Realty <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CLI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CLI)") end if %> climbed $3 to $32 3/4, PS Business Parks <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: PSB)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: PSB)") end if %> tacked on $1 3/16 to $20 5/8, Storage USA <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SUS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SUS)") end if %> picked up $2 13/16 to $33 11/16, and Sovran Self Storage <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SSS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SSS)") end if %> moved up $1 3/16 to $25 1/16.

Managed healthcare provider Oxford Health Plans <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: OXHP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: OXHP)") end if %> moved up $11/16 to $11 15/16 following a Salomon Smith Barney upgrade to "outperform" from "neutral." In recent days, Oxford has been discussing its strategy for future profitability with analysts, who have reportedly been encouraged by the company's proposed turnaround plan and the fact that CEO Norman Payson decided last month to buy an additional two million Oxford shares. The insider buying shows that Payson, who took the helm at Oxford in May after selling his successful Healthsource HMO business to Cigna <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CI)") end if %> in 1997, believes in his plan to rid the company of its red ink by the third quarter of 1999. Oxford's shareholders are probably hoping he will continue his spending ways, considering the company's share price has gained 43% since Payson's most recent purchases were first made public in a federal filing on Sept. 10.

QUICK TAKES: Chip maker Advanced Micro Devices <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AMD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AMD)") end if %> rose $3/4 to $18 3/4 after announcing that it is shipping a microprocessor for laptop computers that operates at 300 megahertz, the same speed as rival Intel's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %> fastest laptop chip... Online streaming media aggregator and broadcaster Broadcast.com <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BCST)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BCST)") end if %> gained $6 5/8 to $50 7/8 after Morgan Stanley Dean Witter raised its rating on the firm to "outperform" from "neutral." The company said it had a "record day for simultaneous users" yesterday due to the release of President Bill Clinton's grand jury testimony... Internet portal company Infoseek Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SEEK)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SEEK)") end if %> climbed another $1 3/8 to $22 11/16 after Microsoft <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") end if %> selected the company as one of its "four premier search partners" for its network of Internet products and services.

Ciena Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CIEN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CIEN)") end if %> gained $4 9/16 to $15 9/16 after saying that it is shipping its Sentry 4000 dense wavelength division multiplexing system to Japan Telecom. Ciena's shares also benefited from takeover rumors, some of which mentioned Cisco Systems <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CSCO)") end if %> as a possible buyer... Networking and communication products maker Newbridge Networks Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NN)") end if %> rose $1 9/16 to $21 7/8 after winning a two-year, estimated $80 million supply contract from Telekom South Africa... Dutch electronics and semiconductor maker Philips Electronics N.V. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PHG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PHG)") end if %> bounced back $2 1/16 to $48 1/16 after falling almost 10% yesterday following its warning of a "significant decline" in fiscal Q3 earnings.

Speech recognition technologies developer Lernout & Hauspie Speech Products <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LHSPF)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LHSPF)") end if %> picked up $3 15/16 to $45 3/8 after Dow Jones reported that the company said sales of its electronic dictation products are rising in fiscal Q3 and that it wants to make more acquisitions before the year is out... Data warehousing and transaction processing company NCR Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NCR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NCR)") end if %> rang up a $1 15/16 gain to $27 5/8 after Salomon Smith Barney raised its rating on the firm to "buy" from "outperform"... Telecommunications network switching products maker Excel Switching Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: XLSW)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: XLSW)") end if %> moved up $1 1/2 to $18 7/8 after a unit of Motorola <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MOT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MOT)") end if %> said yesterday that it will use Excel's EXS product as a network interface unit for selected wireless local loop networks around the globe.

