DJIA 9096.21 -9.53 (-0.10%) S&P 500 1165.21 +0.08 (+0.08%) Nasdaq 1965.53 +22.49 (+1.16%) Value Line ndx 955.30 -1.86 (-0.19%) 30-Year Bond 106 8/32 -28/32 5.68% Yield
Shares of Internet securities brokerage E*Trade Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EGRP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EGRP)") end if %> rocketed up $10 to $34 1/2 after Japanese software distributor and holding company SOFTBANK announced late Friday that it will take a 27.2% stake in the company for $400 million. Although the companies agreed to price the deal at a premium a little under 5% to Friday's close of $24 1/2, enthusiastic investors bid up the shares of E*Trade, following SOFTBANK's lead based on its investment track record. The software company already owns a 31% interest in Yahoo! <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") end if %>, 35% of GeoCities, and a 71% stake in Ziff-Davis <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ZD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ZD)") end if %>, publisher of PC Magazine and the ZDNet website. The sale of 15.6 million shares expands the share base of E*Trade by approximately 38%. So, with today's action, investors are according E*Trade approximately $500 million in equity value on top of what SOFTBANK has bid. The extra cash in hand will allow E*Trade to continue to add value to its products and build its brand. The market likes the SOFTBANK deal, at least today, and thinks it may hurt competitor Ameritrade <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMTD)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMTD)") end if %>, which dropped $2 11/16 to $36 1/4.
Several computer-related stocks moved higher as we move into the heart of earnings reporting season. Intel <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INTC)") end if %>, which reports late tomorrow, gained $2 5/8 to $82 3/8 as Piper Jaffray raised its Q2 EPS estimate to $0.70 from $0.62, compared with the First Call mean estimate of $0.68. Meanwhile, Microsoft <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") end if %> powered up $4 3/8 to $117 9/16 in anticipation that it will post better-than-expected Q4 earnings on Thursday as well as on reports that Windows 98 is selling better than analysts had predicted. Dell Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DELL)") end if %> picked up another $5 3/8 to $106 3/16 on optimism that sales will improve in the next six months and that distributors' PC inventories are falling. IBM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IBM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IBM)") end if %> inched ahead $7/8 to $119 3/8 after signing a 10-year, $900 million deal to provide computer services to credit reporting firm Equifax Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EFX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EFX)") end if %>. Last but not least, comeback kid Apple Computer <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AAPL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AAPL)") end if %>, which is also reporting earnings this week, rose $1 7/8 to $33 15/16.
International media company Tele-Communications International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TINTA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TINTA)") end if %> jumped $2 to $23 7/8 after announcing that Liberty Media Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LBTYA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LBTYA)") end if %>, the programming arm of cable and telecommunications company Tele-Communications Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TCOMA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TCOMA)") end if %>, has offered to buy all remaining shares of TINTA not owned by TCI Ventures Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TCIVA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TCIVA)") end if %>, which includes Tele-Communications' principal international assets and its non-cable and non-programming domestic assets. TCI Ventures owns 83% of TINTA's Class A shares and all of its Class B shares, which together represents 92% of the voting power. TINTA shareholders would receive 0.58 share of Series A Liberty Media group common stock for each share of TINTA Class A stock. As of Friday's close, that values TINTA at $24.11 a share, a 10% premium to its last close at $21 7/8. Liberty Media and TCI Ventures will be combined as part of AT&T's planned $48 billion acquisition of Tele-Communications.
QUICK TAKES: Media conglomerate Time Warner <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TWX)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TWX)") end if %> added $2 3/4 to $89 3/4 after its Lethal Weapon 4 action film debuted this past weekend at the number one spot and grossed roughly $34.4 million... Ford Motor Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: F)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: F)") end if %> motored ahead $1 9/16 to $59 7/16 as Chairman Wayne Booker this week plans to meet with officials of the South Korean government and Kia Motors regarding a possible bid to take over the foundering automaker... Egghead.com <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EGGS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EGGS)") end if %> shot up another $4 11/16 to $26 1/8 on continuing optimism on the PC reseller's earnings prospects... Gemstar International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GMSTF)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: GMSTF)") end if %> rose $1 7/8 to $42 after the interactive TV technology company adopted a "poison pill" to prevent United Video Satellite Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: UVSGA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: UVSGA)") end if %> from taking over the company by buying a majority of shares in the public market.
