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Paper and wood products manufacturer Boise Cascade Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BCC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BCC)") end if %> jumped $2 3/8 to $32 9/16 after reporting a fiscal Q2 loss (before charges) of $0.04 per share, which was not as bad as the $0.11 per share loss expected by First Call. The results do not include an $81 million ($1.16 per share) write-off for a restructuring of its wood products business and a revaluation of certain paper assets. CEO George Harad said the Asian financial crisis will continue to hurt the company's exports to that region in the near term, but he regards the situation as a "temporary phenomenon." Other companies in the paper and forest products biz rallied today, as well. Champion International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CHA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CHA)") end if %> added $1 9/16 to $47 13/16 after reporting Q2 EPS of $0.33 and Weyerhaeuser Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WY)") end if %> advanced $2 1/8 to $45 3/4 on Q2 EPS of $0.34. Also, Georgia-Pacific <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GP)") end if %> climbed $2 7/16 to $57 11/16 and Willamette Industries <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WLL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WLL)") end if %> gained $11/16 to $30 3/4.
Source Media <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SRCM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SRCM)") end if %> jumped $10 7/8 to $32 1/4 on rumors that the company is very close to being acquired by another firm, which would finally end the merger speculation that has swirled around the company for several weeks now. The rumor mill has churned out America Online <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") end if %> and Microsoft <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") end if %> as the two most likely buyers, with bids somewhere in the $40 - $45 per share range. Portal firms Yahoo! <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") end if %> and Excite <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: XCIT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: XCIT)") end if %> are also supposedly in the hunt. The company provides on-demand information, services, and Internet access via cable lines and digital set-top boxes. Microsoft presently provides cable-based Internet access through its WebTV Networks unit, and AOL bought WebTV rival NetChannel just over two months ago.
QUICK TAKES: Telecommunications services provider MCI Communications Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MCIC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MCIC)") end if %> tacked on $2 5/16 to $64 5/16 on reports it will sell all of its Internet assets to Britain's Cable & Wireless <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CWP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CWP)") end if %> for $1.5 billion to $2 billion, which should clear the way for the Justice Department's approval of MCI's proposed merger with WorldCom <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WCOM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: WCOM)") end if %>. Cable & Wireless rose $1 7/16 to $40 13/16 and WorldCom was up $1 3/4 to $52 3/4... Atlanta-based air carrier Delta Air Lines <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DAL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DAL)") end if %> gained $6 5/16 to $142 3/16 after its board approved a plan to repurchase up to $750 million of its common stock over the next 18 months and set a two-for-one stock split payable on or about Nov. 16... Number one PC maker Compaq Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CPQ)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CPQ)") end if %> climbed $13/16 to $33 7/16 after The Wall Street Journal reported that the company's largest-selling $899 PC is also its most profitable. Compaq is scheduled to report its fiscal Q2 results tomorrow.
Investment bank J.P. Morgan <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: JPM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: JPM)") end if %> added $7 9/16 to $133 9/16 after reporting fiscal Q1 EPS of $1.96, beating the First Call mean estimate of $1.90. The company said it has reduced its exposure to emerging Asian markets by 44% since the end of fiscal 1997... Bank of New York <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BK)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BK)") end if %> gained $2 5/16 to $66 1/2 after raising its quarterly dividend to $0.28 per share from $0.26 per share and setting a two-for-one stock split payable on Aug. 13... Marine vessel construction and repair services firm Halter Marine Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: HLX)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: HLX)") end if %> picked up $1 15/16 to $16 5/16 after reporting fiscal Q1 EPS of $0.21, $0.02 better than a year ago and $0.07 ahead of the Street's estimate... Educational software maker The Learning Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TLC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TLC)") end if %> rose $1 3/16 to $31 5/8 after signing a direct product distribution agreement with retailing giant Wal-Mart <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WMT)") end if %>.
Online computer software reseller Software.net Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SWNT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SWNT)") end if %> climbed $4 1/4 to $21 after Credit Suisse First Boston started coverage of the firm with a "buy" rating"... Cancer and autoimmune disease therapies developer IDEC Pharmaceuticals Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IDPH)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IDPH)") end if %> rose $3 5/8 to $26 5/8 after saying higher sales of its Rituxan non-Hodgkins lymphoma drug, which is a collaboration with Genentech <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GNE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GNE)") end if %>, will result in fiscal Q2 EPS of $0.44 -- way ahead of the IBES mean estimate of $0.04 for the period... Pharmaceutical company Dura Pharmaceuticals <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DURA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DURA)") end if %> moved up $3/8 to $22 1/2 after agreeing to buy the marketing rights to the Myambutol tuberculosis drug from American Home Products <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AHP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AHP)") end if %> for $33.5 million in cash plus future payments. Dura also reported fiscal Q2 EPS of $0.17, which was in line with the Street's estimate.
