DJIA 9106.25 +16.47 (+0.18%) S&P 500 1164.33 +5.77 (+0.50%) Nasdaq 1943.04 +3.22 (+0.17%) Value Line ndx 957.16 -2.11 (-0.22%) 30-Year Bond 107 4/32 -10/32 5.63% Yield
Shares of Mexican radio broadcaster Grupo Radio Centro <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: RC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: RC)") end if %> jumped $1 15/16 to $12 3/8 after radio station operator Chancellor Media Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMFM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMFM)") end if %> agreed to acquire a 50% non-controlling stake through a cash and stock deal valued at about $237 million. GRC has an estimated 38% share of the Mexican radio market, where it operates 15 stations, including 13 in Mexico City alone. It also owns the OIR radio network, which provides programming to more than 90 affiliates in another 57 Mexican cities. The investment rounds out a busy week for Chancellor and its majority owner, investment firm Hicks, Muse, Tate & Furst, which also sold U.S. TV station operator LIN Television to Chancellor on Tuesday. With the GRC stake, the company can tap even more into the fast-growing market for Hispanic-oriented programming in the U.S., especially around Chancellor's homebase of Texas.
Adams Golf Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADGO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ADGO)") end if %>, maker of the Tight Lies line of woods aimed at helping duffers get out of jams and get rid of their long irons, rose $2 3/8 to $18 3/8 on its first day of trading. The company sold 6 million shares in its initial public offering, 250,000 more than expected due to heavy demand. By 2:00 p.m. the shares offered this morning had already changed hands once, even though the offering was priced at the very top of its $14 to $16 per share price range. The firm's revenues exploded in fiscal 1997, rising by more than a factor of ten to $36.7 million from the year-ago period. Its clubs are essentially niche products, which should steer Adams clear of club industry heavyweight Callaway Golf <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: ELY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: ELY)") end if %>. Observers tried to explain the strong response to the IPO by citing the still strong U.S. economy, the wane of crazy El Nino-induced weather, and the onset of summer, which tends to get Wall Streeters thinking about hitting the courses instead of the bourses.
QUICK TAKES: Entertainment giant Walt Disney Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") end if %> added $1 1/8 to $38 1/8 as its three-for-one stock split went into effect after yesterday's close. The company will also open its flagship ESPN Zone eatertainment emporium in Baltimore tomorrow... Shaving products and batteries giant Gillette Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: G)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: G)") end if %> gained $2 15/16 to $ 62 9/16 after an analyst told Business Week that the company's new Mach3 razor is selling well and will be a "huge winner" for the company... Dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chip maker Micron Technology <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MU)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MU)") end if %> rose $11/16 to $29 3/16 as an analyst told Bloomberg News that South Korea's Samsung Corp. and Hyundai Corp. are cutting back on DRAM production, which may help stop the recent price slide for the devices.
Casino operator Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DJT)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DJT)") end if %> gained $3/16 to $7 3/4 after the Wall Street Journal reported that Deutsche Bank will provide $320 million to refinance about $242 million principal amount of 11 3/4% mortgage notes linked to the troubled Trump Marina casino in Atlantic City, N.J... Complementary metal oxide silicon (CMOS) chip maker Dallas Semiconductor Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DS)") end if %> picked up $4 5/16 to $34 15/16 after reporting fiscal Q2 EPS of $0.47, which was $0.05 lower than last year's results but sequentially $0.02 higher... Stent and angioplasty balloon developer Arterial Vascular Engineering <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AVEI)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AVEI)") end if %> rose $2 13/16 to $44 13/16 after agreeing to buy the coronary catheter lab business of health care products maker C. R. Bard <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: BCR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: BCR)") end if %> for about $550 million in cash.
Biotechnology company Biogen Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BGEN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BGEN)") end if %> climbed $2 7/16 to $54 after Deutsche Bank Securities upgraded the company to "buy" from "accumulate"... Discount general merchandise retailer Dollar General Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DG)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DG)") end if %> advanced $2 13/16 to $44 15/16 on news that it will join the S&P 500 Index on July 15. The company will replace Giant Food <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(AMEX: GFS.A)") else Response.Write("(AMEX: GFS.A)") end if %>, which is being acquired by Dutch supermarket operator Royal Ahold N.V... Engineering and architectural software firm Eagle Point Software Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EGPT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: EGPT)") end if %> rose $1 1/8 to $9 3/4 after saying a positive business environment and cost-cutting efforts will result in fiscal Q4 earnings of $0.05 per share. The company said the Street had been expecting breakeven results for the period.