Fish oil company Zapata Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ZAP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ZAP)") end if %> rocketed $5 5/16 higher to $22 1/2 after its new Internet unit, ZAP Corp., announced it is buying privately held CoolChat Inc., a 300,000-member online discussion area, for an undisclosed sum... Database marketing firm Fingerhut Cos. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FHT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FHT)") end if %> moved up $3 1/16 to $37 5/8 after saying it has acquired a stake in privately held PC Flowers & Gifts Inc., which sells flowers online... Healthcare facilities operator Sun Healthcare Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SHG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SHG)") end if %> jumped $1 11/16 to $17 3/8 after announcing that the Department of Justice has dropped its investigation of the company and that the Department of Health and Human Services won't take civil action against the company... BioTime Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BTIM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BTIM)") end if %> gained $1 3/16 to $9 3/16 in anticipation of the synthetic blood-plasma extender speaking at an investor conference for the first time in several years.
Digital audio and video tools provider Avid Technology <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AVID)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AVID)") end if %> tacked on $1 3/8 to $29 5/8 after announcing that starting this summer the CNN News Group, including CNN/U.S., CNNfn, CNN International, and Headline News, will upgrade more than 1,300 existing newsroom workstations to the AvidNews Newsroom Computer System... Digital loop systems manufacturer Advanced Fibre Communications <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AFCI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AFCI)") end if %> rang up $4 1/8 to $24 1/8 after Hambrecht & Quist reiterated a "buy" rating after visiting the company. H&Q said the company's fundamentals remain strong... Templeton Russia Fund <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: TRF)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: TRF)") end if %> added $1 9/16 to $25 9/16 while the Morgan Stanley Russia & New Europe Fund <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: RNE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: RNE)") end if %> rose $1 5/8 to $18 5/8 on news that the Russian government and the International Monetary Fund have finally agreed on the terms of a loan that would bolster confidence in the market and in the ruble.
Andrea Electronics <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AND)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AND)") end if %> rose $1 7/16 to $13 3/8 after announcing that IBM <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IBM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IBM)") end if %> has chosen the company's PC headsets and microphones to be sold with certain IBM Aptiva PCs beginning in Q3... Cape Cod Bank & Trust <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CCBT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: CCBT)") end if %> gained $2 1/4 to $46 1/4 after reporting Q2 EPS of $0.73, up from $0.59 last year. The bank also raised its dividend by $0.02 and plans a 2-for-1 stock split... Leap Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LEAP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LEAP)") end if %> lived up to its name and leapt $3 25/32, or 117.5%, to $7 as its Quantum Leap Communications Internet advertising subsidiary clenched a deal to provide its services to BroadVision Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BVSN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BVSN)") end if %>... Landair Services <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LAND)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LAND)") end if %> was lifted $2 3/8 to $30 3/4 after announcing plans to split the company into two publicly traded entities, a truckload carrier business called Landair Corp. and a forward air business that will go by Forward Air Corp.
SI Technologies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SISI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: SISI)") end if %>, which designs systems that enhance the processing, handling, and transportation of goods and materials, jumped $2 1/4 to $7 7/8 after announcing it will acquire Allegany Technology Inc., a maker of force enforcement equipment, for an undisclosed sum and Revere Transducers Inc., which makes electronic weighing load cells and sensors, from Harnischfeger Industries <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HPH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HPH)") end if %> for around $10.4 million in cash... Interactive messaging systems company First Virtual Holdings <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FVHI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FVHI)") end if %> surged $1 7/8, or 40.5%, to $6 1/2 after announcing it has signed a nonbinding letter of intent to acquire Email Publishing Inc.
Home healthcare products supplier Lincare Holdings <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LNCR)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LNCR)") end if %> sank $5 1/4 to $37 3/8 after the U.S. Attorney in Sacramento, California subpoenaed documents from the company about its home oxygen therapy business for beneficiaries of federal healthcare programs in 1995 and 1996. The company denies any wrongdoing and said it is cooperating with the investigation. Reportedly, the company received the subpoenas last month and plans to submit a first batch of documents by the end of the month. The inquiry is focusing on five of the firm's operating centers in California and Oregon. Lincare, which provides oxygen equipment to sufferers of emphysema and other respiratory ailments in 39 states, is very dependent on government-funded health programs for its revenues. The firm derived 63% of its fiscal 1997 revenues from reimbursements from the Medicare and Medicaid programs.