Contract electronics manufacturer Smartflex Systems <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SFLX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SFLX)") end if %> gained $1 3/8 to $8 5/8 after reporting fiscal Q2 EPS of $0.06, beating the Street's estimate of $0.02. Net revenues decreased 5% year-over-year in the first half to $64 million, but gross margins rose to 11.1% from 8.2% during the same period... Independent auto parts manufacturer Lear Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LEA)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LEA)") end if %> gained $1 9/16 to $55 as the company will replace USA Waste Services on the S&P MidCap 400 index. USA Waste is merging with Waste Management <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: WMX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: WMX)") end if %>... Electrical and communications wire and cable maker General Cable Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GCN)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GCN)") end if %> rose $3 7/16 to $31 after reporting fiscal Q2 EPS of $0.48, beating the Street's estimate of $0.45.
Women's apparel retailer Bebe Stores <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BEBE)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BEBE)") end if %> moved up $2 1/2 to $15 1/2 after BancAmerica Robertson Stephens started coverage with a "buy" rating. The investment firm was an underwriter for the firm's initial public offering last month... Beauty and fragrance products distributor Allou Health & Beauty Care <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: ALU)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: ALU)") end if %> rose $15/16 to $9 3/4 after launching its Cosmetics Counter website to sell name-brand cosmetics over the Internet... Pain treatment therapies developer Biomatrix Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BIOX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BIOX)") end if %> gained $3 to $44 7/8 after BancAmerica Robertson Stephens and Vector Securities started coverage with "buy" ratings... Solid rocket propulsion systems and aerospace products maker Cordant Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CDD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CDD)") end if %> was launched $1 7/8 to $44 5/8 after saying its fiscal Q4 earnings will be about 10% higher than the $0.90 per share expected by the Street... Real-time news integrator and provider NewsEdge Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NEWZ)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NEWZ)") end if %> picked up $3 1/8 to $12 1/4 after Chase Manhattan <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CMB)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CMB)") end if %> agreed to use the company's service to provide real-time news to 2,700 of its financial traders and other professionals.
Internet browser and enterprise software company Netscape Communications <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NSCP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NSCP)") end if %> fell $2 7/8 to $33 1/2 after research company Zona Research reported that 55% of companies that specify which browser their employees should use now choose Microsoft's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") end if %> Internet Explorer, while 45% pick Netscape Navigator or Communicator. That compares with the 55% corporate market share Netscape had last September when only 32% of companies specified Explorer. Even though the company likes to argue that it is no longer a browser company because it gives its navigation tools away for free, it has still relied on its browser base -- at least until its Netcenter website can become a browser-independent destination. To be sure, a greater percentage of respondents (54%) still use Netscape browsers at work, but this is down from 62% last September. Zona Research conducts a periodic census on Web browser use in the workplace. For each survey, around 250 information technology professionals are randomly selected. This was Zona's seventh Web browser census.
PepsiCo Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PEP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PEP)") end if %> lost $2 1/16 to $39 3/8 on news that sales at its Frito-Lay snack division increased 4% last month, which was less than expected. The world leader in making salty snacks, Frito-Lay has been leading Pepsi's earnings growth this year while the company's beverage business undergoes an overhaul. Apparently, sales of Frito-Lay's fat-free Wow! olestra snacks are cannibalizing business from the company's other low-fat products such as Baked Tostitos, Baked Lays, and pretzels. Meanwhile, sales of Lay's and Ruffles are down compared with last year because of a massive advertising campaign that benefited last year's results. Frito-Lay introduced fat-free Lay's, Ruffles, and Doritos in February and is expected to launch an olestra version of Tostitos this fall. Pepsi is expected to report second quarter earnings next week.
QUICK CUTS: Intel <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %> retreated $1 11/16 to $80 11/16 in advance of the chip maker reporting Q2 EPS of $0.66 after the close of trading... Merrill Lynch & Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MER)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MER)") end if %> fell $2 5/8 to $105 5/16 after reporting Q2 EPS of $1.33, up from $1.25 in the year-ago period, but a penny shy of analysts' mean estimate. Excluding goodwill amortization, the investment bank's Q2 EPS were $1.47, up 14% year-over-year... Investment merchant bank and brokerage Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DLJ)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DLJ)") end if %> lost $1 9/16 to $61 1/2 after reporting Q2 EPS of $1.05 versus $0.79 last year. Analysts had expected EPS of $1.02, according to First Call... Online brokerage E*Trade Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EGRP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EGRP)") end if %> gave back $3 15/16 to $30 9/16 after rocketing up $10 yesterday on news of a $400 million investment by Japanese software company Softbank.