Parking lot operator Central Parking Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CPC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CPC)") end if %> put it in gear today, rising $2 3/4 to $48 7/8 after agreeing to acquire privately held parking services firm Allright Holdings for about $585 million in Central Parking shares and assumed debt... Crude oil transport, storage and trading firm EOTT Energy Partners L.P. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EOT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EOT)") end if %> was pumped up $2 13/16 to $14 1/2 after agreeing to buy about 3,900 miles of crude oil pipeline and contracts for about 220,000 lease barrels of crude oil per day from affiliates of privately held Koch Industries Inc... Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems maker York International Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: YRK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: YRK)") end if %> rose $1 3/8 to $33 3/4 after pre-announcing fiscal Q3 EPS between $0.83 and $0.88 per share, excluding a $0.27 per share one-time gain. The First Call mean estimate had called for EPS of $0.83 in the quarter.

Pillows and bedding products maker Pillowtex Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PTX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PTX)") end if %> was fluffed up $2 3/8 to $28 3/4 courtesy of a Prudential Securities upgrade to "strong buy" from "accumulate"... Automatic fire sprinkler components maker Central Sprinkler Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CNSP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CNSP)") end if %> spurted $1 3/4 higher to $10 3/4 after reporting fiscal Q3 EPS of $0.45 (excluding litigation charges), beating the $0.33 expected by the sole analyst surveyed by Zacks... Biotechnology firm Chiron Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CHIR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CHIR)") end if %> tacked on $2 3/8 to $21 following a Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette upgrade to "buy" from "market perform."

United Airlines parent UAL Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UAL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UAL)") end if %> ascended $2 to $70 1/4 after naming UAL executive James Goodwin as its new president and COO. Goodwin will replace John Edwardson, who resigned last Friday... Thrift holding company Laurel Capital Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LARL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LARL)") end if %> picked up $7/8 to $18 1/8 after announcing a plan to buy back up to 110,000 shares, or about 5% of its outstanding stock... Oil and gas exploration firm Clayton Williams Energy <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CWEI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CWEI)") end if %> was lifted $1 5/8 to $9 3/8 after saying it has received "encouraging" gas shows from a wildcat gas well in Texas... Ocwen Asset Investment Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: OAC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: OAC)") end if %>, which invests in underperforming real estate and mortgage-backed securities, gained $11/16 to $8 9/16 after setting a $10 million share repurchase plan.

GOATS

The world's largest packaging company, Crown Cork & Seal <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CCK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CCK)") end if %>, dropped $6 to $31 5/16 after saying it will cut 2,700 jobs, or 7% of its workforce, and warning that it expects Q3 EPS of $0.80 to $0.82, down from $0.90 a year ago and lower than analysts' mean estimate of $1.05. The maker of bottle crowns and closures and metal and plastic containers said earnings were hurt by weak food packaging business on the West Coast, "disruptions in normal trading patterns" in the U.K., and currency weakness in Mexico, Brazil, and Canada. But for the year, the company forecasts growth in EPS from continuing operations of 3% to 7% to $2.30 to $2.40 a share, up from $2.24 in 1997. Crown Cork will take a Q3 charge of $121 million for cost reduction measures, including the job cuts. The company says it expects to generate roughly $64 million in after-tax savings on an annualized basis after the measures have been fully implemented. Crown Cork also plans to buy back up to 10 million shares, or 7.5% of its total outstanding stock, on top of buying about 5% of its shares in a single transaction in March.

Oilfield services and oil equipment companies slid today on the back of two earnings warnings. Oil and gas pressure control equipment maker Cooper Cameron Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: RON)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: RON)") end if %> sank $5 to $29 1/4 after announcing that it expects flat Q3 EPS of about $0.70, short of analysts' expectations of $0.84, and fourth quarter EPS that will be $0.10 lower than last year's $0.83 and below current estimates of $0.93. Likewise, oilfield services provider BJ Services Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BJS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BJS)") end if %> dropped $1 1/16 to $17 5/8 after saying at the Dain Rauscher Wessels energy conference in Houston that it expects lower fiscal 1999 earnings and plans to eliminate 840 jobs due to lower demand for its services. Other stocks in the sector fell in sympathy: Smith International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SII)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SII)") end if %> lost $1 1/4 to $24 3/8, Halliburton <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HAL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HAL)") end if %> shed $1 1/8 to $30 1/2, Diamond Offshore Drilling <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DO)") end if %> dipped $1 5/16 to $25 7/16, and Dresser Industries <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DI)") end if %> slipped $1 3/16 to $29 7/8.