Thermal transfer bar code and plastic card printer maker Eltron International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ELTN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ELTN)") end if %> gained $2 3/8 to $32 7/8 after agreeing to be acquired by thermal label printer manufacturer Zebra Technologies Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ZBRA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ZBRA)") end if %> in a stock swap valuing Eltron at $36 per share. The previously planned merger between the companies fell apart in November 1996... International long-distance phone service provider Star Telecommunications <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: STRX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: STRX)") end if %> rang up $2 3/16 to $19 15/16 after Hambrecht & Quist reiterated its "strong buy" rating following the stock's addition to the Russell 3000 and 2000 indices on Wednesday... Grocery store operator Safeway <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SWY)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SWY)") end if %> added $1 5/16 to $41 1/2 after PaineWebber upgraded the stock to "attractive" from "neutral."
Platform-migration and payment processing systems developer UniComp Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: UCMP)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: UCMP)") end if %> jumped $1 7/16 to $4 5/16 after its Unibol subsidiary signed a licensing agreement with German logistics provider Alpha Management to install application rehosting software in McDonald's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: MCD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: MCD)") end if %> restaurants throughout Europe... Insulation and roofing products maker Johns Manville Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: JM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: JM)") end if %> tacked on $15/16 to $16 3/4 after Credit Suisse First Boston started coverage with a "buy" rating... Hospital operator Tenet HealthCare <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: THC)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: THC)") end if %> rose $1 to $29 5/16 after the Philadelphia Inquirer reported that the firm may bid for Pennsylvania's troubled Allegheny health care and hospital system.
Erectile dysfunction treatment developer Vivus Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VVUS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: VVUS)") end if %> fell $1 7/32 to $6 1/2 after reporting a second quarter loss of $0.55 a share (before charges) compared with earnings of $0.28 for the same year-ago period. Analysts had expected a loss of $0.45. Although Vivus shares rose on Pfizer's <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: PFE)") end if %> coattails, thanks to investors who thought the company would benefit from heightened interest in Pfizer's Viagra impotence pill, domestic demand for Vivus' MUSE product has dropped about 70% since the launch. Second quarter revenues totaled $16 million, down from $33.5 million in the year-earlier period and $26.5 million in Q1. There was a ray of sunshine abroad for Vivus, though. Revenues rose to $9.8 million from $2 million in the preceding quarter as the company's international marketing partners, Janssen Pharmaceutica and Astra AB <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: A)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: A)") end if %>, began launching MUSE in various countries. Of course, Viagra has yet to be approved for marketing globally, so Vivus hasn't had to face competition overseas.
Sirrom Capital Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: SIR)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: SIR)") end if %> crashed $9 1/4 to $16 3/16 on over 100 times its average daily volume after announcing that even though it expects second quarter pre-tax operating earnings to meet the mean analyst estimate of $0.33 per share, the company will take a larger-than-expected write-down and lose $8.9 million on loans and investments made to two companies. Nashville, Tenn.-based Sirrom, which raised $153 million in its initial public offering in March, makes loans of $500,000 to $5 million at high fixed-term rates to companies sponsored by the Small Business Administration. The loans generally involve warrants allowing Sirrom to acquire equity in the borrower at a nominal price. The two companies that have thrown a monkey wrench in Sirrom's business were recently consolidated as part of a restructuring plan and are "not likely" to pay back their loans in full.
QUICK CUTS: Ford Motor Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: F)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: F)") end if %> fell $1 1/8 to $57 7/8 on fresh reports that it may make a joint bid with 33.4%-owned Mazda Motor Corp. for the assets of South Korea's failed Kia Motors Corp. Ford already owns a 9.4% stake in Kia, while Mazda holds 7.5%... Chemicals company DuPont <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DD)") end if %> shed another $2 to $68 1/8 in the wake of warning that it expects Q2 EPS to be up to 10% to 15% short of last year's $0.99... Amazon.com <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMZN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMZN)") end if %> dropped $6 to $99 1/2 as BancAmerica Robertson Stephens expressed concern about the stock's valuation and that the shares are due for a short-term correction. Other Internet stocks fell as well. Lycos <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LCOS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: LCOS)") end if %> dipped $3 5/16 to $67 5/8, while Yahoo! <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") end if %> slipped $2 3/4 to $181 1/4.
PETCO Animal Supplies <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PETC)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PETC)") end if %> plummeted $8 1/4 to $11 1/16 after announcing that it expects Q2 EPS of $0.10 to $0.12 (before charges), short of analysts' mean estimate of $0.21... Pet food and supply superstore chain PETsMART Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PETM)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: PETM)") end if %> was dogged today, losing $1 5/16 to $8 3/4 after warning late yesterday that it expects Q2 EPS to be between breakeven and a loss of $0.02, short of analysts' mean estimate of a $0.02 profit listed in First Call. (PETsMART's CFO talked to the Motley Fool recently on StockTalk)... Industrial supplies distributor Fastenal Co. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FAST)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: FAST)") end if %> dropped $7 1/2 to $43 3/4 after reporting Q2 EPS of $0.37, up from $0.28 and just below the analysts' mean estimate of $0.38. Business was adversely impacted by the economic turmoil in Asia, the General Motors <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: GM)") end if %> strike, and severe storms. If the GM strike continues, the company estimates lost sales of $500,000 a month.