Telecommunications equipment maker Lucent Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: LU)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: LU)") end if %> was down $1 7/16 to $87 15/16 after announcing it has acquired Business Systems plc, a U.K. provider of business communications systems, as it stated it would early last month... PairGain Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PAIR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PAIR)") end if %> dropped $1 3/8 to $15 3/8 after reporting Q2 EPS of $0.16, same as the year-ago quarter... Ascend Communications <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASND)") end if %> descended $3 7/8 to $49 9/16 on speculation that the company probably won't be bought and instead may acquire a small phone-equipment maker such as Advanced Fibre Communications <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AFCI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AFCI)") end if %>... American Bankers Insurance Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ABI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ABI)") end if %> slipped $1 3/4 to $58 in the fallout from Cendant's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CD)") end if %> announcement of greater-than-initially-disclosed accounting irregularities at the former CUC International. Earlier this year, American Bankers agreed to be acquired by Cendant for $3.1 billion in cash and stock.
Vancouver, Washington-based Electric Lightwave <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ELIX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ELIX)") end if %> experienced a power outage, falling $2 5/16 to $11 1/8 after late yesterday announcing that Q2, Q3, and Q4 revenues likely will be, on average, about 8% below analysts' estimates... Power plant development company AES Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AES)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AES)") end if %> lost $2 13/16 to $49 7/16 after announcing that Pakistan wants to cancel two contracts, alleging corruption in the company. AES "strongly denies" the allegations... Service-level management software company Micromuse Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MUSE)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MUSE)") end if %> sank $5 1/4 to $32 3/8 after reporting Q3 EPS of $0.01, an improvement over the loss of $0.23 per share in Q3 1997. The company also announced plans for a secondary offering of 3 million shares.
Electronics contract manufacturer and circuit board fabricator Sanmina Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SANM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SANM)") end if %> shed $1 1/4 to $43 3/4 after reporting Q3 EPS of $0.40 compared with $0.29 in the year-earlier period and analysts' mean estimate of $0.39... Intevac Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IVAC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: IVAC)") end if %>, which makes sputtering systems and related equipment used to manufacture thin-film disks for computer hard disk drives, was cut $15/16 to $9 after reporting Q2 EPS of $0.14, down from last year's $0.26 and analysts' expectations of $0.20... Jefferies Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: JEF)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: JEF)") end if %> fell $1 1/16 to $48 1/2 after the investment bank reported Q2 EPS of $0.76, down from $0.87 in the prior-year period but in line with estimates.
FOOL
ON THE HILL
An Investment Opinion
by
Dale Wettlaufer
Cendant the Defendant
Here's a simple rule for maximizing investment results: Don't invest in scumbags. Seems rather intuitive, doesn't it? Well, maybe not, as some philosophies hold that you must be a scumbag to succeed in this rough-and-tumble world. Machiavelli might have had the right idea, but one has to make adjustments for publicly traded companies. Even if you want to be a scumbag to get your company's stock up, you have to stop and think that the market at some point will figure out things. With so many rational actors involved in the process of properly discounting the value of companies, at some point skullduggery gets found out and pounded to the deck or clawed out like a bent or rusty nail.
So anyway, who let the cat out of the bag yesterday with Cendant <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CD)") end if %>? Somebody yesterday fired off a sale of one million shares of Cendant at $19 1/2, down $2 1/2 from its prior close but only slightly below market by 1:00 p.m. Now, nobody inside Cendant has to have communicated information to anyone at any point for the market to sell it off. There is an information chain of people that has to deal with auditing Cendant's past accounting practices, and the leak could have come from any point in that chain. And no one had to profit directly from moving information from inside the organization to holders of the stock. Someone could have been trying to curry favor with a certain Cendant holder or someone might have been trying to get revenge on Cendant. Human motives are as varied as the pattern of snowflakes, but the bottom line is that somehow -- and not really mysteriously -- information got out yesterday that Cendant would be announcing worse-than-expected information on the audit into the accounting practices of the former CUC International. That's the company with which HFS Inc. merged to form Cendant.