The world's largest publicly traded fertilizer company, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: POT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: POT)") end if %>, dropped $2 1/8 to $50 13/16 after the company warned that it expects Q3 EPS of $0.90 to $1.00, down from $1.33 last year and below analysts' expectations of $1.30. The Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada-based company blamed the shortfall on weakness in nitrogen markets. Although the company's potash and phosphate business segments remain strong, the gross margin for nitrogen for the quarter is expected to be down by more than $20 million from the same year-ago period. Interestingly, the company said the economic turbulence in Asia has had "little effect" on its fertilizer sales. For more on Potash Corp., click here.

QUICK CUTS: Coca-Cola <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: KO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: KO)") end if %> was canned for a $2 3/4 loss to $59 7/16 after Salomon Smith Barney lowered its EPS estimate to $1.54 from $1.60 for 1998 and to $1.68 from $1.85 for 1999, citing currency pressures and lower volume expectations. Salomon also cut the price target on the stock to $59 from $83... Chip maker Micron Technology <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MU)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MU)") end if %> finished down $2 5/16 to $29 11/16 after influential semiconductor analyst Tom Kurlak of Merrill Lynch said losses at the company are likely for another year... Hewlett-Packard <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HWP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HWP)") end if %>, maker of computing, Internet and intranet, communications, and measurement products, fell $1 3/16 to $50 11/16 after Standard & Poor's yesterday downgraded its outlook on the company to "negative" from "positive," citing "extremely competitive industry conditions and weakness in important international markets."

Rehabilitation and employee services company NovaCare Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NOV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NOV)") end if %> plummeted $3 3/4, or 48.4%, to $4 after warning that it expects fiscal Q1 earnings to be "as much as 50% below" the $0.16 a share it earned in the same prior-year period. Analysts were expecting EPS of $0.18... Fidelity Federal Bank parent Bank Plus Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BPLS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BPLS)") end if %> tanked $1 13/16 to $5 7/16 after announcing the resignation of its president and CEO, Richard Greenwood, who is leaving to pursue "interests in the future of electronic commerce." The company named CFO Mark Mason as interim CEO... Enterprise networking company Cabletron Systems <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CS)") end if %> fell $5/8 to $10 3/8 after reporting after the bell yesterday fiscal Q2 EPS of $0.09 compared with $0.36 in the same year-ago period and analysts' mean estimate of $0.08.

Manufacturing systems maker Unova Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: UNA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: UNA)") end if %> lost $2 7/16 to $16 1/2 after warning that it expects Q3 EPS of $0.23 to $0.26, short of analysts' mean estimate of $0.30, though it predicts Q4 could top current expectations... Auto care centers franchisor Precision Auto Care <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PACI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PACI)") end if %> tumbled another $5/8 to $5 3/8 after yesterday warning that it expects a fiscal Q4 pro forma combined net loss of $0.11 per share, compared with breakeven results for the same year-earlier period... Eastman Kodak <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EK)") end if %> fell $1 15/16 to $83 7/16 as Goldman Sachs downgraded its rating on the photography company to "market outperform" from "trading buy."

Electronic sensors and motion control devices maker BEI Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BEIQ)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BEIQ)") end if %> was cut $1 3/8 to $6 after saying it anticipates a possible loss from continuing operations for its fiscal Q4, compared with $0.17 a share in the year-earlier period and two analysts' estimates of $0.17 and $0.22, according to IBES... Analog communications components maker C.P. Clare Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CPCL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CPCL)") end if %> plunged $1 1/2 to $5 3/4 after saying it expects fiscal Q2 net sales of around $33.5 million, 10% lower than the $36.7 million in the previous quarter, and breakeven operating earnings before charges... Drug developer Hemispherx Biopharma <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: HEB)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: HEB)") end if %> dropped another $2 3/4 to $5 1/4 as short-seller Asensio & Co. released a research report on the company with a "strong sell" recommendation.