Multimedia accelerator Diamond Multimedia Systems <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DIMD)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DIMD)") end if %> fell $5/8 to $6 3/8 after reporting a Q2 loss of $0.21 (before charges) a share compared with a loss of $1.29 per share in the year-earlier period. Analysts had expected a penny per share profit... Outsourcing healthcare management services company HealthPlan Services <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: HPS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: HPS)") end if %> lost $1 3/8 to $16 9/16 after warning that Q2 EPS will be below analysts' estimates largely due to increased costs and an unanticipated decline in business with two large customers. The company expects to soon announce a major restructuring aimed at cutting costs... Internet business solutions company Icon CMT Corp. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ICMT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ICMT)") end if %> plunged $4 1/2 to $14 1/2 after announcing it expects to report a Q2 loss of $0.35 to $0.37 a share (before charges), higher than the $0.28 loss projected by analysts.
"Integrated relationship marketer" Damark International <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DMRK)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: DMRK)") end if %> sank $1 5/8 to $7 after announcing it expects to report a Q2 loss of $0.60 to $0.65 a share, substantially below expectations of a $0.01 profit... International Network Services <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INSS)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: INSS)") end if %> tumbled $4 1/8 to $41 1/2 after BT Alex. Brown cut its rating on the internal computer networks designer to "buy" from "strong buy"... Trimble Navigation <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TRMB)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: TRMB)") end if %> shed $1 3/16 to $14 9/16 after announcing it will break even in Q2, down from a profit of $0.17 a share a year ago... Semiconductor production technology firm Applied Science & Technology <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASTX)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: ASTX)") end if %> tanked $1 1/16 to $6 1/2 after announcing that it expects fiscal Q4 earnings to be at or slightly below breakeven due to continuing decline in the semiconductor industry. Analysts had predicted EPS of $0.09.
Bel Fuse Inc. <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BELFA)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: BELFA)") end if %>, which makes devices used in computer local area networks and other telecommunications, business equipment, and consumer electronic applications, dropped $2 1/4 to $20 1/2 after announcing that shareholders have approved the company's plan to issue a new voting Class A stock (BELFA) and a new non-voting Class B stock (BELFB) and reclassify each current company share as one-half share of Class A stock and one-half share of Class B stock.
FOOL
ON THE HILL
An Investment Opinion
by
Louis Corrigan
Internet Insanity Redux
Whenever I write about Internet companies, readers chastise me for failing to warn individual investors of the risks. So to address what's so obvious that it sometimes goes unsaid, here's a word about risk.
The market is a voting machine, not a weighing machine, as Ben Graham famously said. It does not work like a scale to spit back a precise measurement of a company's worth. Rather, it gives you a daily tally of how the people, some driven by blind emotion, are voting. But even when the majority of voters favor, say, the death penalty, that doesn't make it right. Serious investors must operate with their own scale comparing a measured view of reality with the sometimes intemperate view of the populace. That means you shouldn't buy a stock that you believe to be overvalued (or have no idea how to value) simply because you think it will go up. That's the proverbial greater fool (small f) theory: a stock's price today may seem nutty, but someone even nuttier will pay you more for it tomorrow.
In buying an ownership stake in a business, you want to pay what it is worth in economic terms. When too many people ignore this goal, the madness of crowds begins to exert its inexorable logic. Momentum investors jump on simply because a stock is rising. Folks who have made a killing margin their accounts to buy more stock. Others late to the game pay any price to get a piece of the action. That's why a stock's price can go straight up. While sophisticated speculators may play this game with a certain degree of cynicism and skill, the game only works if there's a large contingent of market participants who don't know any better, who are oblivious to the mania in which they're participating, who will insist that a stock's rise makes sense, that stories of tulip bulbs and South Sea Bubbles are irrelevant.
Yet, if you take a tour through our Daily Trouble archives, you'll find that stocks that go straight up do indeed collapse. Drops of 50% to 75% from the highs are fairly common. Look at a chart for Iomega <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: IOM)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: IOM)") end if %> or the recent action in K-tel <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: KTEL)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: KTEL)") end if %>. An implosion can be swift as speculators become literally spent. A correction turns into a full-fledged reversal as margin calls lead to more selling, which leads to more margin calls. Major ugliness. Many companies working the broad Internet space have been touched by mild to full-fledged versions of this mania, and the end result is predictable enough. Even the very best businesses, the ones likely to be giants ten years from now, can easily see their stocks sliced in half. People investing in Internet-related stocks who aren't aware of this risk or don't know the reference to tulip bulbs should seriously consider selling these stocks until they understand better what they're doing.