Offshore and land drilling company Rowan Companies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: RDC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: RDC)") end if %> fell $1 5/16 to $17 7/16 after reporting fiscal Q2 EPS of $0.50, missing the Street estimate of $0.55. The company said unstable oil and gas prices are challenging its financial goals for fiscal 1998. Other drillers fell as well on continued concern that some oil exporting countries won't stick to agreed-upon production cuts. Ensco International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ESV)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ESV)") end if %> slid $1 7/16 to $15 1/16, Diamond Offshore Drilling <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DO)") end if %> lost $1 5/16 to $34 5/16, and Global Marine <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GLM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GLM)") end if %> dropped $1 1/8 to $16 1/2. Cliffs Drilling <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CDG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CDG)") end if %> slipped $2 7/16 to $24 1/16 and Santa Fe International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SDC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SDC)") end if %> fell $1 1/2 to $25 3/4. Oil services firms fell as well. EVI Weatherford <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: EVI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: EVI)") end if %> lost $1 1/8 to $32 11/16, Pride International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PDE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PDE)") end if %> sank $2 1/16 to $12 7/16, National-Oilwell <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: NOI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: NOI)") end if %> slumped $1 5/16 to $24 15/16, and Smith International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SII)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SII)") end if %> was knocked down $1 11/16 to $31.
QUICK CUTS: Number one automaker General Motors <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") end if %> dropped $2 5/16 to $68 7/8 after face-to-face talks with the United Auto Workers regarding strikes at two Flint, Michigan plants broke down this weekend... Sneaker maker Fila Holdings <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: FLH)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: FLH)") end if %> stumbled $1 5/8 to $12 1/8 after warning on Friday that it will report a fiscal Q2 loss between $1.48 and $1.62 per American depositary share due to "unusually" soft sales. The Street had been expecting a $0.46 per share loss in the period... Semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment maker Applied Materials <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMAT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMAT)") end if %> slid $15/16 to $28 9/16 after saying late Friday that earnings in Q3 will be be between $0.15 and $0.18 per share, below the Street estimate of $0.21 per share.
Networking hardware and software maker Digi International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DGII)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DGII)") end if %> fell $3 1/2 to $21 9/16 after saying its fiscal Q4 earnings will not "be in the same range" as its fiscal Q3 results due to acquisition and restructuring charges, higher costs, and expected changes in its product mix. The company sees its fiscal Q3 EPS from operations coming in between $0.37 and $0.39... Consumer services giant Cendant Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CD)") end if %> tumbled $3 1/8 to $18 7/8 on speculation that its audit report, which is due by the end of this month, will be delayed and will contain bad news. In related news, NationsBanc Montgomery Securities moved a 1 million share block trade of Cendent stock today, according to Bloomberg News.
Sirrom Capital Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SIR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SIR)") end if %> lost another $1 7/16 to $14 13/16 after the small business lender said on Friday that it will take a larger-than-expected write-down in fiscal Q2. Today, Wheat First Union downgraded the stock to "hold" from "buy"... Semiconductor automated fabrication systems developer PRI Automation <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PRIA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PRIA)") end if %> fell $1 to $15 1/16 after saying it will cut 15% of its workforce and take a $5 to $7 million charge in fiscal Q3 to restructure. The company also sees a Q3 loss (before charges) between $0.12 and $0.16... Automated wafer fabrication systems maker Novellus Systems <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NVLS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: NVLS)") end if %> dropped $1 3/16 to $33 7/8 on downgrades from Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette and BancAmerica Robertson Stephens... Supplemental insurance provider AFLAC Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AFL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AFL)") end if %> slipped $1 1/8 to $36 1/8 after being downgraded by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette.
Home improvement products retailer HomeBase Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HBI)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HBI)") end if %> lost $5/8 to $9 3/8 on a downgrade to "hold" from "buy" from Prudential Securities... Oil and gas production, transport, and storage company Coastal Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: CGP)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: CGP)") end if %> fell $13/16 to $33 7/16 after the Pakistani government said it may issue notices to terminate agreements with two company-affiliated independent power projects due to alleged "kickbacks" and other legal violations... Home healthcare services provider Apria Healthcare Group <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AHG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AHG)") end if %> slid $3/16 to $5 15/16 after firing accounting firm Ernst & Young as its auditor. The company said it is currently looking for a replacement... Engineered metals manufacturer Brush Wellman <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BW)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BW)") end if %> sank $2 3/4 to $19 13/16 after saying the slowdown in the Asian and U.S. electronics markets will result in fiscal Q2 earnings "significantly lower" than previously expected.