Off-price retailer Syms Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SYM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SYM)") end if %> slid $1 9/16 to $10 1/4 after yesterday reporting fiscal Q2 EPS of $0.07, down from $0.16 a year ago... Electric power company PacifiCorp <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PPW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PPW)") end if %> shed $1 3/8 to $18 7/8 after the Montana Public Service Commission yesterday said it was seeking a court order to block the company's plans to sell its Montana service territory to Flathead Electric Cooperative... Multimedia wiring products distributor Anicom Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ANIC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ANIC)") end if %> sank $2 1/2 to $7 3/4 after announcing it has acquired Canadian distribution specialist Texcan Cables for 1.4 million shares of common stock, preferred stock convertible into about 1.4 million additional shares of common stock, $27 million in cash, and $12 million in assumed debt... SDL Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SDLI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SDLI)") end if %> slid $2 5/8 to $14 3/8 as SoundView Financial cut its rating on the maker of semiconductor circuits, lasers, and fiber-optic-related products to "hold" from "buy" and lowered its EPS estimates to $0.60 from $0.70 for 1998 and to $1.10 from $1.15 for 1999.

Blood products and systems developer V.I. Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VITX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VITX)") end if %> was pummeled for a $4 3/4 loss to $7 1/8 after SG Cowen Securities cut its 1998 expectations to a loss of $0.53 from a loss of $0.50 and reduced its 1999 EPS estimate to income of $0.65 from $0.95... Clothing retailer Buckle Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BKE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BKE)") end if %> unbuckled for a $3 3/4 loss to $19 5/8 after Wheat First Union downgraded the company to "outperform" from "buy" on concern of weaker sales in September... DSP Communications <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DSP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DSP)") end if %> was disconnected for a $2 7/8 loss to $8 3/16 as Nationsbanc Montgomery Securities lowered its rating on the wireless communications chip maker to "hold" from "buy" on concerns about DSP's sales to a joint venture of Philips Electronics <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PHG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PHG)") end if %> and Lucent Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LU)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LU)") end if %>.

FOOL ON THE HILL
An Investment Opinion
by Dale Wettlaufer

Cash Flow Review, Part 3

In Part 1 and Part 2 of this series on free cash flow, we looked at the mechanics of assessing the free cash flow of Revlon in fiscal 1997. We looked at how the company's balance sheet, cash flow statement, and income statement interact and how to calculate free cash flow off that. However, free cash flow is colored by the financing decisions that a company makes. Theoretically, a company's value should not be affected by financing decisions, according to Miller & Modigliani (M&M) theory. Practically, the IRS and Congress pose some challenges to that theory, but its usefulness is gigantic to investors.

When we look at free cash flow, then, we have to make further adjustments than just looking at net income plus depreciation and amortization of purchased intangibles plus/minus working capital changes minus capital expenditures and acquisitions/divestitures. To get closer to the real value of the company, we want to look at how much cash it can generate before paying its investors, whether those investors are lenders or owners of equity (shares of common stock). Both require a certain rate of return, and equity holders usually require a higher rate of return because their return is often uncertain and because equity holders are last in line when it comes to liquidating or recapitalizing the company when it has declared bankruptcy.

To start with, we want to find out the entire value of the enterprise. And just as a sidenote, this is where mistakes are often made in looking at the value of a company. Just looking at EPS estimates and the share price distorts the value of a leveraged company. Just as a house with $100,000 left on the mortgage and $40,000 in equity value doesn't sell in the market for just the price of its equity value, a leveraged company's price isn't just comprised of its equity value.

Sure, one can decide on the value of an enterprise according to the cash return to equity and the price of equity, but in the end that can lead to bad decision-making and the destruction of equity value. Witness such episodes as the real estate bubbles in California in the last twenty years, the S&L crisis, and lending to emerging nations over the last thirty years. As we have pointed out -- possibly to the point of exhaustion -- the value of an enterprise depends on return on invested capital. So we don't just look at return on equity in most cases. We look at return to all investors.