That said, I'm often equally astonished by the ridiculous comments coming from the bears and skeptics. For example, anyone who says to you that what goes up must come down is simply lazy and undiscriminating. K-tel at its high was more overvalued than any of the tier one Internet companies will ever be because it simply doesn't have a meaningful future as an Internet business whereas other companies, however overvalued, actually have terrific businesses. That's why its stock will continue to fall and will eventually stay down and others will likely correct but eventually provide value for shareholders who didn't pay too much. Physics has nothing to do with it. Let's look at a few other common remarks.
The Internet frenzy is like the biotech mania of the '80s. To a limited extent, this analogy works. Out of dozens of hot biotechs, only a handful have become an Amgen <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMGN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMGN)") end if %>, whereas most have disappeared or will eventually. Many smaller outfits with one real product have been taken over by major pharmaceutical companies. Similarly, giants such as Disney <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: DIS)") end if %> and Microsoft <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: MSFT)") end if %> have already begun snatching up viable small fry in the Internet space.
The analogy breaks down, though, in that the leading Internet firms already have hundreds of thousands if not millions of customers and are generating healthy revenues and sometimes actual profits. By contrast, getting a new drug to market takes, on average, about seven years and tens of millions of dollars. Potential drugs are often derailed along the way by poor trial results, a thumbs down from the FDA, or lack of money. Moreover, most approved drugs fail to match early sales projections due to side effects, competition, reimbursement troubles, and so on. In the land of high-risk investments, many Internet companies are infinitely preferable to your standard biotech because it's much easier for the average investor to know what she's buying, to use the product, check out the competition, and consider meaningful financial results.
These stocks are so overvalued, they're screaming shorts. This comment is often based on a stock's eye-popping price-to-earnings ratio or lack thereof, as if earnings for a young company were a sufficient measure of value. They're not. More important, valuation is never a sufficient reason to short a stock. In shorting, you must be able to borrow shares and to hold onto your position even if the stock rises against you. Many Internet stocks have a small float of actively traded shares, making borrowing and holding the shares difficult. What's more, the Internet is a classic open situation -- meaning that the very difficulty of arriving at a proper valuation means that it's hard to know when these stocks are really overvalued or, more important, when a marketplace fed by mania will reach the inflection point at which the stocks will fall.
Smart short-sellers need a thesis for when and why a stock will fall. The irrational risk-taking of some short-sellers has contributed to the very Internet mania they mock. I personally don't think any of the tier one companies -- for example, America Online <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: AOL)") end if %>, Yahoo! <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: YHOO)") end if %>, or Amazon.com <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMZN)") else Response.Write("(Nasdaq: AMZN)") end if %> -- should be shorted at any price. Sensible shorts have stuck to third-tier companies with poor prospects and significant floats.
The valuations are all crazy. Valuations may seem sky high, but they're not all crazy if you take the trouble to understand each company's market niche and business model. The market is forever trying to move to a price that discounts all a company's future free cash flow by way of a risk-adjusted rate of return. Applying this imperative to an industry in hypergrowth is a process fraught with risks of miscalculation that more mature businesses don't present. Yet generous though reasonable assumptions about long-term prospects can justify prices that may initially seem absurd.
Consider Yahoo!, whose ultralight business allows it to generate gross margins of 88.5% versus 22% for online retailer Amazon or 34% for souped-up Internet access provider America Online. While one could argue about how "sticky" each company's customer base is (how high the costs are to a customer for switching from one of these companies to a competitor), it's clear that Yahoo! could eventually deliver extremely high operating profits. Indeed, a 36% jump in revenues from the first quarter of this year to the second led to a 151% surge in operating profits as margins leaped from 12.1% to 22.3%. With the cost of online ads rising and overall online ad spending growing, Yahoo!'s ad/commerce revenues should continue to soar, boosting operating margins along the way.
America Online's ad/commerce run-rate is about $500 million a year. Though Yahoo! is far behind AOL in that area, its reach seems comparable. Imagine, then, that Yahoo! can do $1 billion in revenues by 2001 with Intel-like operating margins of 50%. Assume a 35% tax rate, and the company would deliver $325 million in net income. Divide that by 65 million shares and you get $5 in earnings per share. Now paying 36 times guesstimated FY01 earnings may not sound like a smart move. In fact, I wouldn't do it. But it's not in any simple sense ludicrous. Indeed, it's about what Coca-Cola <% if gsSubBrand = "aolsnapshot" then Response.Write("(NYSE: KO)") else Response.Write("(NYSE: KO)") end if %> trades for today.
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