Cendant Chairman Walter Forbes, who built Compucard into CUC and now is the Chairman of the whole shebang, made it clear today that there was a "leak" of information but that he personally has had no part in "wrongdoing" at Cendant. Henry Silverman, who has been the driving force behind the growth of HFS and is currently CEO of Cendant, has been vehement about rooting out the perpetrators of wrongdoing inside the CUC units since the whole "accounting irregularities" thing came to light in mid-April of this year. At that time, the company said the hit to earnings would be in the range of $0.11 to $0.13 per share. Now, the company estimates that EPS could take up to another $0.15 in damage, bringing 1997 net income before charges as low as $0.72 to $0.78 per share.
Looking at the company's press release on this today, investors are trying to figure out if top people at Cendant are directly involved or just not very good operating managers. The list of accounting transgressions is pretty long, suggesting that someone very high up in the CUC organization had to be in on the diablerie. A lower-level person doesn't overstate merger-related charges with what looks like the intent of reversing those charges later to bolster net income. According to Cendant's press release, "Operating results at the former CUC business units were artificially boosted by recording fictitious revenues through inappropriately reversing restructuring charge liabilities to revenues. Many other irregularities were also generated by inappropriate use of these reserves." Like what? one might ask. Hmm, like throwing in all sorts of operating expenditures only tangentially related to merger expenses? Investors should always be wary of that being the case in this day and age of reporting earnings "before one-time charges."
Big-bath accounting is always a danger area because of temptations for managers to use it as a cover for writing off bad projects. A big one-time charge is like a carcass that an alligator stashes in an underwater log. The dead animal's pack has already written it off, but the alligator can return to the carcass many times before it is satiated. All told, according to Cendant 30-40% of CUC's 1997 earnings were fraudulent and 10-20% were genuine accounting errors. So, say goodbye to 50-60% of CUC's 1997 earnings because of fraud and accounting errors for things such as accelerating revenue recognition, under-reserving for software returns, and over-capitalizing expenses. It's also a pretty good bet that the rest of Cendant's books are clean, with Arthur Andersen picking over its books at the same time that it has done a forensic audit on the operations that represent the former CUC. Ernst & Young is also looking over the books in order to save face, having performed the original audits.
The upshot of today's revelations is that Walter Forbes looks very bad, because he either knew about the problems and looked the other way or his financial chief was defrauding the world right under Forbes' nose. Either way, Cendant investors won't want either sort of person running the company in the future. With Forbes sounding on the conference call like he was on a different page than Silverman, it doesn't sound as if those two are in synch, and it's probably not unreasonable to expect that Forbes won't last long.
CEO Henry Silverman sounds as squeaky clean as he has claimed to be all along. The HFS books do not sound tainted. While past earnings at the CUC operations are going to be restated, HFS's do not appear in that same jeopardy. In addition, while the portrayal of earnings at CUC might have been distorted, they don't differ materially from the actual cash flows of the business.
In this case, net operating cash flows may not be altered to a huge degree because what moves out of earnings will be moved into cash inflows by way of decreases in assets and increases in liabilities. For instance, in accounting for membership costs, the outflow for expenditures will go up under the new accounting, since these expenditures were understated or recognized too slowly. That being the case, amortization of capitalized expenditures will speed up. Similarly, cash inflows represented by the merger-related charges will decrease and earnings, as a result, will increase. Higher outflows in many cases will be matched up with higher inflows. Working capital float is almost like equity when it is stable and predictable, as it is in membership-based businesses like these. Therefore, additions to working capital float are tantamount to earnings. They are investable funds whether you call them cash flow or earnings.
In all, there will be changes to the cash flows, changes to the balance sheet, and changes to the income statement. Many of the income statement changes will represent items that money managers ignore to begin with. For instance, it was never so much the earnings for America Online <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") end if %> that people looked at when the media couldn't leave the company alone about its accounting regime. It was always cash flows. No one cared about amortization of membership acquisition costs unless you could see them in the context of the off-income statement investments made in membership-generating investments.
These developments at Cendant change the growth and investment dynamics for the company. Henry Silverman has lost a ton of money and is not happy. He has also taken great pains to demonstrate that he's not pleased with the situation and will be taking the appropriate steps to resolve the problems. There are still some very robust cash flows at the company, and Silverman will want to take this time to get rid of whatever isn't working out, concentrate on some recent acquisitions, and get the stock price up to rebuild the company, if possible.
Related stories:
The Evening News 04/16/98: D-Cendant
The Evening News 04/17/98: D-Cendant, Part 2
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Contributing Writers Yi-Hsin Chang (TMF Puck), a Fool Brian Graney (TMF Panic), Fool Two Alex Schay (TMF Nexus6), Fool, too Dale Wettlaufer (TMF Ralegh), Final Fool
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