In the case of Revlon, we have cash flow from operations of $6.9 million and negative free cash flow of ($101.5) million. We need to make a couple of adjustments to the elements of this free cash flow to arrive at a cash flow that is uncolored by the company's choices of financing the business. We can work back from the net income figure to get to the adjusted free cash flow, but again, this is a Ron Perelman company with lots of weird things below the operating income line. This includes the use of net operating loss carryforwards that the company uses to reduce its tax bill. So rather than working up from the net income line, we'll work down from the operating income line. In this way, we make the same adjustments that we would make going up the income statement -- unwinding the effects of interest expenses on taxes, scrubbing out extraordinary gains, and scrubbing out investment income when this is not a core part of the business.

In 1997, the company reported operating income of $213.3 million. Using a standard tax rate of 35%, after-tax operating income would be $138.6 million. Now we go back to the cash flow statement, adding back the numbers not in parentheses and subtracting the numbers in parentheses:

($ in millions)

After-tax operating income......$138.6 inflow plus 
 Depreciation and amortization...$103.8 inflow minus 
 Increase in trade receivables...($70.3) minus 
 Increase in inventories.........($21.4) plus 
 Decrease in prepaid expenses  
 and other current assets..........$2.3 plus 
 Increase in accounts payable.....$21.6 minus 
 Decrease in accrued expenses 
 and other current liabilities....($4.2) minus 
 Other, net......................($73.0) 
                                 ======= 
                                  $97.4 inflow
Less capital expenditures of $56.5 million, the company generated free cash flow from operations of $40.9 million. With total debt of $1.934 billion and a market cap of $1.624 billion and no excess cash, the company's enterprise value is $3.558 billion. As a multiple of operating free cash flow before financing decisions, that's 87 times. Not cheap. As a multiple of after-tax operating income, that's 25.7 times. That's more in line with the rest of the cosmetics industry. If one were to decide that 20 times after-tax operating income were more appropriate, then the enterprise value would be $2.772 billion. Taking the $1.934 billion in debt out, $838 million in equity value is left. With 52.597 million diluted shares, that's equity value of $15.93 per share, significantly less than the current quote of $30 7/8.

On a total free cash flow basis, the company is still free cash flow negative:

($ in millions)
After-tax operating income......$138.6 inflow plus 
 Depreciation and amortization...$103.8 inflow minus 
 Increase in trade receivables...($70.3) minus 
 Increase in inventories.........($21.4) plus 
 Decrease in prepaid expenses  
 and other current assets..........$2.3 plus 
 Increase in accounts payable.....$21.6 minus 
 Decrease in accrued expenses 
 and other current liabilities....($4.2) minus 
 Other, net......................($73.0) 
                                 ======= 
                                  $97.4 inflow minus 
  
 Net cash used for  
 investing activities............(108.4) outflow 
                                 ======= 
 Free cash flow..................($11) outflow
Referring to Part 2 of this series, there are some significant "other" outflows in the company's cash flows that aren't well identified. The treatment of these outflows is up to the investor's judgment, then. More clear disclosure would allow the investor to assess whether these are recurring sorts of outflows or if they will be cleared up at a certain point in the future. For instance, if the company is clearing up an unfunded pension plan, then we add that debt to the current enterprise value and not include the outflow used to fund the plan as an operating outflow. The multiple to free cash flow and operating cash flow, then, would change significantly, as would the valuation one would be willing to accord the company. If one were considering an investment in this company, asking about this line item in the cash flow statement would be a primary point of discovery.

CONFERENCE CALLS

Please see the Motley Fool's Conference Calls page for call information and links to synopses.

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Contributing Writers
Yi-Hsin Chang (TMF Puck), a Fool
Brian Graney (TMF Panic), Fool Two
Alex Schay (TMF Nexus6), Fool, too
Dale Wettlaufer (TMF Ralegh), Final Fool

Editing
Brian Bauer (TMF Hoops), another Fool
Bob Bobala (TMF Bobala), a Fool's Fool
Jennifer Silber (TMF Amused), Fool at last