FOOL
ON THE HILL
An Investment Opinion
by
Alex Schay
Invest Like Gillette
Consumer products giant Gillette <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: G)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: G)") end if %> was off modestly today, down $1 9/16 to $61, as a result of the "Barron's Effect." The Dow Jones & Co. publication ran a cover story this past weekend that questioned Gillette's ability to satisfy earnings growth expectations of roughly 18% for this year, as well as similar projections for next year. The article's central thesis is that Gillette's current valuation is such that even a slight disappointment in sales of the company's new razor system -- the Mach 3 -- could potentially upset the firm's ability to meet the numbers already built into its share price, although unit calculations and quantitative analysis beyond the current period were not considered.
Much of the bullish case that can be made for Gillette relies on the continued ability of its management to successfully allocate capital, or more to the point, trust in the company's recent capital allocation decisions. When Gillette introduced its Sensor razor, Mach 3's predecessor "line" and the product to which Mach 3 is continually compared, it had initial production capacity for the product of 300 million units, which eventually was ramped up to 800 million units.
This time around, before the end of November, Gillette will have Mach 3 capacity of 1.3 billion units -- allowing the company to make its bid for world conquest in 2 to 2 1/2 years compared to 4 years for Sensor. Overall, Gillette estimates that Mach 3's growth will be three times faster than Sensor, thanks largely to capacity being in place for the forced transfer of preferences. Since last September the company has been slowly shifting costs to inventory, which will penalize the income statement in the short term, but will set the stage for a multi-year blitz. By year-end, Gillette expects the ratio of razor sales to blades to grow substantially, as 75% of existing Gillette users make the switch to Mach 3 and the 25% of the market that Gillette doesn't already own begins to defect (which means roughly 7% greater market penetration). This, of course, will mean that Gillette's margins should necessarily suffer during the adoption period because they won't be loaded with higher margin blade sales. The upshot though is some pretty grand acceleration going into next year and beyond. The point being, the focus should not be on how Gillette does over the next year, but what it can do over the next three years and beyond.
What could justify this tremendous confidence? A whole lot of research for one. Mach 3 has been in development for three years and has been the focus of thousands of consumer tests. The key element that distinguishes the Mach 3 from other razors, including all of Gillette's other lines, is that the company found during the course of its research that consumers were dissatisfied when faced with the prospect of going back to their old razor once they tried the Mach 3. Fewer strokes, less pain, and the like all contributed to the claims. Now, this is the kind of hype that will eventually make its way into ad campaigns, but the majority of anecdotal reports batted about recently seem to confirm this claim. The Mach 3 is simply a more pleasant shaving experience.
The point of this column, though, is not to tout the virtues of Mach 3, but to dispel the notion that trust in management is a sucker's game, amounting to slavish or cult-like devotion. It's not blind faith, it's a track record -- and one of the few types of track records that investors can try and use in order to deal with future expectations. While business and strategic positioning will shift, if investors can trust that management will successfully allocate capital to the best of its ability and act with integrity -- based on a past record of continually striving to do so -- then a major amount of investment headaches can be averted. Again, this doesn't mean that management is infallible or that investors shouldn't be critical, but that management has done right by shareholders in the past.
Indeed, Gillette's capital allocation has been superb over the last decade. One has to look no further than its acquisition of Duracell in September of 1996. Here were some of the assumptions at the time: Gillette's international sales and distribution capacity would allow for an acceleration in Duracell's earnings growth rate as its products were introduced to the benefits of these new channels; elimination of redundant functions could save the company $80-$100 million over the course of two years; and finally, Gillette could reduce Duracell's cash tax burden by 250-300 basis points. Subtracting $600 million from the corporate value of Duracell's debt gave Duracell an equity value of $6 billion at the time.
The present value of the synergies outlined above were projected to be roughly $2.4 billion, which when added to the equity value put the total value at $8.4 billion. With Gillette paying $7.2 billion for the deal, roughly $1.2 billion in shareholder value was projected. Taking a look at Duracell's performance over the last two years, it can be seen that many of those projections have been met or exceeded. Knowing that on any given day during the year Gillette has roughly 12 takeover candidates under consideration should be heartening to Gillette investors. Overall, Warren Buffet describes this trust factor best:
"I have turned down business deals that were otherwise decent deals because I didn't like the people I would have to work with. I didn't see any sense in pretending. To get involved with people who cause your stomach to churn--I say it's a lot like marrying for money. It's probably a bad idea under any circumstances, but it's absolutely crazy if you're already rich, right?"
Please see the Motley Fool's Conference Calls page for call information and links to synopses.
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Contributing Writers Yi-Hsin Chang (TMF Puck), a Fool Brian Graney (TMF Panic), Fool Two Alex Schay (TMF Nexus6), Fool, too Dale Wettlaufer (TMF Ralegh), Final Fool
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